Monthly Network Operations Report Analysis – May 2017 NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – May 2017 Page 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 NOTICE 2 1. TOTAL TRAFFIC 3 2. ATFM DELAY AND ATTRIBUTIONS 6 3. EN-ROUTE ATFM DELAYS 7 En-Route ATFM Delay per Location 7 En-Route ATFM Delay per Delay Group 8 En-Route ATFM Delay per Flight 9 En-Route ATFM Delay Year-To-Date 10 4. AIRPORT/TMA ATFM DELAYS 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Location 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Delay Groups 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Flight 12 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay Year-To-Date 12 5. DAILY EVOLUTION 12 6. ALL AIR TRANSPORT DELAYS (SOURCE: CODA) 13 7. ATFM SLOT ADHERENCE 14 8. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS AND ISSUES 14 Planned Events 14 ACC 14 Airports 15 Disruptions 15 9. NM ADDED VALUE 16 NOTICE Traffic and Delay Comparisons All traffic and delay comparisons are between report month and equivalent month of previous year, unless otherwise stated. Graphics All graphs in chapter 3 and chapter 4 are in average minutes of ATFM delay per day, unless otherwise stated. NM Area All figures presented in this report are for the geographical area that is within Network Manager’s responsibility (NM area). For further information on the NM Area go to the Reporting Assumptions and Descriptions document available on the EUROCONTROL website at http://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/network-operations-monitoring-and-reporting. Regulation Reason Groupings The table below shows the colour coding used in the report charts. EN-ROUTE CAPACITY (ATC) AIRPORT CAPACITY (ATC) EN-ROUTE STAFFING (ATC) AIRPORT STAFFING (ATC) EN-ROUTE DISRUPTIONS (ATC) AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS (ATC) EN-ROUTE CAPACITY AIRPORT CAPACITY EN-ROUTE DISRUPTIONS AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS EN-ROUTE EVENTS AIRPORT EVENTS EN-ROUTE WEATHER AIRPORT WEATHER For further information on the regulation reason groupings, go to the Reporting Assumptions and Descriptions document available on the EUROCONTROL website at http://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/network-operations-monitoring-and-reporting. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – May 2017 Page 2 1. TOTAL TRAFFIC Monthly traffic trend Average daily traffic for last 5 Years 4,8% 5,0% 4,6% 4,5% 4,6% 34000 4,5% 32000 4,0% 3,5% 3,3% 3,3% 3,5% 3,0% 3,0% 30000 2,8% 2,9% 3,4% 3,0% 2,6% 28000 2,5% 2,2% 2,0% 1,5% 26000 1,5% 24000 1,0% 0,5% 22000 0,0% 20000 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN DEC APR JUL OCT SEP FEB JAN AUG MAY MAY NOV JUN DEC APR MAR OCT AUG MAY NOV MAR Comparison to same month last year Rolling 12 month trend 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Traffic increased by 4.6% in May 2017i. Average daily traffic in May 2017 was the highest for May in the last five years. Average daily traffic in May for last 5 Years 12 months rolling traffic trend Forecast dated 2017-02 4,0% 31000 3,4% 3,2% 3,2% 30534 3,5% 3,0% 3,0% 2,7% 2,8% 30118 3,0% 2,6% 30000 2,5% 2,3% 2,4% 29710 2,5%2,2% 2,2% 29000 2,0% 28000 1,5% 1,0% 27000 0,5% 27667 28205 28396 29249 30594 0,0% 26000 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN DEC 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 APR OCT AUG MAY MAY NOV MAR BASELINE FORECAST LOW FORECAST HIGH FORECAST The traffic increase of 4.6% for May was in line with the high This graph shows the variation in average daily traffic for the last forecast updated in February 2017. 12-month period relative to the previous 12-months. The average daily traffic from June 2016 to May 2017 was 3.4% higher than the average from June 2015 to May 2016. The trend shows a continuous growth in traffic. In May thirteen states contributed most to the growth of local trafficii in Europe by adding more than 50 daily flights to the network and together added circa 1,540 daily flights. UK was the top contributor with 274 extra daily flights owing to its flows to Spain, Canary Islands and Portugal (excl. Azores) which grew 15% (+134 flights/day). Spain and Germany came next and added respectively 235 and 215 flights per day. Thanks to its dynamic internal flow, Italy added 132 daily flights. Portugal (excl. Azores) added 107 extra daily flights thanks to its international arrivals/departures flow which grew 13%. France added 92 daily flights. The following seven states: Ukraine, Poland, Romania, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium/Luxembourg and Czech Republic added together 481 daily flights and completed the list. Turkey continued its recovery thanks to its strong flow to or from the Russian Federation (+168 flights/day). The charter segment surged to a 9.2% growth rate in May boosted by strong traffic flows between Europe and the Russian Federation which doubled compared to last year (+84 flights per day) and to a lesser extent was also helped by European flights to or from Egypt which increased by 78%. The all-cargo segment climbed to 8.1% increase in May from a 1% decrease. The business aviation segment accelerated and went from