WHAT’S LOOMING OVER YOUR HEAD? NATIONAL AND COLORADO POLITICS AND POLICIES IN 2015 Wednesday, March 4, 2015 WHAT’S LOOMING OVER YOUR HEAD? NATIONAL AND COLORADO POLITICS AND POLICIES IN 2015 Wednesday, March 4, 2015 WELCOME Kirk Monroe EVP, Director of Wholesale Banking Vectra Bank Colorado SPEAKER INTRODUCTION Michael Lewis Managing Partner RubinBrown Floyd Ciruli is a pollster and political analyst providing consulting, strategy, policy management, public opinion research, public relations and management. Clients include major Colorado corporations, business and civic associations. Among Denver–based Ciruli Associates’ specialties is consulting for government, nonprofit and corporate organizations proposing initiatives for public approval. The New Political Environment Opportunity and Risk Floyd Ciruli March 2015 Ciruli Associates 1115 Grant St., Ste G‐6 Denver, CO 80203 PH (303) 399‐3173 FAX (303) 399‐3147 www.ciruli.com The New Colorado Election System 2014 election – The new Colorado election system Nationalization of election . All Obama, all the time . Harry vs. Mitch show Proliferation of forecasts . Who’s in and out . Who’s up and down Money is overwhelming . Mostly “independent,” out-of-state . TV is still king, advertisements at saturation Power of media . Endorsements . Debates, truth tests . Ideological web platforms 7 Ciruli Associates 2015 U.S. Generations Years Ages High School Formative Born Today Years Experiences Greatest 1900-1924 90-114 1915-1938 WWI, Roaring Twenties, Crash, Generation Depression Silent Generation 1925-1945 69-89 1939-1959 End of WWII, Cold War, Post-war boom, civil rights Baby Boomers 1946-1964 50-68 1960-1978 Cold War, urban riots, Kennedy, space, King, Vietnam, protest, Woodstock, Haight-Ashbury, Nixon, Silent Majority Generation X 1965-1982 32-49 1979-1996 Feminism, MTV, Chernobyl, Reagan, AIDS, end of Soviet empire, Rodney King, globalization, Clinton Millennials/ 1983-2000 14-31 1997-2016 Internet, Columbine, Y2K, smartphone, Generation Y Bush, Twin Towers, Katrina, War on Terror, Iraq, Great Recession, Obama, social media, reality TV, gay rights, legal pot Generation Z 2001- 1-13 2015- Ciruli Associates 2014 8 Ciruli Associates 2015 Millennials Size of Generations Numbers in Short Generation Ages 2015 2050 Millennial 18-34 75 million 79 million Generation X 35-50 66 million 50 million Baby Boomer 51-69 75 million 17 million Silent 70-87 29 million -- Greatest 88 and older ? -- Source: Pew Research 2015 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2015 Ideology of Generations Liberal Moderate Conservative Gap Millennial (18-34) 30% 40% 28% -2 Generation X (35-50) 23 39 35 +12 Baby Boomers (51-69) 21 33 44 +23 Silent/Greatest (over 69) 17 33 48 +31 Overall 24 36 38 +14 Source: Pew Research 2015 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2015 9 Ciruli Associates 2015 Changes in Colorado Voters’ Social Viewpoints Legalize Recreational Marijuana and Approve Civil Unions Colorado 2006 and 2012 Yes 2006 Legalize 41% 14 percentage No 2006 59% point shift from 2006 to 2012 Yes 2012 Legalize 55% No 2012 45% 1992 Yes 2006 Civil unions 47% Amendment 43: No 2006 Civil unions 53% yes 56%; prohibited Yes 2013 Poll 71% No 2013 Poll minority status 22% for gays Sources: Colorado Secretary of the State, 2006, 2013; Quinnipiac 2013 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 10 Ciruli Associates 2015 One Country – Two Governments White House and Congress Different elections • 2008, 2012 vs. 2010, 2014 • Democrats vs. Republicans Different constituencies • Young vs. old President • College educated vs. attended Senate Majority Leader Barack Obama • Color vs. White Mitch McConnell Different powers • Executive vs. Finance • Pulpit vs. courts Different agendas • Immigration • Foreign policy o Iran, Ukraine, ISIS Vice President • Spending vs. debt House Speaker Joe Biden • Equality vs. growth John Boehner 11 Ciruli Associates 2015 2014: Wave or No Wave Nationalization or All Elections are Local or Both President Obama’s Approval Ratings Metrics 2012-2015 60% 50% 54% 52% 56% 51% 49% 50% 49% 50% • Obama spread – (4%) 50% • Congressional approval – 19% 48% 48% 40% 47% 43% 47% 46% • Generic ballot test – Reps 2% 42% 40% 44% • Direction, right – 33% 30% • House 234, need 17/lost 13 (30) • Senate 45, need 6/won 9 (5) Approval Disapproval 188 Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14/15 44 (2) 247 (+13) 54 (+9) Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2015 House Minority Leader Senate Majority Leader Speaker Senator Nancy Pelosi Harry Reid John Boehner Mitch McConnell 12 Ciruli Associates 2015 Bennet is on Deck Democrats Need 5 Seats to Win Back Senate in 2016 There are several factors that point to his initial advantages going into the election: • Voter turnout will be up to presidential levels. The 2 million this