University of Tartu Faculty of Science and Technology Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences Department of Geography Master’s thesis in Geoinformatics for Urbanised Society (30 ECTS) A GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation of the wind energy potential of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts of Ukraine Denys Dmytrenko Supervisor: PhD Ain Kull, Senior Research Fellow Approved for defence: Supervisor: Head of Department: Tartu 2020 Abstract (Annotation) The aim of the thesis is to determine regulations for wind farm siting in Ukraine and to create a suitability map of the most perspective region in terms of wind conditions. These regions are Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts (counties) of Ukraine. Legislation analysis was conducted for wind energy regulations in Ukraine. Analysis of foreign legislation was done in the aspects where the correspondent Ukrainian legislation doesn’t exist yet (e.g. about bird reserves). Otherwise, standards of international researchers were used. I made analysis of works of other researchers to define factors and distances for suitability map. The most important and commonly used factors are: settlements, road network, nature protection areas, bird reserves, power lines, railways, slope degree, airports, water bodies, wind speed and land use. Data is taken from different sources (open data, international, governmental), depending on quality. Methods used in my research are GIS analysis, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP). I chose the most important factors using MCDM method and graded them according to their importance using AHP method. Unsuitable areas excluded and maps for each criteria were made. As final result, two maps were created: Equal Weights map and map with factors graded by AHP. Percentage of suitable areas were calculated and the analysis of the most influential factors after analysis was made. Key words: wind farm siting, wind farm suitability, wind energy regulations, multi-criteria decision making, analytical hierarchy process analysis. CERCS code: P510 - Physical geography, geomorphology, pedology, cartography, climatology. Abstrakt (Annotatsioon) Uurimistöö eesmärk on varasemate rahvusvaheliste uuringute eeskujul töötada välja reeglistik tuulikuparkide asukoha valikuks Ukrainas ning koostada selle alusel tuuletingimuste poolest kõige sobivamate piirkondade Zaporižžja ja Hersoni oblasti kohta sobivuskaart. Tuuleenergia kasutussobivuse määratlemiseks oli tarvis läbi viia Ukraina seadusandluse analüüs. Valdkondades, kus vastavaid Ukraina õigusakte veel ei eksisteeri (nt linnukaitsealade osas) analüüsiti ja rakendati välisriikide seadusandluse alusel loodud reeglistikku. Seadusandlusega reguleerimata juhtudel kasutati reeglistiku loomisel rahvusvahelisi teadusuuringute tulemusi. Teadusartiklite põhjal loodud andmebaasi alusel analüüsisin teiste riikide näiteid, et määrata tuuleenergia kasutamist enam mõjutavad tegurid ja vajalikud vahemaad või kaalud sobivuskaardi loomiseks. Kõige tähtsamad ja enamkasutatud tegurid on asustus, teedevõrk, looduskaitsealad (eriti linnukaitsealad), kõrgepingeelektriliinid, raudteed, nõlvakalle kraadides, lennujaamad, veekogud, tuule kiirus ja maakasutus. Sõltuvalt andmete kvaliteedist on kasutatud erinevaid allikaid (avaandmed, rahvusvahelised ja riiklikud andmekogud). Meetoditena kasutasin oma uurimistöös mitmekriteeriumilist otsustamist (MCDM) ja analüütilise hierarhia protsessi (AHP) GIS-analüüsil. Kõige tähtsamad tegurid tuvastasin MCDM-meetodi abil ning seejärel sorteerisin neid olulisuse alusel AHP-meetodiga. Tuuleenergia arendamiseks sobimatud alad jäeti välja ning iga kriteeriumi alusel koostati eraldi kaardikihid. Kihtide kombineerimisel sündisid lõpptulemusena kaks kaarti: võrdsete kaalude (Equal Weights) sobivuskaart ja sobivuskaart, mille loomisel kasutatud tegurid järjestati AHP alusel. Zaporižžja ja Hersoni oblasti kohta leiti tuuleenergia arendamiseks sobivate alade protsent, 2 täiendavalt analüüsiti piirangute põhjustajatena kõige olulisemaid tegureid ja nende osakaalu. Võtmesõnad: tuulikuparkide asukoha valik, tuulikuparkide rajamise sobivusanalüüs, planeerimisreeglistik tuuleenergia kasutuselevõtuks, mitmekriteeriumiline otsustamine, analüütilise hierarhia protsess. CERCS kood: P510 – füüsiline geograafia, geomorfoloogia, pedoloogia, kartograafia, klimatoloogia (physical geography, geomorphology, pedology, cartography, climatology) 3 Table of contents Table of contents ............................................................................................................................. 4 List of abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ 4 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 5 1. Theoretical overview ................................................................................................................ 7 1.1. Wind energy in Ukraine and factors................................................................................... 7 1.2. Overview of previous research .......................................................................................... 8 1.2.1. Similar research in Ukraine ........................................................................................ 9 1.3. Study area ....................................................................................................................... 10 1.3.1. Choice of study area ................................................................................................. 10 1.3.2. Description of study area .......................................................................................... 11 2. Results - Factors ..................................................................................................................... 13 3. Data and methods ...................................................................................................................... 25 3.1. Data .................................................................................................................................... 25 3.2. Methods .............................................................................................................................. 28 3.2.1. GIS method .................................................................................................................. 29 3.2.2. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) analysis ..................................................... 30 3.2.3. Analythic hierarchy process (AHP) .......................................................................... 30 3.2.4. Other methods .......................................................................................................... 32 4. Results – Suitability map ........................................................................................................ 33 4.1. Projection (Coordinate system) .................................................................................... 33 4.2. Buffer zones and distances ........................................................................................... 33 4.3. Exclusion areas ............................................................................................................ 33 4.4. Graded factors ............................................................................................................. 37 4.5. Final suitability maps ................................................................................................... 44 5. Discussion and conclusions .................................................................................................... 48 Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 51 Kokkuvõte ..................................................................................................................................... 53 Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... 56 References ..................................................................................................................................... 57 Annexes ........................................................................................................................................ 64 Annex 1 - Current setback distances from housing in EU countries (Dalla Longa et.al. 2018) .... 64 List of abbreviations MW – megawatt kV - kilovolt GWA – Global Wind Atlas EIA – environmental impact assessment 4 Introduction Wind energy (along with solar) is a most perspective type of renewable energy in today’s world. It has a second largest installed capacity in EU (after natural gas) and the pace of its growth is higher than of any other source of power generation in Europe (WindEurope 2018). By the end of 2018, the total of 591,549 MW of wind power were installed in the world, with growth rate of 9,6% annually. (GWEA 2019) Installing new renewable energy capacities can make power system of Ukraine more sustainable and less dependent on external supply of resources. Ukraine has a big territory and good wind conditions in many regions, but the best conditions are in the South and in the East. Development of wind power is one of the key priorities in the energy policy of Ukrainian government. Developing of renewable energy can reduce the dependence of Ukrainian