a 1.3% increase in April to a 7.4% increase in May. The low-cost and traditional scheduled segments grew by 7.1% and 2.6% respectively. The biggest extra-European partner in average daily flights on flows in both directions remained the United States (1,064 flights, up 5.5%). The second biggest partner is the Russian Federation which continued to recover in May (906 flights) corresponding to a 32% growth on May 2016 but still below the 1,100 flights per day in May 2014. Dealing with the traffic flows between Europe and North-African States: • Moroccan flows increased by 8% to 206 flights per day in May 2017, this month showing the highest number of flights ever for a month of May, • Egypt continued to recover and was up 36% to 170 flights per day on average although it was still below the 2010 levels (307 flights per day) —just before the political turmoil, • Tunisia increased by 10% to 119 flights per day but was below the 2010 levels of 222 flights per day (same reason as for Egypt). The aircraft operators that added the most flights to the network on a daily basis were Ryanair (+185 flights), easyJet (+111 flights) and Wizzair (+62 flights). NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – May 2017 Page 3 Seven of the top ten airports had positive traffic growth. Overall, the largest traffic increases in May 2017 were at Antalya, Birmingham, Bucharest/Henri Coanda, Malaga and Tel Aviv/Ben Gurion airports. The largest traffic decreases were at Istanbul/Sabiha Gökcen, Rome/Fiumicino, Istanbul/Atatürk, Milano/Linate and Paris/Orly airports. The increase of traffic in Birmingham airport is due to the opening of new routes. Malaga airport traffic variation was due to increase of flights from UK, Sweden and Germany. Tel Aviv/Ben Gurion traffic increase was due to record tourism and cheaper flights to/from Israël by Easyjet and Aeroflot. Seven of the top ten aircraft operators had more traffic compared to May 2016. The operators with the highest traffic growth were Eurowings, FlyNiki, Norwegian Air International, Jet2com and Olympic airlines. Aegean, Germanwings, Air Berlin, Norwegian Air Shuttle and Air Europa recorded the highest traffic decrease. Norwegian Air International traffic variation comes from a change in fleet size following new aircraft deliveries, as well as aircraft moving from using NAX to the IBK callsign. The traffic variation of Olympic and Aegean is due to Aegean flights operated with Olympic callsign. Airberlin has transferred its 16 European holiday destinations to FlyNiki which will operate from Dusseldorf to destinations in Spain, the Canary Islands, Portugal and the Greek islands from the start of the summer schedule. Jet2com increase of traffic is due to the opening of two new UK bases (London Stansted and Birmingham airports) to operate to several new destinations. The traffic variation of Eurowings follows the continued integration of Germanwings and some Lufthansa routes into the Eurowings operation. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – May 2017 Page 4 The Lisbon, Santa Maria, Madrid and Canarias ACCs variation is due to increase of traffic in the South/West axis. However, the highest traffic increases in May 2017 were in Yerevan, Odessa, Kiev, Chisinau, and Skopje ACCs. Traffic increase between Europe and Egypt/UAE explained the variation of Cairo ACC. Reykjavik ACC traffic variation is due to an increase usage of northern routes between US and Europe. Traffic increase in Brest ACC is due to the comparison with May 2016 during which several French industrial actions took place. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis – May 2017 Page 5 2. ATFM DELAY AND ATTRIBUTIONS Average daily ATFM delays Average daily ATFM delays EN-ROUTE AIRPORT/ TMA EN-ROUTE 30000 AIRPORT/TMA 25651 85424 83901 90000 25000 80000 21402 18681 70000 20000 52210 60000 14991 44332 42446 50000 15000 36394 33801 33085 40000 28763 23254 21890 30000 20115 10000 16973 20000 10000 5000 0 57,9% 42,1% 58,8% 41,2% 0 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN DEC APR OCT AUG MAY MAY 2016-05 2017-05 NOV MAR Total ATFM delays decreased by 17.9% in May 2017. Note En-route ATFM delays decreased by 16.6% and airport ATFM that May 2016 experienced high delay due to French delays decreased by 19.8%. industrial action. Monthly ATFM delays trend Proportion of ATFM delays in May 2017 90% AIRPORT STAFFING (ATC) 110 64,9% ENROUTE DISRUPTIONS 270 70% ENROUTE CAPACITY 453 50% AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS 547 38,0% AIRPORT EVENTS 633 23,5% 21,3% 30% AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS (ATC) 652 11,6% ENROUTE EVENTS 10% 881 ENROUTE DISRUPTIONS (ATC) 924 -4,4% -10% AIRPORT CAPACITY (ATC) 1311 -5,6% ENROUTE STAFFING (ATC) 2488 -12,4%-13,4% -16,1% -12,1% -30% -17,9% AIRPORT WEATHER 5236 -30,0% -31,0% -50% AIRPORT CAPACITY 6501 -43,2% ENROUTE WEATHER 7431 JUL SEP FEB JAN ENROUTE CAPACITY (ATC) 8957 JUN DEC APR OCT AUG MAY MAY NOV MAR Comparison to same month last year Rolling 12 month trend 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 The rolling 12-month trend shows continuous improvement En-route ATC capacity (24.6%), en-route weather (20.4%) and since June 2016.