C O R P O R A T I O N Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements Bryan Frederick, Matthew Povlock, Stephen Watts, Miranda Priebe, Edward Geist For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1879 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9863-4 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The escalation in tensions between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since 2014 has led to numerous proposals to enhance U.S. and NATO posture on the Alliance’s eastern flank. Despite its overall military advantages, NATO faces a clear imbal- ance in conventional capabilities in regions bordering Russia, such as the Baltics. To address this local imbalance, analysts and policymakers have designed proposals to increase the appar- ent costs and reduce the probability of success of any attack on a NATO member that Russia might contemplate. Whatever posture enhancements the United States and NATO decide to pursue, their goal is to produce a change in Russian behavior. Therefore, the nature of Russian responses will determine the utility and advisability of whatever actions NATO decides to take. Potential Russian reactions could run the gamut, from tacit acceptance of U.S. and NATO actions and a reduction in any willingness to consider an attack on NATO, to a sharp increase in nearby Russian forces designed to counterbalance U.S. and NATO moves, to a precipitous escalation to direct conflict. Russia could also respond to U.S. and NATO military moves by attempting to exploit nonmilitary vulnerabilities in the United States or other NATO coun- tries. Assessing the likelihood of potential Russian reactions is therefore a vital component of any analysis regarding which posture enhancements the United States and NATO should pursue. This report develops a framework that analysts can use for this purpose. The research reported here was commissioned by Brig Gen Mark D. Camerer, United States Air Forces in Europe, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of the fiscal year 2016 project U.S. Air Power and Mos- cow’s Emerging Strategy in the Russian Near Abroad. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF pro- vides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on September 29, 2016. The draft report, issued on September 30, 2016, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Tables .............................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments .............................................................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Building a Framework for Assessing Russian Reactions ..................................................... 2 Organization of This Report .................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER TWO Current, Planned, and Proposed Postures in Europe .................................................... 5 NATO Posture in Europe and Overall Capabilities ......................................................... 5 U.S. Posture in Europe and Overall Capabilities ...........................................................10 Russian Posture and Overall Capabilities ...................................................................12 Planned Posture Initiatives .....................................................................................15 Posture Enhancement Proposals ..............................................................................19 CHAPTER THREE Factors Affecting Russian Decisionmaking ..............................................................25 Strategic Context ............................................................................................... 26 Russian Domestic Context .....................................................................................33 Characteristics of Posture Enhancements ...................................................................41 Summary of Factors ........................................................................................... 50 CHAPTER FOUR Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements ...........................53 Assessing Potential Russian Reactions to In-Progress NATO Posture Enhancements .................53 Assessing Potential Russian Reactions to Future NATO Posture Enhancements .......................59 CHAPTER FIVE Conclusion ......................................................................................................73 Key Observations Regarding Russian Decisionmaking ....................................................73 Policy Implications ..............................................................................................74 v vi Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements APPENDIXES A. Russian Decisionmaking in Key Cases ............................................................... 77 B. Key NATO and Russian Interactions, 1995–2015 .................................................. 99 References ..................................................................................................... 109 Figures and Tables Figures 2.1. NATO Members, by Region ...................................................................... 7 2.2. Russian Military Districts ........................................................................13 A.1. Map of Georgia ....................................................................................89 Tables S.1. Key Factors Likely to Affect Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements ....................................................................................... x 2.1. NATO-Member Ground Forces, by Location and Type, 2015 ............................... 9 2.2. NATO-Member Air Forces, by Location and Type, 2015 ....................................10 2.3. NATO-Member Naval Forces, by Location and Type, 2015 .................................10 2.4. U.S. Forces in Europe, 2015 ......................................................................12 2.5. Russian Forces, by Military District and Type, 2015 ..........................................14 2.6. NATO and Russian Force Comparison, 2015 .................................................15 2.7. Summary of Planned NATO Posture Initiatives ..............................................16 2.8. Posture Enhancement Proposals .................................................................19 3.1. Key Factors Likely to Affect Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements ......................................................................................51 4.1. Status of the Key Factors Likely to Affect Russian Reactions to Near-Term NATO Posture Enhancements ...................................................................58 4.2. Key Strategic and Russian Domestic Factors, Baseline Scenario............................ 64 4.3. Key Strategic and Russian Domestic Factors, Russia Lashes Out Scenario ............... 66 4.4. Key Strategic and Russian Domestic Factors, Weakened West Scenario ...................67 4.5. Proposed NATO Posture Enhancements and the Key Characteristics