Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017 Anat Kurz and Shlomo Brom, Editors Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017 Anat Kurz and Shlomo Brom, Editors Institute for National Security Studies The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies is first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national security as well as Middle East regional and international security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and the general public. INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. The opinions expressed in this publication are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organizations and individuals that support its research. Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017 Anat Kurz and Shlomo Brom, Editors Graphic design: Michal Semo-Kovetz and Yael Bieber Cover design: Michal Semo-Kovetz Printing: Elinir Cover photo: Two F-35 aircraft in their first flight over Israel, the day after their arrival in Israel, December 13, 2016 Courtesy: Major Ofer / Israeli Air Force website Institute for National Security Studies (a public benefit company) 40 Haim Levanon Street POB 39950 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv 6997556 Israel Tel. +972-3-640-0400 Fax. +972-3-744-7590 E-mail: [email protected] http:// www.inss.org.il © 2016 All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-965-92569-6-9 Contents Preface 7 The Middle East in a Global Context One Year to Implementation of the JCPOA: Assessing the Nuclear Deal in Context Emily Landau, Ephraim Asculai, and Shimon Stein 19 Iran after the Nuclear Agreement Ephraim Kam and Sima Shine 33 Developments in the Global Oil Market: Strategic Effects on the Middle East Shmuel Even and Eran Yashiv 47 The Involvement of the United States and Russia in the Middle East Oded Eran 59 Russia: Internal and External Challenges Zvi Magen 63 The Wave of Refugees and Migrants from the Middle East: Challenges and Dilemmas for Europe Shimon Stein and Sarah Fainberg 71 China’s Middle East Policy: Between Continuity and Change Assaf Orion, Galia Lavi, Doron Ella, and Israel Kanner 81 The Middle East: The Ongoing Upheaval Syria and Iraq after the Islamic State Mark A. Heller 95 The Crisis in Syria: Learning to Live with It Udi Dekel 101 Egypt: The Struggles of the Sisi Regime Ephraim Kam 119 Challenges Confronting Saudi Arabia Yoel Guzansky 131 The Sunni and Shiite Axes in the Middle East Sima Shine 141 Challenges and Opportunities for Israel Israel and the Palestinians: Ongoing Crisis and Widening Stagnation Shlomo Brom, Anat Kurz, and Gilead Sher 151 Israel and the Palestinians: Conditioning and Capacity Building for Future Arrangements Assaf Orion and Udi Dekel 161 Arab Approaches to the Political Process and Normalization with Israel Ofir Winter 175 Turkey after the Failed Coup Attempt: Inward Focus and External Assertiveness Gallia Lindenstrauss 185 Relationship Reset: Israel and the United States Oded Eran and Michal Hatuel-Radoshitzky 195 The First Circle of Military Challenges Facing Israel: Multiple Arenas and Diverse Enemies Kobi Michael and Gabi Siboni 203 The First Cognitive War Gabi Siboni 215 Hatred and Racism between Jews and the Arab Palestinian Minority in Israel: Characteristics, Consequences, and Coping Strategies Ephraim Lavie, Meir Elran, and Muhammed Abu Nasra 225 Internal Elements of National Resilience Moshe Ya’alon 235 Conclusion Israel 2016-2017 Situation Assessment: Challenges and Responses Amos Yadlin 241 Contributors 263 Preface Preface The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the period under review, especially those with a direct or indirect effect on Israel’s national security, came as no major strategic surprise, and were, rather, developments involving highly risky escalation or deadlock. At the same time, together with the risks, the overall picture includes elements with potential for new policies and initiatives that can help Israel cope with the security and political challenges facing it, and bolster its ability to enhance its regional and international status. Today’s Middle East is pervaded in part by radical ideologies and clashing political ambitions, with many loci of regional and global tension that involve a large number of states and non-state actors, from within and outside the region. In this complex environment, it is not easy to identify specific channels for action that will yield unequivocal positive results, that is, will improve Israel’s strategic situation without arousing or aggravating risk factors. Against this background, the essays in this volume analyze the leading issues on Israel’s current political and security agenda from a variety of perspectives and with different emphases. The analyses constitute a base for anticipation of the near and medium term future, and in particular, provide the necessary background for the ability to draw new insights and formulate innovative policies. The idea that underlay previous volumes in the Strategic Survey for Israel series guided the writing of the articles in this collection as well: the 7 Preface challenges facing Israel, once identified, must generate, whenever possible, feasible policy options to deal with them. Furthermore, in order to formulate insights and policy recommendations, it is important to distinguish between actual and potential processes of change. In particular, an attempt should be made to identify those processes that Israel can encourage and help shape in order to both maintain and advance its essential interests. The first section in the book, “The Middle East in a Global Context,” is devoted to dilemmas and trends that emerged in the Middle East and the international theater during the period under review. Attention lies primarily with developments that are not directly related to Israel but that have important consequences for it. The lead article focuses on the agreement signed by Iran and the major powers in July 2015 concerning the Iranian nuclear program, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Written by Emily Landau, Ephraim Asculai, and Shimon Stein, the article concludes that Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA in the year since it was signed is not a surprise, and should not be regarded as grounds for overconfidence. Rather, at the end of the agreement period, Iran will still have an advanced nuclear program, and when the technical restrictions stated in the agreement are removed, the time required for Iran to break out to a nuclear bomb will be significantly reduced. Accordingly, Israel would do well to take advantage of the existing regional circumstances to forge ties with Arab countries fearful of Iran’s rising power for the purpose of formulating a comprehensive regional agenda. Another recommendation is for Israel to continue working with the United States administration to improve its defensive capability against ballistic missiles. The second article in this section deals with Iran after the JCPOA. Written by Ephraim Kam and Sima Shine, the article shows that Iran’s international standing, which improved as a result of the JCPOA, brings with it some negative implications for Israel, given the strengthening of the radical camp. At the same time, this development may spur the pragmatic Arab states to meet the challenge of Iran’s rising stature by expanding their engagement with Israel, as they face a common enemy. The shared regional interest, which is Israel’s as well, may even heighten if the new US administration is more determined in face of Iran’s hegemonic aspirations than was the Obama administration. 8 Preface The following article, written by Shmuel Even and Eran Yashiv, discusses developments in the global oil market and their effects on the Middle East. The essay notes that while the drop in oil prices has a positive effect on the Israeli economy, natural gas prices are also affected by oil prices, and the fall in energy prices will consequently have a negative effect on the development of the natural gas fields for export purposes. In addition, the subject of Israeli gas exports involves many different political issues in Israel and the greater region, as well as security considerations. Two articles focus on the crisis between the superpowers that intensified over the past year due to the ongoing war in Syria. Oded Eran, analyzing the issue from the American perspective, notes that while the incoming United States President, Donald Trump, charts his Middle East policy, particularly regarding the fight against the Islamic State, he will have to devise a grand strategy for US foreign policy. As part of this policy framework, Trump will have to choose how much weight the Middle East should command within that strategy as compared to other theaters. This grand strategy will necessary influence and be influenced by the dynamic between the United States and Russia in the various international arenas. Looking at the situation through Russian lenses, Zvi Magen surveys Moscow’s intervention in Syria against the backdrop of the challenges facing it both at home and abroad.