House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee Iran’s nuclear programme Oral and written evidence Tuesday 5 February 2013 Professor Ali Ansari, Director, Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews and Dr Trita Parsi, President, National Iranian American Council; Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, International Institute for Strategic Studies, and Shashank Joshi, Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 5 February 2013 HC 952-i Published on 26 June 2013 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £7.50 The Foreign Affairs Committee The Foreign Affairs Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and its associated agencies. Current membership Richard Ottaway (Conservative, Croydon South) (Chair) Mr John Baron (Conservative, Basildon and Billericay) Rt Hon Sir Menzies Campbell (Liberal Democrat, North East Fife) Rt Hon Ann Clwyd (Labour, Cynon Valley) Mike Gapes (Labour/Co-op, Ilford South) Mark Hendrick (Labour/Co-op, Preston) Sandra Osborne (Labour, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock) Andrew Rosindell (Conservative, Romford) Mr Frank Roy (Labour, Motherwell and Wishaw) Rt Hon Sir John Stanley (Conservative, Tonbridge and Malling) Rory Stewart (Conservative, Penrith and The Border) The following Members were also members of the Committee during the Parliament: Rt Hon Bob Ainsworth (Labour, Coventry North East) Emma Reynolds (Labour, Wolverhampton North East) Mr Dave Watts (Labour, St Helens North) Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No 152. These are available on the internet via www.parliament.uk. Publication The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. All publications of the Committee (including news items) are on the internet at www.parliament.uk/facom. A list of Reports of the Committee in the present Parliament is at the front of this volume. Committee staff The current staff of the Committee are Kenneth Fox (Clerk), Peter McGrath (Second Clerk), Zoe Oliver-Watts (Senior Committee Specialist), Dr Brigid Fowler (Committee Specialist), Louise Glen (Senior Committee Assistant), Vanessa Hallinan (Committee Assistant), and Alex Paterson (Media Officer). Contacts All correspondence should be addressed to the Clerk of the Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Commons, London SW1A 0AA. The telephone number for general enquiries is 020 7219 6105; the Committee’s email address is [email protected]. List of witnesses Tuesday 5 February 2013 Page Professor Ali Ansari, Director, Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews, and Dr Trita Parsi, President, National Iranian American Council Ev 1 Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, International Institute for Strategic Studies, and Shashank Joshi, Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute Ev 14 List of written evidence 1 Written evidence from Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, International Institute for Strategic Studies Ev 24 cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [SO] Processed: [25-06-2013 17:10] Job: 030521 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/030521/030521_o001_Iran 1 corrected 05.02.13_Corrected.xml Foreign Affairs Committee: Evidence Ev 1 Oral evidence Taken before the Foreign Affairs Committee on Tuesday 5 February 2013 Members present: Richard Ottaway (Chair) Mr Bob Ainsworth Andrew Rosindell Mr John Baron Mr Frank Roy Sir Menzies Campbell Sir John Stanley Mike Gapes Rory Stewart Mark Hendrick ________________ Examination of Witnesses Witnesses: Professor Ali Ansari, Director, Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews, and Dr Trita Parsi, President, National Iranian American Council, gave evidence. Q1 Chair: May I welcome members of the public to to turn the trajectory of the relationship around, away this session of the Foreign Affairs Committee? It is a from the gravitation towards confrontation that now one-off, topical evidence session on the foreign policy seems to be taking place. consequences of Iran’s nuclear programme. The session is split into two groups. The first is focused Q2 Chair: Do you think it is too late? very much on what is going on inside Iran at the Dr Parsi: I don’t believe it is too late. In fact, I don’t moment, and the second is more about the believe that diplomacy is anywhere near being negotiations and consequences of the programme. exhausted. Attempts have been made in good faith, Our first two witnesses are Professor Ali Ansari, who but this is not too different from other conflicts that is no stranger to Parliament. He is director of the have taken several years of negotiation to find full Institute of Iranian Studies at the university of St resolution. Obviously, I understand that such patience Andrews. Professor Ansari, welcome. It gives me or time may not exist, but I believe that in the shorter particular pleasure to welcome Dr Trita Parsi, term diplomacy can bring the two sides away from president of the National Iranian American Council the brink of military confrontation, and that in and of who has come over from the United State especially itself is worth pursuing. for this session. Dr Parsi, we are particularly appreciative; thank you very much for making the Q3 Chair: Do you think there is a deal that can be effort to come. done? May I start with a general question? What do you Dr Parsi: I certainly do. think it would take for the west to reset the relationship with Iran at the moment in the current regime? Is it possible, particularly if we are going to Q4 Chair: What would it look like? try to restore good faith in what is becoming an Dr Parsi: If we focus specifically on the nuclear issue, increasingly difficult situation? there is gravitation towards an understanding that at Professor Ansari: I would say that with the current the end of the day the contours of the deal will entail stellar cast in Iran it would probably be quite difficult the Iranians having to accept that they must have a to reset the relationship. Many people in Iran are programme that is much more inspected than probably waiting for the presidential election that is currently. That means additional protocol and other supposed to take place in June to see whether a new verification systems that will provide the international team comes into place. My suspicion is that the community with some form of, not a guarantee—that problem lies with the opinions of the Supreme Leader, may be too strong a word—but the best possible and his opinions are fairly cemented in one direction. firewall to prevent the Iranians from being able to Some of the things they have required, certainly from transform an enrichment programme into a weapons the Americans—it might be even tougher with the programme. British—are quite extraordinary. I don’t think the On the other hand, from the western side there must Americans can achieve some of the things they want be acceptance that at the end of the day, enrichment in terms of resetting the relationship. In terms of below 5% is impossible to do away with at this point. having a better relationship, there are means and ways The nuclear-specific sanctions will have to be looked of approaching that, but it will be a slow process. at to see what can be done to get rid of them to obtain Dr Parsi: I tend to agree. This is not going to be an some compromises from the Iranian side. The easy negotiation or a process that will be quick in any structure of that is more or less set. The real task is to shape or form. I certainly believe that it is possible, find a path towards achieving that objective, and but it will require a tremendous amount of patience finding the political will on both sides to be able to and persistence from both sides, and so far neither weather all the storms that will besiege the two parties side has shown the sort of persistence that is needed on the path towards that solution. cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [E] Processed: [25-06-2013 17:10] Job: 030521 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/030521/030521_o001_Iran 1 corrected 05.02.13_Corrected.xml Ev 2 Foreign Affairs Committee: Evidence 5 February 2013 Professor Ali Ansari and Dr Trita Parsi Q5 Chair: Do you agree with that, Professor Ansari? respond to overwhelming pressure—a line of thought Professor Ansari: In broad terms, but my view is that that is very common in Washington but in the opposite until there are some serious changes in the political way, saying essentially that Iran will only respond to landscape in Iran, it will be very difficult to achieve a tremendous amount of pressure. anything meaningful, certainly in the medium term. From their end, which is the more hard-line end, looking at the regional developments I think their Q6 Chair: You are quite a good watcher of what goes view is that if they don’t believe that Iran can make a on there. Do you think that saving face by the regime deal in this more compromised position, they are is important? Do they have to be seen to be going to be waiting or playing for time, in order to be achieving something? able to get some kind of a game-changer on their side. Professor Ansari: Yes. My view is that there is a deal And their regional dimensions are going to be very to be done. I don’t think at the moment the sort of important for them in order to be able to regain the pressures they are under have really squeezed them momentum, particularly Syria, and some of those enough to make them contemplate the sort of deal developments are likely—the cards that they are they need to contemplate.