RUSSIAN FEDERATION 2011 Short-term Prognosis RUSSIAN FEDERATION 2011 Short-term Prognosis Editor Karmo Tüür RSR artiklite kogumik Toimetajad Andres Kasekamp, Rein Toomla, Karmo Tüür 70. sünnipäeval Editor of “Politica” series: Rein Toomla Copyright: Individual authors, 2011 ISSN 1736–9312 ISBN 978–9949–19–576–3 Tartu University Press www.tyk.ee CONTENTS Introduction. Karmo Tüür ................................................................... 7 Russia 2007: Prognoses and Reality. Erik Terk. ................................... 9 INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION Constitutional Law. Rein Lang ........................................................... 21 Political System. Viatcheslav Morozov ................................................. 25 The Political Role of the Russian Orthodox Church. Alar Kilp .......... 29 Civil Society. Anton Alekseyev ............................................................. 33 Russian Military. Kaarel Kaas ............................................................. 38 Centre vs. Regions. Aimar Ventsel ...................................................... 45 The Centre and the North Caucasus. Jaanus Piirsalu ........................ 49 FOREIGN RELATIONS OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION Russia and WTO. Kristjan Aruoja, Olga Kokoulina ............................ 57 Russia and NATO. Taavo Lumiste ..................................................... 62 Russia and EU. Ahto Lobjakas ............................................................ 69 Russia and OECD. Kairi Saar ........................................................... 73 Russia and Parliamentary Assemblies. Ivar Mölder ............................. 75 Russia and USA. Elvira Tulvik ........................................................... 79 Russia and China. Märt Läänemets ..................................................... 83 Russia and Japan. Akio Kawato .......................................................... 87 Russia and Nordic Countries. Madis Kanarbik ................................... 91 5 Russia and Arctic Region. Dmitri Lanko ............................................ 96 Russia and Germany. Kalvi Noormägi .............................................. 100 Russia and Italy. Villu Varjas ............................................................ 104 Russia and Spain. Hendrik Lõbu ....................................................... 108 Russia and the Balkans. Mart Nutt ................................................... 111 Russia and Middle East. Sven Mikser ................................................ 115 Russia and Kyrgyzstan. Klaus-Eduard Runnel ................................... 118 Russia and Kazakhstan. Raivo Hool .................................................. 123 Russia and Azerbaijan. Andres Herkel ............................................... 127 Russia and Belarus. Silver Meikar ..................................................... 132 Russia and Ukraine. Vahur Soosaar .................................................. 136 Russia and Latvia. Andis Kudors ....................................................... 141 Russia and Lithuania. Arūnas Gražulis ............................................. 146 Russia and Estonia. Karmo Tüür ...................................................... 151 Russia’s Roles in the Frozen Conflicts in the Near-Abroad. Eiki Berg ..................................................................................... 155 Foreign Economic Policy in the Russian Near-Abroad. Mihkel Uus ................................................................................. 159 MISCELLANEOUS Economic Developments. Raivo Vare ............................................... 167 Energy Industry. Andres Mäe ........................................................... 174 Compatriots. Tatyana Kiilo, Yelena Vladimirova .............................. 179 The Politics of Memory. Heiko Pääbo .............................................. 184 Foreign Policy Identity. Toomas Riim .............................................. 189 Disarmament. Matthieu Chillaud ..................................................... 193 Conclusion. Karmo Tüür ................................................................. 198 6 INTRODUCTION Dear colleague! This symposium is special in several ways First, it has a round number. The first symposium prepared by ABVKeskus1 was titled Russian Federation 2001 and the current symposium – Russian Federation 2011. Thus, we have already been into this for ten years and in the modern rapidly changing world it is quite an achievement in itself. Second, this symposium has a flavour of rebirth in it. For some time (2008–2009) the sequence of annual forecasts was dis- continued... due to objective as well as subjective reasons. We have all felt financial pressures and – there is no point to pretend otherwise – sometimes even gnawing doubts about the usefulness of the whole project. Third, the circumstances have changed again. In 2010 ABVKeskus was finally institutionalised and blessed with commen- dable sponsors – Open Estonia Foundation, the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute and the Institute of Government and Politics of the University of Tartu. It provided us with an opportunity to come up with another crucial initiative in addition to the website, mailing list and forecasts – the meetings of experts of ABVKeskus in Tartu (monthly meetings of local and foreign experts). Let’s hope that our joint efforts will be increasingly fruitful in future. And for that I have to thank all those great people who embody the flesh and blood of ABVKeskus – the members of 1 http://www.ut.ee/ABVKeskus 7 ABVKlist2. Some of you have been with ABVKeskus since its very beginning in autumn 1997 and some of you joined us later, but all of you are equally important. Without you, all of this would be pointless. My special thanks go to the co-authors who agreed to contribute their time and energy without remuneration of any kind (and no grumbling to speak of). I would also like to express my deep gratitude to Toomas Roolaid, who helped create a legal person for ABVKeskus, and Andrei Krashevsky, who translated the parts of the symposium that needed translation. And it goes without saying that I appreciate all those organisations whose financial support allowed you, my dear reader, to hold in your hands The Russian Federation 2011: A Short-Term Forecast. Karmo Tüür December 2010 Tartu 2 An electronic forum bringing together around 60 experts and interested non-professionals (as of the end of 2010). 8 RUSSIA 2007: PROGNOSES and REALITY Erik Terk Writing of this assessment not immediately after the end of the year set as the object of the forecasts but after a sufficient period of time, in 2010, allows one to judge the content of the forecast documents from a distance and make use of hindsight. It may well be somewhat unfair towards the authors in some cases. After all, their main task was to predict what would happen in 2007. Also, the issue of how much of the forecasts was realised in that particular year tends to become of secondary importance when viewed from a greater distance. Moreover, observing the forecasts for a year against the background of later and crucial events (e.g. the Russian-Georgian war of 2008) may lead to the judging of the texts not on how well the authors could predict the dynamics of 2007 with the entire spectrum of possibilities emerging at that time, but rather on the text’s apparent success in explaining the “inevitability” of the development alternative realised due to the coincidence of circum- stances and decisions made at a later period than the forecast year. At the same time an approach considering the later developments would certainly be of greater interest to the reader. Since a number of the authors of the forecasts did not limit themselves to merely attempting to predict the events of the coming year in their articles produced at the end of 2006, but attempted to analyse Russia’s development trends in a broader and longer perspective, I think 9 ERIK TERK some “Monday morning quarterbacking” type of arguments should be also permitted in this hindsight article. One can apparently argue that Russia’s current development model, which could be described as corporative capitalist and possesses a big share of great-power ambitions as an inseparable feature, had clearly formed well before 2006. The term liberal empire mentioned in some forecast texts had already become definitely outdated by the time of those forecasts and rather belonged to the ideas of the beginning of the decade. Effectively, all authors of the forecasts presumed that the established model would continue in 2007, which turned out to be correct. Accordingly, one has to admit that the forecasts in general were adequate, but they were not always able to foresee the modifications of the established basic model or its efficiency in all given spheres. 2007 had nothing surprising to offer as to the sphere of politics and ideology in comparison with the published forecasts ( E.Mikkel, V.Yushkin, A. Ventsel, M. Lotman). The centralised control system, which maintained its influence over the party political spectrum, the regional administrative level and key business activities, was operating practically without setbacks. In case of political parties the criterion was not ideological opposition but the parties’ distance from the Kremlin as the power centre (Mikkel). The political spectrum was manipulated by the power centre to such a degree that the outcome of the elections at the end of 2007 was clearly