Interaction of Lifecycle Properties in High Speed Rail Systems Operation by Tatsuya Doi M.E., Aeronautics and Astronautics, University of Tokyo, 2011 B.E., Aeronautics and Astronautics, University of Tokyo, 2009 Submitted to the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering Systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology June 2016 © 2016 Tatsuya Doi. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author: ____________________________________________________________________ Institute for Data, Systems, and Society May 6, 2016 Certified by: __________________________________________________________________________ Joseph M. Sussman JR East Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Thesis Supervisor Certified by: __________________________________________________________________________ Olivier L. de Weck Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems Thesis Supervisor Accepted by: _________________________________________________________________________ John N. Tsitsiklis Clarence J. Lebel Professor of Electrical Engineering IDSS Graduate Officer 1 2 Interaction of Lifecycle Properties In High Speed Rail Systems Operation by Tatsuya Doi Submitted to the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society on May 6, 2016 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering Systems ABSTRACT High-Speed Rail (HSR) has been expanding throughout the world, providing various nations with alternative solutions for the infrastructure design of intercity passenger travel. HSR is a capital-intensive infrastructure, in which multiple subsystems are closely integrated. Also, HSR operation lasts for a long period, and its performance indicators are continuously altered by incremental updates. With this background, design and monitoring of lifecycle properties, or “ilities”, is an important factor to achieve long-term successful operation. This thesis aims to analyze and evaluate dynamic behaviors of “ilities” and their interactions in HSR operation. After the literature review and the study of industrial trends about HSR “ilities”, safety, availability and profitability are chosen as key “ilities” which should be monitored in HSR operation. The Tokaido Shinkansen in Japan, and Amtrak’s service in the US Northeast Corridor (NEC) are chosen as cases to study “ilities” trends. In the Tokaido Shinkansen, three “ilities” form a positive feedback loop to make HSR operation successful. The NEC shows high profitability, but it does not perform as well in terms of safety and availability due to several systemic factors. System Dynamics (SD) is applied to visualize interactions of “ilities” and other variables of interest. Qualitative causal loop diagrams (CLD) reveal several feedback loops affecting “ilities”. In particular, the integration of train operation and infrastructure / rolling stock management results in the emergence of major feedback loops which cannot easily be captured by other methodologies. Qualitative SD models are converted into quantitative SD models, and numerical simulations are run to further understand the structure of causal loop diagrams. Estimated parameters in the Tokaido and the NEC suggest the different relationships among “ilities” and other variables. Further, sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how different policies affect “ilities” in future HSR operations. Thesis Supervisor: Joseph M. Sussman Title: JR East Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Thesis Supervisor: Olivier L. de Weck Title: Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems 3 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Two years ago, when I started my MIT life, I was totally overwhelmed by intensive classes and a tremendous amount of homework. At that time, I could not imagine at all that I could finish my journey at MIT with this master’s thesis. I thank you all who supported my life here at Cambridge. I could not finished this work without your support. First of all, I would like to express my great appreciation to my thesis advisor, Joe Sussman for your kindness, intelligence and enthusiastic support. Our weekly meeting and your consistent feedback in the last two semesters greatly shaped this thesis, and you always led me to the right direction. I would like to show my sincere thanks to another thesis advisor, Oli de Weck. Your idea about “ilities”, and our first meeting at Oli’s office were the starting point of this thesis. Thanks for letting me pursue such an exciting research topic and giving me a lot of insightful feedback. Thank you, members in R/HSR research group: Maite, Bruno, Sam, Tolu, Alex, Ryan, Rebecca, Joanna, Patton, Tommy, Matt, Taka, Scott and Rakesh. Your insightful perspectives about transportation shaped my ideas about high speed rail. Thank you, Strategic Engineering Research Group. Our diverse discussion about various topics such as space systems, network optimization, system architecture/engineering and lifecycle properties gave me a lot of novel insight how to deal with today’s engineering systems. Especially, thank you Koki, my friend from our childhood, for your introduction to this fascinating research group. In addition, I would like to appreciate my company, JR Central for giving me such a great opportunity to broaden my perspectives. Your support was indispensable for me to finish my work here. I also thank all the readers, for your interest in this thesis, and we hope that it has offered you some useful perspectives to consider long-term HSR operation from systemic standpoints. Finally, I would like to say great thanks to my family: Koichiro and Yurimi, my parents, for always supporting me to pursue my career. Fumie, my dearest wife, for your selfless love and giving me an opportunity to be a father. Reina, our precious daughter, for your birth and healthy growth. I love you all. Tatsuya Doi Cambridge, Massachusetts May 2016 5 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... 11 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... 13 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................... 17 Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 19 Motivation ......................................................................................................................................... 19 Research Objective ........................................................................................................................... 22 Thesis Outline ................................................................................................................................... 22 Chapter 2 Overview of HSR Systems ......................................................................................................... 25 Definition of HSR ............................................................................................................................. 25 HSR around the World ...................................................................................................................... 26 Characteristics of HSR ...................................................................................................................... 28 2.3.1 System Development ................................................................................................................. 28 2.3.2 System Operation ....................................................................................................................... 30 2.3.3 Comparison with Conventional Rail .......................................................................................... 33 2.3.4 Comparison with Other Transportation Modes .......................................................................... 35 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 37 Chapter 3 Lifecycle Properties - “ilities” ................................................................................................... 39 Definition .......................................................................................................................................... 40 HSR and “ilities” ............................................................................................................................... 43 3.2.1 Literature Review ....................................................................................................................... 43 3.2.2 Industrial Trends ........................................................................................................................ 47 Key “ilities” ...................................................................................................................................... 53 3.3.1 Safety ........................................................................................................................................