Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Systems 2 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 — Autonomous Maritime Systems Acknowledgments and Disclaimers This publication has been prepared for general Graphics and photographs are for illustrative The authors wish to acknowledge the guidance on matters of interest only, and does purposes only and any person depicted is a support from colleagues within their own not constitute professional advice. You should model, unless otherwise stated. organisations and the support of their not act upon the information contained in management to develop this report. The this publication without obtaining specific © 2017 Lloyd’s Register Group Ltd, QinetiQ views expressed in this publication are professional advice. 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EC3M 4BS WC1H 0NN Design by: Fourtwentyseven www.0427.co.uk Tel: +44 (0)20 7423 2475 Tel: +44 (0) 20 3108 5906 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] lr.org/marine ucl.ac.uk/energy @LR_Marine @ucl_energy /LloydsRegister Lloyds Register Marine lr.org/marine | University College London ucl.ac.uk/energy 2364 Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030_Cover.indd 1 20/03/2014 09:41 3 Table of Contents Foreword 5 Part 1: Maritime Autonomy 6 Part 2: Key Challenges 8 Part 3: Technology 11 6 8 3.1: Artificial Intelligence 12 3.2: Sensors and Situational Awareness 17 3.3: Connectivity 20 3.4: Cyber Security 24 3.5: Energy Management and Sustainability 28 11 32 Part 4: Regulation and Legal Challenges 32 Part 5: Smart Ships 38 Part 6: A View of the Future 44 GMTT Team 50 Glossary 51 38 44 4 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 — Autonomous Maritime Systems 5 Foreword In 2013 Lloyds Register, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University published the ‘Global Marine Trends 2030’ (GMT2030) report addressing the future of the marine and maritime sector. Using a scenario-based approach it presented three • Mechanization • Mass production • Computer • Cyber physical scenarios that offered differing perspectives on • Steam power • Assembly line • Automation systems potential futures: • Water power • Electricity • Status Quo • Global Commons • Competing Nations issues raised in our previous publications to is more likely. Given a Competing Nations The publication highlighted the potential the fore: context, what will the fourth shipping “We stand on the impact of technology on the future, a theme revolution look like? We will explore this over brink of a technological taken up in greater detail in the Global • The apparent slowing down of the following pages. revolution that will Marine Technology Trends 2030 (GMTT2030) globalisation caused in part by BREXIT funadamentally alter the Report produced by Lloyds Register, QinetiQ and the new US Administration’s agenda. With the benefit of hindsight, we now see that way we live, work and and University of Southampton in 2015. • Rapid developments in consumer in some areas our perspectives on emergent relate to one another.” GMTT2030 used Horizon Scanning technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence technologies were somewhat conservative. techniques to look at 18 technologies which (AI), personal and multimedia solutions, In this publication we are focussing on one Klaus Schwab could influence the future of the Marine and along with widespread digitalisation of such area of technology. Autonomy and Founder and Maritime Sector in three areas: businesses and economies. autonomous systems – these have accelerated Executive Chairman • The start of a new industrial revolution to an extent where it may be possible to deliver World Economic Forum • Commercial shipping (Industry 4.0) that has the potential to credible solutions within the next couple of • Naval disrupt traditional businesses, markets years, enabled by the breadth of capabilities • Ocean space sectors and economies. and adjacent technologies emerging from commercial and consumer worlds. In the relatively short period since we As a result of these global changes we published GMTT2030 a number of believe that the Competing Nations scenario, We offer our perspectives on the future of developments have brought some of the described in Global Marine Trends 2030, autonomy, its impact and the timescales. Photo: Drop of Light / Shutterstock.com 6 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 — Autonomous Maritime Systems Part 1: Maritime Autonomy Where are we now? Given the media focus on autonomous cars Yara, a Norwegian chemical company) have • Ocean science Levels of Autonomy you would be forgiven for thinking that we all revealed plans to develop all-electric and • Naval operations It is worth noting that many are more likely to see self-driving vehicles on autonomous container ships by 2020. There • Surveying and exploration definitions of Autonomous our roads before they reach the high seas. is a fierce race to be first across the finish line. Systems exist. LR has set The reality is quite the reverse. Automation, Other organisations throughout the world are Such vessels, operated in small fleets (swarms, out the ‘how’ of marine robotics and artificial intelligence are already developing complementary, even competing although there is an argument that suggest autonomous operations in transforming most sectors. Technical feasibility concepts and systems to support unmanned they should be called pods), are now routinely a new ShipRight procedure combined with compelling economic operations, coupled with infrastructure employed by the National Oceanography guidance2. The guidance advantages, such as improved efficiency, initiatives, including autonomous ports and Centre (Southampton, UK). Their MASSMO describes autonomy levels reduced operating and labour costs, is driving high bandwidth communications. (Marine Autonomous Systems in Support of (AL) ranging from ‘AL 1’ adoption especially in aviation, engineering Marine Observations) events bring together through to ‘AL 5’ denoting and construction companies, manufacturers Labour and costs are key factors driving this the largest fleet of marine robotic vehicles a fully autonomous system and healthcare providers who are all investing pace of change in maritime. A shortage simultaneously deployed in UK waters, 1 with no access required heavily. of skilled people is accelerating the move operating together to collect a range of during a mission and no to unmanned and autonomous ships. environmental data. on-board override possible. Autonomous technology is poised to reshape Navies world-wide are investigating how the maritime sector with crewless vessels; to substitute labour with autonomous The Royal Navy conducted Unmanned Warrior small craft are already developed and in technology in the face of significant budget 16. This event successfully demonstrated service with larger vessels under development. cuts. Where labour costs are low, for example the latest unmanned system technologies, It is time for the maritime industry to accept shipping containers, technology that requires including air, surface and sub-surface vehicles autonomy is coming, and to understand how substantial upfront investment will be less and sensors, from a wide range of nations autonomy will shape future industry and how attractive. Each sector will need to review and technology providers. Key applications best to exploit it. whether autonomous systems will prove to included Mine Countermeasures and GEOINT be an economical choice, though the cost- (Geospatial Intelligence). The growth in Maritime Autonomous Systems benefit ratio will shift as technology becomes over the period since the publication of cheaper and more widely used. On the regulatory front, the UK Maritime GMTT2030 has exceeded our expectations. Autonomous Systems Regulatory Working Major