Issue 2—Year 2016 When Everything is Media When Everything 2016 Issue 2—Year Want to be a futurist IFTF Foresight Studio Trainings will upskill your foresight and prepare you , your team, and your organization for the future. INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE INSTITUTE FOR When Everything is Media REGISTER TODAY Issue 2—Year 2016 [email protected] 650-233-9562 | iftf.org “... a book of provocations toward a future of possibilities ...” ROD FALCON IFTF Archives IFTF’s co-founder Paul Baran (1926–2011) brought one of the first projects to IFTF in 1971. It was based on a grant from the Defense Department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency to build a prototype of what would eventually become the Internet. Baran’s report included a list of potential home information services which forecasted online shopping, news, banking, entertainment, and more. A message from our Director Welcome to 2017 Welcome to 2018 Welcome to 2020 Welcome to 2022 Welcome to 2024 Welcome to 2025 Welcome to 2026 When people first learn about Institute for the technologies to fulfill their long-standing needs, Future, they generally have a lot of questions. desires, and intentions. Next, we traveled to New The first is mostly, “What do you do?” (We’re a York City and met with another set of experts, in- non-profit think tank dedicated to helping peo- cluding professionals in media and advertising, ple think through future possibilities so they can artists and students, and civic technology inno- make better decisions today). The second is usual- vators and activists, to synthesize different pos- ly something along the lines of, “Do you predict sibilities into coherent stories about the future of the future?” (No, we don’t. We create plausible communication. internally consistent forecasts of what the world It was through these conversations that we could be like 10 years from now.) The third ques- were able to uncover the emerging world of am- tion is often, “How large is IFTF?” It seems like the bient communications, and began to identify the answer ought to be straightforward, but it’s not. many new layers of complexity that will require While our staff roster floats around the relatively us to rethink what’s possible and reinvent what’s small number of 40 or so people, in truth, IFTF is practical in this rapidly approaching future. much bigger. To get robust perspectives on the fu- The publication you’re holding reflects the con- ture, we work with a globally distributed network versations and insights we’ve had over this past of technologists, designers, journalists, activists, year about the future of technology and commu- academics, science fiction writers, policy makers, nications. Think of Future Now as a book of prov- and entrepreneurs in business and civic society. ocations; it reflects the curiosity and diversity of We consider this growing network of thinkers and futures thinking across IFTF and its network of doers an important part of our organization, and collaborators. It contains expert interviews, pro- this publication, Future Now, is a reflection of that. files and analyses of what today’s technologies tell In this second volume of Future Now, we ex- us about the next decade, as well as comics and sci- plore the future of communications. In our re- ence fiction stories that help us imagine what 2026 search process, we traced historical technology (and beyond) might look and feel like. You may find shifts through the present and focused on the some of these provocations challenging, scary, or question, “what is beyond social media?”. Our even ridiculous. The point is not to persuade you journey started with an expert workshop in Sili- to agree with any particular forecast or point of con Valley, where we engaged some of the area’s view, but to provoke you to engage in more con- most creative and insightful thinkers to help us versations about the future, and to consider new identify a set of foundational technologies shap- possibilities. ing the next decade of communications. We then Welcome to the future, now. went to Copenhagen, where we convened a broad set of experts, speculative designers, and future Rod Falcon thinkers to map out how people would use these Tech Horizons Program Director Contents 5 Why We Communicate Intentions in a world of ambient communications Rod Falcon, Bradley Kreit, Ben Hamamoto, Jason Tester, Mark Frauenfelder Fu Co Pr Fun Collaboration Productivity 20 46 62 Rock or Block Complexity Made Simple The Centaur Revolution The definitive parents’ guide to What we can learn from insect Your future will depend on how well the hot new toys of 2026 coordination you work with AIs Dylan Hendricks Kathi Vian Kevin Kelly 24 50 65 Power Up and Evolve: Citizen Sensing Machines as the It’s Not