year will balloon to 2.8 or 3.0 million. Many of the less frequent voters lean Democratic. • Bennet works his Washington and Senate networks for maximum advantage. He’s substantially less publicity shy than Mark Udall. It’s assumed he’ll be ready with a powerful resume and a substantial war chest. Denver Post likes him. • The Republican bench in Colorado is thin if current officeholders are the main prospective candidates. Congressman Coffman and State Treasurer Stapleton may not be interested. But there are several factors that point to a tough race for Bennet: • The Democratic nominee for president and Democratic senators up for re-election will likely be running with a very unpopular president. Historically, passing on the presidency to the same party after an unpopular president is difficult. 13 Ciruli Associates 2015 Hillary – Inevitable? Hillary Clinton was called inevitable in 2008. She lost to Barack Obama. Is she inevitable today? Hillary Clinton Bill Clinton 2007-2008 2015-2016 • 40% ahead • 60% ahead • Behind in Iowa polls • Ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire • Obama and Edwards doing well in • Biden, no traction (VP), Warren, invisible primary modest support – not running • Obama already declared • No one declared, no other money • She voted for war • No obvious issues with base of • Black voters for Obama opposition (deep liberals) • Got 48% even with handicaps • Women leadership 14 Ciruli Associates 2015 Control of U.S. Senate 2014 Forecasts Mostly Right; Miss Size of Republican Tide Montana November 4 and Results New Hampshire R-18 (18) South Dakota Iowa D-1 (4) R-11 (20) R-2 (8) Kentucky R-7 (15) West Virginia R-16 (28) North Carolina D-1 (R-2) Colorado Georgia R-2 (2) R-3 (8) Win the Senate Kansas Arkansas I-1 (R-11) 538 – 75% R Alaska R-7 (16) Huffington Post – 77% R R-2 (4) Louisiana New York Times – 70% R R-5 (13) R win 7, maybe 9 15 Ciruli Associates 2015 Forecasts and Results on Udall vs. Gardner Calling the Race, Election Night Narrative, Final Results Udall Will Lose November 4, 2014 Forecast % New York Times 80 R FiveThirtyEight 81 R Huffington Post 66 R “The forecasters, such as Washington Post 97 R FiveThirtyEight, New York Times, Washington Post and Year Candidate Vote % Difference Huffington Post, are 2008 Udall D 1,230,994 53 240,239 predicting Cory Gardner the Schaffer R 990,755 42 Senate winner with higher and higher percentages.” 2014 Udall D 944,201 46 39,888 The Buzz, 10-30-14 Gardner R 983,889 48 16 Ciruli Associates 2015 New Model: Udall Loses With Swing Counties Hickenlooper Udall Adams Wins by 7,000 Wins by 4,000 Arapahoe Wins by 18,000 Wins by 3,000 Jefferson Wins by 15,000 Wins by 900 Larimer Wins by 7,000 Loses by 600 Gov. John Former Hickenlooper Pueblo Wins by 3,000 Wins by 300 Sen. Mark Udall Ciruli Associates 2014 17 Ciruli Associates 2015 1972, 1992, 2002, 2014 Colorado Politics in the ‘70s 1972 Olympic bid defeated 61% 1972 Wayne Aspinall, Mr. Chairman, defeated 1972 Pat Schroeder goes to Congress 1974 Nixon resigns (August) 1974 Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brown elected 1974 Democrats take State House, lose it in 1976 Colorado Politics in the 2000s All Republican All Democrat Divided Offices 2002 2008 2014 Results Governor Owens R Ritter D Hickenlooper D U.S. Senate Campbell R Salazar D Bennet D U.S. Senate Allard R Udall D Gardner R Congress 5R, 2D 2R, 5D 4R, 3D Colorado House 37R, 28D 27R, 37D 3 seats D Colorado Senate 18R, 17D 14R, 21D 1 seat R President Bush 8% (2000) Obama 9% Obama 5% Bush 5% (2004) 18 Ciruli Associates 2015 Denver Mayor Unopposed? Denver Mayors 1968 - 2014 Bill McNichols 1968-1983 (4 terms) Federico Peña 1983-1991 (2 terms) Wellington Webb 1991-2003 (3 terms) John Hickenlooper 2003-2011 (2 terms) Former Mayor Mayor Michael Bill McNichols Michael Hancock 2011-2015 (1 term) Hancock Ciruli Associates 2014 Note: McNichols served 3 years remaining on Tom Currigan’s second term. John Hickenlooper resigned to run for governor of Colorado near the end of his second term. He was replaced for 7 months by Bill Vidal (Jan. 12 to Jul. 18, 2011). Floyd Ciruli “There is generally a good feeling about the city right now,” he said. “And Hancock nicely represents a fulcrum point in the politics of the city. He is not too left or not too right.” “Ultimately, the final thing is leadership,” Ciruli said. “Is there someone with the name ID and money and grassroots support — not just a gadfly or marginal candidate? I don't see that person.” (Denver Post, 2-1-15) 19 Ciruli Associates 2015 Denver Metro Population Triples in 50 Years Denver Drops From Half to a Fifth of Population Denver Metro Population 1960 - 2010 Denver Metro Denver % of Year Population % Change Population % Change Metro Population 1960 493,887 - 934,199 - 52% 1970 514,678 4 1,235,936 32 42 1980 492,365 -4 1,618,461 31 30 1990