University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies The Vault: Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2021-02-11 The history and future of the rare, endemic plant species, Draba yukonensis (Yukon Draba) Jasper, Caroline Jasper, C. (2021). The history and future of the rare, endemic plant species, Draba yukonensis (Yukon Draba) (Unpublished master's thesis). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. http://hdl.handle.net/1880/113098 master thesis University of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission. Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY The history and future of the rare, endemic plant species, Draba yukonensis (Yukon Draba) by Caroline Jasper A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE GRADUATE PROGRAM IN BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES CALGARY, ALBERTA FEBRUARY, 2021 © Caroline Jasper 2021 ABSTRACT Many species in Canada remain poorly characterized regarding the projected impact of climate change. Here, I report my results from species distribution modeling for the rare, Yukon endemic plant, Draba yukonensis. Predicted change in range size in 2070 is an increase of 171375.1- 184318.0 km2, which is surprising considering its limited known range. Overlap of predicted future and current ranges is 96.9-97.4%. Occurrence of protected areas in the predicted future range is 9.7-10.5%. It is possible that D. yukonensis represents a recently originated variety of a more common species that recently experienced polyploidization. I therefore performed phylogenetic analyses to elucidate relationships of D. yukonensis with other Draba species in the Yukon. I found that D. yukonensis is appropriately delineated as a Canadian endemic species and may be an allopolyploid of D. fladnizensis and D. lactea, or, likelier, is closely related to D. lactea. Overall, this work provides important predictions regarding where D. yukonensis could require interventions to aid its conservation. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I would like to thank my incredible Supervisor and mentor, Dr. Jana Vamosi, whose sage advice, dedication to my project, and constant encouragement were immeasurably appreciated. You were there with the perfect thing to say every time I needed it, and I truly admire you. To my committee members, Dr. Marco Musiani and Dr. Mindi Summers, who put in a great deal of effort in reviewing and commenting on my work, thank you for all of your support. Also, I thank Renna Truong of SANDS at the University of Calgary, whose patience while teaching me ArcGIS is commendable. To the teams at the Yukon Conservation Data Centre and Canadian Wildlife Services in the Yukon (including Syd Cannings, Bruce Bennett, Randi Mulder, Kristy Kennedy, and Caitlin Willier), thank you for showing me your beautiful part of the world and helping me attain the data needed to better understand it. Thank you to Dr. Jenny McCune of the University of Lethbridge, whose important work in species distribution modeling is paving the way for newcomers like me. To the Champagne and Aishihik First Nations, thank you for your continued and invaluable land stewardship, which helps to protect Yukon Draba and the other wildlife in your territories. To my family and friends, thank you for constantly checking in and always being there for me. To my best friends, my husband Jeremy and our cats, Crookshanks and Siam, thank you for your sacrifices and infinite love while I pursue my aspirations. iii DEDICATION To my husband, Jeremy. You gave me courage when I felt intimidated, happiness when I cried, and peace when I worried. Thank you for being you. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................. iii DEDICATION .................................................................................................................. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ vi LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION ................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: PREDICTING THE FUTURE DISTRIBUTION OF YUKON DRABA DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ......................................................................................................... 5 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 5 METHODS .................................................................................................................... 10 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 18 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................ 20 TABLES ........................................................................................................................ 28 FIGURES....................................................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 3: UNDERSTANDING THE ORIGIN AND PHYLOGENETIC POSITION OF YUKON DRABA ............................................................................................................. 47 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 47 METHODS .................................................................................................................... 52 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 55 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................ 57 TABLES ........................................................................................................................ 66 FIGURES....................................................................................................................... 68 CHAPTER 4: GENERAL CONCLUSIONS.................................................................... 78 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 82 SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS ................................................................................ 98 v LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1: LIST OF ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES ............................................ 28 TABLE 2.2: AREAS OF CALCULATIONS .................................................................. 30 TABLE 3.1: LIST OF ACCESSIONS.............................................................................. 66 vi LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2.1: SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING ................................................. 31 FIGURE 2.2: YUKON DRABA IMAGE AND KNOWN DISTRIBUTION ................ 33 FIGURE 2.3: SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING GRIDS ........................................................ 35 FIGURE 2.4: TRANSFORMATION OF CONTUNIOUS MAPS TO BINARY MAPS USING THRESHOLDS................................................................................................................. 37 FIGURE 2.5: MEAN CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION MAPS ......... 38 FIGURE 2.6: BINARY DISTRIBUTION MAPS ............................................................ 40 FIGURE 2.7: OVERLAP OF PREDICTED CURRENT AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTIONS MAPS ................................................................................................................................ 43 FIGURE 2.8: OVERLAP OF PROTECTED AREAS AND PREDICTED FUTURE DISTRIBUTION MAPS ................................................................................................... 45 FIGURE 3.1: PHYLOGENETIC TREES AND NETWORKS ....................................... 68 FIGURE 3.2: RANGES OF DRABA SPECIES USED IN THIS STUDY ....................... 70 FIGURE 3.3: MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD TREE FOR CONCATENATED GENES ... 72 FIGURE 3.4: NETWORK ANALYSIS OF CONCATENATED GENES ...................... 74 FIGURE 3.5: IMAGES OF D. YUKONENSIS, D. FLADNIZENSIS, & D. LACTEA ..... 76 FIGURE 3.6: OVERLAP OF RANGES OF D. YUKONENSIS, D. FLADNIZENSIS, & D. LACTEA ............................................................................................................................ 77 FIGURE S1: MAPS OF YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA .......................................... 98 FIGURE S2: MAXIMUM PARSIMONY TREE FOR CONCATENATED GENES .. 100 FIGURE S3: BAYESIAN INFERENCE TREE FOR CONCATENATED GENES .... 101 FIGURE S4: MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD TREE FOR ITS2 ........................................ 102 FIGURE S5: MAXIMUM PARSIMONY TREE FOR ITS2 ......................................... 103 FIGURE S6: BAYESIAN INFERENCE TREE FOR ITS2 ........................................... 104 FIGURE S7: NETWORK ANALYSIS FOR ITS2