"Within the secret garden of politics" Candidate selection and the representation of immigrant-origin citizens in Germany Von der Fakultät Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften der Universität Stuttgart zur Erlangung der Würde einer Doktorin der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.) genehmigte Abhandlung Vorgelegt von Elisa Deiss-Helbig aus Stuttgart Hauptberichter: Prof. Dr. Oscar W. Gabriel Mitberichter: Prof. Dr. Patrick Bernhagen Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 16. November 2018 Institut für Sozialwissenschaften der Universität Stuttgart 2019 Contents List of Tables v List of Figures vii List of abbreviations and acronyms ix Abstract xi Zusammenfassung xiii Introduction 1 Why political representation of immigrant-origin citizens? . 1 Why candidate selection? . 3 Structure of the book . 7 1 The political representation of minorities 9 1.1 Political representation – what does it mean? . 9 1.2 (Ethnic) minority representation: theoretical concepts and empiri- cal findings . 14 1.2.1 Minority representation: theoretical concepts and its critique 15 1.2.2 The puzzling relationship between descriptive and substan- tive representation . 19 1.2.3 The psychological effects of minority representation . 22 1.2.4 Demand and supply-side explanations of ethnic minority representation . 25 1.3 Minority representation: preliminary conclusions . 29 2 Political parties and ethnic minorities 31 2.1 Parties as diverse actors: functions, types and behavior . 32 2.1.1 Defining political parties . 32 2.1.2 Party types and party behavior . 36 2.2 Candidate selection: "the secret garden of politics"? . 43 2.2.1 Conceptualizing candidate selection . 45 2.2.2 Analyzing the demand-side of candidate selection: party selectors and selection criteria . 51 2.2.3 Different selection methods – different political consequences? 55 2.3 Parties and (immigrant-origin) minorities: theoretical foundations and empirical findings . 62 i CONTENTS 2.3.1 Ethnic minorities: a different kind of electorate? . 63 2.3.2 Incorporation of (immigrant-origin) minorities in political parties . 68 2.4 Political parties and immigrant-origin minorities: concluding remarks 74 3 The immigrant origin-population and parties in Germany 75 3.1 Germany as a country of immigration . 75 3.1.1 The German conception of nationhood and citizenship . 76 3.1.2 Characteristics of the immigrant-origin population . 78 3.1.3 The political inclusion of the immigrant-origin population in Germany . 85 3.2 Political parties in Germany . 89 3.2.1 Legal and institutional framework and parties’ societal ties 89 3.2.2 The intra-party level: candidate selection as a process con- straint by the legal and institutional context . 93 3.2.3 Ideological and structural characteristics of the party system 96 3.3 German parties and the immigration issue . 100 3.4 The immigrant-origin population and parties in Germany: conclud- ing remarks . 105 4 Explaining the selection of immigrant-origin candidates: a frame- work of analysis 107 4.1 Candidate nomination as vote-seeking strategy . 109 4.2 Party ideology matters . 113 4.3 Institutions matter: the logics of intra-party politics . 115 5 Data and methods 119 5.1 Case selection . 120 5.2 Outlining the data . 121 5.2.1 Aspirant data . 121 5.2.2 Selector survey data . 127 5.3 Operationalization . 131 5.3.1 Dependent variables . 131 5.3.2 Independent variables . 133 5.4 Limitations . 136 6 Exploring the selection of immigrant-origin candidates in Ger- many 139 6.1 Mapping immigrant-origin aspiring candidates for the 2013 German legislative elections . 140 6.1.1 From aspiring candidates... 140 6.1.2 ... to nominated candidates . 148 6.2 Explaining the selection of immigrant-origin candidates . 156 6.2.1 Candidate nomination as an electoral strategy? . 157 6.2.1.1 Type of candidature and constituency characteristics157 6.2.1.2 Party selectors’ electoral concerns . 163 6.2.2 The role of party ideology . 171 6.2.3 The importance of intra-party politics . 182 ii CONTENTS 6.2.3.1 Inclusiveness of the selectorate . 183 6.2.3.2 Incumbency and the importance of district candi- datures . 192 6.2.3.3 Immigrant-specific intra-party mechanisms . 202 Conclusions 209 Strategy, ideology or intra-party politics? Rather all three of them . 209 Outlook: Candidate selection strategies in an increasingly diversified but also increasingly immigrant-hostile environment . 217 References 221 Appendix 251 A: Selector survey questionnaire . 251 B: Survey population (Selector Survey) . 264 C: Additional tables and graphs . 267 iii List of Tables 3.1 National origin of the immigrant-origin population in Germany - 2006, 2009, 2012 . 80 3.2 Immigrant population in Germany - total and eligible population (2012-2013) . 