Not as Good as You Think Why Middle Class Parents in Illinois Should Be Concerned about Their Local Public Schools by Lance Izumi, J.D. with Alicia Chang, Ph.D. NOT AS GOOD AS YOU THINK Why Middle-Class Parents in Illinois Should Be Concerned about Their Local Public Schools By Lance Izumi, J.D. with Alicia Chang, Ph.D. NOT AS GOOD AS YOU THINK Why Middle-Class Parents in Illinois Should Be Concerned about Their Local Public Schools by Lance Izumi, J.D. with Alicia Chang, Ph.D. Pacific Research Institute One Embarcadero Center, Suite 350 San Francisco, CA 94111 Tel: 415-989-0833 Fax: 415-989-2411 www.pacificresearch.org Download copies of this study at www.pacificresearch.org. Nothing contained in this report is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of the Pacific Research Institute or as an attempt to thwart or aid the passage of any legislation. ©2014 Pacific Research Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this pub- lication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or otherwise, without prior written consent of the publisher. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the Walton Family Foundation for its support of this project. We would like to thank James Lanich, Dave Johnston and the EdResults Partnership for providing the data for the schools analysis. Also, we would like to thank the Illinois Policy Institute for partnering with the Pacific Research Institute (PRI) to launch this study. Wayne Winegarden, Ph.D. peer-reviewed the draft of this study. Any remaining errors or omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors. The au- thors would like to thank graphic designer Dana Beigel for her excellent layout of this study. Finally, the authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of the dedi- cated staff of PRI, including Rowena Itchon, vice president of marketing, Christine Hughes, vice president, and Sally Pipes, president and CEO. In addition, the authors would like to acknowledge the efforts of Chrissie Dong, formerly a member of PRI’s development department, and Laura Dannerbeck, marketing consultant for PRI. The authors of this study have worked independently and their views and conclusions do not necessarily represent those of the board, supporters, or staff of PRI. CONT ENTS Executive Summary .................................................................................... 2 Introduction and Background on “Not as Good as You Think” Research ........ 5 Illinois Testing Standards ........................................................................... 7 NAEP: The Nation’s Report Card Illinois Standards Achievement Test Illinois High School Exams Analysis of Illinois Public Schools ............................................................. 14 The 33/50 Schools Schools Below the Poverty/Performance Line Higher-Performing Illinois Public Schools Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................... 27 Appendix A: .............................................................................................. 31 Linear Regression Analysis of Non-Low-Income Public Illinois Schools Appendix B: .............................................................................................. 38 Illinois Non-Low-Income Schools Performance Endnotes ................................................................................................ 146 About the Authors .................................................................................. 149 About Pacific Research Institute ............................................................. 151 Executive Summary Are regular Illinois public schools with predominantly non-low-income student populations performing well? Many parents at these schools think so, and seemingly high scores on exams such as the Illinois Standards Achievement Test (ISAT) appear to support their confidence. Yet, based on a variety of indi- cators, many of these schools may not be as good as parents think they are. The Illinois Learning Standards in English language arts and math have received “D” grades from the Fordham Institute, which called them “among the worst in the country.” Because the ISAT is aligned with the state standards, it also has inherent weaknesses. Even though the threshold for achieving “proficiency” on the ISAT was raised in 2013, there is a wide disparity between the proficiency rates for non-low-income students on the ISAT and on the more difficult National Assessment for Educational Progress (NAEP), often referred to as the nation’s report card: • On both the 2013 fourth-grade ISAT reading and math tests, 77 percent of non-low-income students scored at the 100 proficient level, and 23 percent did not. In contrast, on the 2013 NAEP fourth- 80 grade reading test, 52 percent of non- 75 low-income Illinois test-takers scored at proficiency, while 48 percent did not. 60 On the NAEP fourth-grade math test, 50 57 percent of non-low-income Illinois 40 students scored at the proficient level, while 43 percent failed to do so. 20 • On the 2013 eighth-grade ISAT reading (non-low-income Illinois students) exam, 75 percent of non-low-income Percent Proficient 2013 8th Grade Reading 0 students scored at proficiency, while 25 ISAT NAEP percent did not. On the 2013 NAEP eighth-grade reading exam, 50 percent Source: Illinois Report Card, National Assessment of Educational Progress of non-low-income Illinois test-takers scored at proficiency, meaning that exact- ly half failed to do so. • On the 2013 eighth-grade ISAT math exam, 73 percent of non-low-income students scored at the proficient level, while 27 percent did not. On the 2013 NAEP eighth-grade math exam, 52 per- cent of non-low-income Illinois test-takers scored at proficiency, while 48 percent failed to do so. Non-low-income Illinois students also have lower proficiency rates on the NAEP compared to similar students in other states such as Massachusetts. In Illinois, there are 1,156 regular public schools where 33 percent or fewer of their students are classi- fied as low income, i.e. schools with predominantly non-low-income student populations. Among these schools, 140, or 12 percent, have 50 percent or more of their students in at least one grade level failing to meet or exceed proficiency on the ISAT or on the Prairie State Achievement Exam (PSAE). Among this group are such schools as: 2 • Gary D. Wright Elementary School in Kane County • Athens Junior High School in Menard County • Yorkville High School in Kendall County • Homewood-Flossmoor High School in Cook County • Somonauk High School in DeKalb County A technique called linear regression-line modeling was used to estimate whether a relationship exists between the percentage of students in a school who are classified as coming from low-income households and the percent of students proficient (at grade level) in the school for a particular grade and subject. This analysis for each grade in reading and math allows for the identification of schools that are perform- ing above or below average performance based on the performance of all other schools in the state. Schools on the regression line itself are performing at the average given the performance of all other schools in the state and the income levels of students, based on low-income and non-low-income classifi- cations. Schools below the regression line are performing below average given the income status of their students, while schools above the regression line are performing above average given the income status of their students. Among the 1,156 regular public schools with 33 percent or fewer of their students coming from low-in- come households, 817 have at least one grade where the subject-matter proficiency rate was below the regression line. In other words, more than 70 percent of these predominantly non-low-income schools had at least one grade where students performed below the average performance of schools with students of the same income status on a subject-matter test. The following is the breakdown of the number of underperforming regular public schools per grade level for reading and math: Number of Schools Number of Schools Grade Underperforming in Reading Underperforming in Math Grade 3 281 269 Grade 4 273 243 Grade 5 277 245 Grade 6 154 175 Grade 7 140 179 Grade 8 140 124 Grade 11 112 107 Source: EdResults Partnership Of course, there is some overlap in the bulleted totals, with some schools listed more than once since they may have multiple grades and/or subjects below the regression line particular to the grade-level sub- 3 ject-matter test. Among the 817 schools not performing up to the average performance of schools with the same percentage of low-income students: • Edison Park Elementary School in Cook County • Prairie View Middle School in Cook County • Grayslake North High School in Lake County • Waterloo High School in Monroe County • Beecher High School in Will County These results should cause non-low-income Illinois parents, many of whom are middle class, to re-think their views on the quality of their neighborhood public schools, and, consequently, to open their minds to other education options, choices, and policy changes that would allow their children to escape under- performing schools and attend better-performing alternatives. Among these alternatives are a variety of school-choice programs: • Sweden’s universal school-choice program that allows all parents of school-age children, regard- less of income, to