Just for Pokémon After Fukushima, no city-wide New Consumer The surprising ways augmented radiation data existed—until Scenarios of encoded values reality games affect our brains thousands of volunteers collaborated and bodies to build the world’s biggest global Bradley Kreit and radiation database Jamais Cascio Jane McGonigal Carla Sinclair 72 28 54 Back to the Future eSports Gets a “New So You Want to be a Thing From time-based to task-based work Mindset” for 2026 on the Internet Marina Gorbis The Shock demolish Electroforce, but Here’s 5 ways to fit in does the use of new tech go against the spirit of the league? Claire Rowland 75 Alex Goldman Better Than Being There 55 Beyond the “uncanny valley” Making Miku of leadership Bob Johansen Ps The pop star of the future will be crowdsourced Persuasion Ben Hamamoto 34 58 The Politics of Persuasion From Domestication to Scenarios from the future Amplification Jamais Cascio How networked animals are becoming our new collaborators 42 Bradley Kreit and No Exit Alex Goldman When everything is a shopping mall Douglas Rushkoff Cn En In Control Engagement Intimacy 80 92 114 Black Twitter and the Future The Livestream Economy Feeling is Believing of Digital Disobedience For millions of Chinese, a digital An interview with David Birnbaum yacht is as good as yuan What happens when the Internet of Scott Minneman Things “gets woke”? Lyn Jeffery David E. Thigpen 117 96 Daddy Cam 83 Rewriting the Rules of An experiment in compassionate Take to the Cyber Streets Engagement surveillance Fighting the war on organizing with The future of VR storytelling Peter Coughlin immersive remote participation David Pescovitz Sam Gregory 118 98 Algorithms for Intimacy 86 My BFF is a Bot An interview with Brian Christian Keep Out Lydia would just die without her Bradley Kreit An interview with danah boyd personal autonomous data Rod Falcon intelligence service Chris Kalaboukis 120 N2U 88 Divine the secrets to the ultimate The Underworld Wide Web mystery: Do they like you? Good things you can learn Ep Madeline Ashby from bad people Empathy Andrew Trabulsi 122 102 The Evolution of the Empathy Bugs Quantified Self Empathy is infectious. But what A conversation with Gary Wolf happens when it’s an infection? Bradley Kreit Rudy Rucker 108 Empathy on Demand An interview with Maria Konnikova Mark Frauenfelder 125 110 The Coming Era of The Listening City Autonomous Vehicles Amidst the din, noise, and clamor of the city, people are still being heard. Stories from the future Here are their stories David Pescovitz, Devin Fidler, Anthony Weeks Jean Hagan, Dylan Hendricks Contributors Technology Horizons Madeline Ashby is a science-fiction writer and futurist living in Program Director Toronto. She has a Masters of Design in Strategic Foresight and Rod Falcon Innovation from OCADU, and has worked with IFTF, SciFutures, Senior Editor Intel Labs, Nesta, Data & Society, and others. Her latest novel, Mark Frauenfelder “Company Town” is available from Tor Books. Research Director Bradley Kreit Sam Gregory is a human-rights activist and founder of Witness, Managing Editor whose mission is to enable anyone to be an active witness for human Ben Hamamoto rights using contemporary technologies. Technology Horizons Team and IFTF Contributors Kevin Kelly is Senior Maverick at Wired magazine. He co-founded Miriam Lueck Avery, Jamais Wired in 1993, and served as its Executive Editor for its first seven Cascio, Peter Coughlin, Devin years. Fidler, Alex Goldman, Eri Gentry, Marina Gorbis, Dylan Hendricks, Claire Rowland Toshi Hoo, Bob Johansen, Lyn is a London-based independent product/UX strategy Jeffery, Chris Kalaboukis, Mike consultant specialising in connected products/IoT. She is the lead Liebhold, Jane McGonigal, Scott author of “Designing Connected Products: UX for the Consumer Minneman, David Pescovitz, Internet of Things,” published by O’Reilly. Jason Tester, David Thigpen, Andrew Trabulsi, Kathi Vian, Anthony Weeks Rudy Rucker is a writer, a mathematician, and a painter. For 20 years he was a professor of computer science at San Jose State in Silicon Contributing Editors Valley. He received Philip K. Dick awards for his cyberpunk novels Cindy Baskin, Gareth Branwyn, Andrew Keller, Carla Sinclair, “Software” and “Wetware,” and an Emperor Norton award for his Sara Skvirsky autobiography “Nested Scrolls”. Recent novels include “Turing & Burroughs” and “The Big Aha”. Copy Editor Nicola Morrison Doug Rushkoff is a writer, documentarian, and lecturer whose work Executive Producer focuses on human autonomy in a digital age. Jean Hagan Program Manager Carla Sinclair is an author, the co-founder of Boing Boing, and editor Meagan Jensen of Wink Books. Design Albertson Design Experts consulted Algo Character Design David Birnbaum, danah boyd, Ming-Li