82 3.3 Share of immigrant-origin MPs in the German Bundestag compared to their share in the eligible population – 2005 & 2009 . 87 5.1 Missing data: Electoral districts . 125 5.2 Missing data: Party lists . 126 5.3 Selector Survey: number of respondents by party affiliation and type of nomination . 129 5.4 Safe, winnable and non-winnable districts - legislative elections 2013132 6.1 Successful list vs. district candidatures (immigrant-origin & visible minority aspirants . 161 6.2 Anticipated vote gains and losses of immigrant-origin district can- didates . 165 6.3 Nomination chances and composition of district population by party (Welch’s t-test) . 181 6.4 Nomination in winnable districts and composition of district popu- lation by party (Welch’s t-test) . 181 6.5 Type of district selectorate: All district nominations . 184 6.6 Type of district selectorate and immigrant-origin aspirants . 185 6.7 Type of district selectorate and visible minority aspirants . 186 6.8 Nomination chances, type of selectorate and party (binomial regres- sion) . 187 6.9 Incumbency – aspirant and candidate level . 194 6.10 SPD: Immigrant quota and nomination chances of visible minority aspirants (binomial regression) . 205 B1 Respondents in district minority nominations (SPD & CDU) . 264 B2 Respondents in district minority nominations (Greens) . 264 B3 Respondents in party list minority nominations . 265 B4 Respondents selector survey: sociodemographic statistics - age . 265 B5 Respondents selector survey: sociodemographic statistics - gender 265 B6 Respondents selector survey: geographical distribution . 266 C1 Ethnic composition of immigrant-origin population - German länder 267 C2 Chances of winnable district candidature by composition of district population (binomial regression) . 267 v LIST OF TABLES C3 Chances of promising list position by composition of state popula- tion (binomial regression) . 268 C4 Anticipated vote gains and losses of district candidates with visible immigrant origins - Minority vs. non-minority nominations . 268 C5 Voting probability for visible minority aspirants (binomial regression)268 C6 Nomination chances according to left vs. right-wing party (binomial regression) . 269 C7 Chances of promising candidature according to left vs. right-wing party (binomial regression) . 269 C8 Nomination chances according to new vs. old left party (binomial regression) . 270 C9 Chances of promising candidature according to new vs. old left party (binomial regression) . 270 C10 SPD: Regional quota and nomination chances of visible minority aspirants (binomial regression) . 272 C11 Greens: Regional quota and nomination chances of visible minority aspirants (binomial regression) . 272 vi List of Figures 2.1 Parliamentary recruitment and candidate selection . 61 6.1 Share of immigrant-origin/visible minorities among aspirants (in % of all aspirants per party) . 141 6.2 Aspirants’ countries of origin . 143 6.3 Immigrant-origin/visible minority aspirants and share of immigrant- origin/visible minority population in the states (linear regression) 146 6.4 Share of immigrant-origin/visible minorities among nominated can- didates (in % of all candidates per party) . 149 6.5 Candidates’ countries of origin . 150 6.6 Nominated immigrant-origin/visible minority candidates and share of immigrant-origin/visible minority population in the states (linear regression) . 152 6.7 Nomination chances of immigrant-origin and visible minority aspirants155 6.8 Promising candidatures (in % of aspirants) . 159 6.9 Types of promising candidatures . 160 6.10 Chances of winnable district candidature by composition of district population (binomial regression) . 163 6.11 Chances of promising list position by composition of state popula- tion (binomial regression) . 164 6.12 Anticipated vote gains/losses of district candidates with visible immigrant origins . 167 6.13 Anticipated vote gains/losses and nomination of visible minority aspirants (aggregated means) . 168 6.14 Anticipated vote gains/losses and voting probability for visible minority aspirants (binomial regression) . 170 6.15 Share of persons with immigrant origins or visible minority back- ground (in percent per party and respective group) . 172 6.16 Nomination chances/promising candidatures and new left vs. old left party differences (binomial regression) . 173 6.17 Promising candidates and party differences (in % of aspirants per party) . 175 6.18 Composition promising candidatures and party differences (in % of aspirants per party) . 177 6.19 Importance party selector types - party lists . 188 6.20 Importance party selector types - district candidates . 191 6.21 Open district nominations . 197 6.22 Failed district nomination of district aspirants . 199 vii LIST OF FIGURES 6.23 Importance selection criteria district nominations . 201 6.24 Importance intra-party