Research Report No. AU-ARI-93-8 LEO on the Cheap Methods for Achieving Drastic Reductions in Space Launch Costs JOHN R. LONDON III Lt Col, USAF ARI Command-Sponsored Research Fellow Air Force Materiel Command Air University Press Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama October 1994 Disclaimer This publication was produced in the Department of Defense school environment in the interest of academic freedom and the advancement of national defense-related concepts. The views ex- pressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States government. This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities and is cleared for public release. Contents Chapter Page DISCLAIMER ............................ ii FOREWORD ............................. xv ABOUTTHEAUTHOR ....................... xvii PREFACE .............................. xix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................... xxi INTRODUCTION .......................... xxu Study Boundaries ......................... xxvii Some Definitions .......................... xxvii Notes ................................ xxviii 1 THE PROBLEM.. ......................... 1 Expensive Transportation with Broad Impacts ......... 1 Current Launch Vehicle Cost Range .............. 1 Unique Transportation Requirements ............. 2 Establishing the Cost per Launch of Expendables ....... 2 Establishing the Cost per Launch of the Shuttle ........ 2 Representative Vehicle Costs ................... 4 Pegasus ............................. 4 Delta II 7920 .......................... 4 Atlas IIA ............................. 4 Titan IV ............................. 4 Space Shuttle .......................... 5 Launch Vehicle Cost Fraction .................. 5 DSP Launch Cost Fraction ................... 5 GPS Launch Cost Fraction ................... 6 Vehicle Performance Values ................... 6 Payload Launch Efficiency Values ................ 7 Expected Efficiency Trends ................... 8 Vehicle Development Cost and Scaling Effects ........ 8 Limited Launch Capacity ..................... 9 Cost Goals and Cost Realities ................... 10 Commercial Launch Industry Considerations .......... 11 Foreign Competition ...................... 11 Possible US Responses ..................... 13 iii -.-- . _ .*. _.._ - -.^-- Chapter Page Commerical Transportation Cost Comparisons ......... 13 Impacts of High Launch Costs ................... 14 National Space Policy Impacts .................. 14 New Initiatives .......................... 16 Launch Failure .......................... 16 The Means for Expanded Space Activities ............. 16 Summary ............................... 18 Notes.. ............................... 18 2 EXISTING LAUNCH SYSTEMS ................... 21 The Space Shuttle .......................... 21 Titan Launch Vehicles ....................... 22 Atlas Launch Vehicles ........................ 23 Delta Launch Vehicles ....................... 24 Pegasus ................................ 24 SCOUT ................................ 25 Summary ............................... 27 Notes.. ............................... 27 3 PROPOSED LAUNCH SYSTEMS .................. 29 National Launch System ...................... 29 Spacelifter .............................. 30 Single-Stage Rocket Technology .................. 31 National Aerospace Plane ...................... 32 SEALAR ............................... 34 Taurus ................................ 35 Proposed Commercial Systems ................... 36 EER Systems Conestoga ..................... 36 AMROC Aquila .......................... 36 E’ Prime Eagle .......................... 37 Lockheed Launch Vehicle .................... 37 Sea Launch Services Surf .................... 37 Summary ............................... 37 Notes ................................. 37 4 CAUSES OF HIGH LAUNCH COSTS ................ 41 The ICBM Heritage ......................... 41 The Manned Space Program Heritage ............... 42 Reasons for the Shuttle’s High Cost ................ 44 Making the Shuttle a Manned Vehicle ............. 45 The Cost of Shuttle Recoverability/Reusability ......... 45 Weight Penalties of the Shuttle’s Design ............ 46 Space Shuttle Payload Fraction ................. 47 High Complexity Equals High Cost ............... 48 iv Chapter Page The Design Establishes the Cost .................. 48 Launch Vehicle Hardware Cost per Kilogram ......... 49 Production Influences ....................... 50 The High Cost of Maximum Performance and Minimum Weight ..................... 51 The High Development Cost Roadblock ............. 51 A Zero Tolerance for Failure ................... 53 Launch Vehicle Remote Monitoring ............... 55 Range Safety Requirements ................... 56 Summary. .............................. 61 Notes ................................. 61 5 THE NECESSITY FOR COMPLEXI’IY MYTH ........... 63 Launch Vehicle Complexity: Myths and Realities ......... 63 Rocket Engines and Aircraft Engines .............. 64 The Example of Russian Launch Vehicles ............. 66 Simple and Rugged Russian Booster Designs .......... 67 An Example of Simplicity-The Russian RD-107 Rocket Engine ..................... 67 Russian Launch Operations-Simple and Fast ......... 69 The Russian Launch Program-Simple, Modular, and Robust ...................... 70 The Lessons of the German V-2 Missile Program ......... 70 The Early German Rocket Program ............... 70 Wartime Production of the V-2 .................. 74 Analyzing the V-2 in Today’s Context .............. 74 The Private Experimental Rocketeers ............... 77 The California Societies ..................... 77 Examples of Successful Designs ................. 78 The Lesson of the Backyard Rockets ............... 83 Other Examples of Simple Rocket Engines ............ 85 Summary ............................... 88 Notes ................................. 89 6 SOME KEY DESIGN CHOICES ................... 93 Manned versus Unmanned ..................... 93 The Future of the Space Shuttle ................. 93 The Advisability of Mixing People and Payloads ........ 96 Expendable versus Reusable .................... 96 The Space Shuttle’s Reusable Solid Rocket Boosters ...... 97 Single-Stage-to-Orbit ....................... 98 Expendable and Reusable Unmanned Staged Vehicles .... 100 Solids versus Liquids versus Hybrids ............... 102 Scope of the Trade Discussion .................. 102 Specific Impulse Comparison .................. 103 V Chapter Page Positive Attributes of Solid Propellants ............. 103 Negative Attributes of Solid Propellants ............ 104 Environmental Impact Comparison ............... 106 Comparison of Throttling Capability .............. 108 Other Comparisons of Various Propellant Attributes ..... 109 Liquids Hold the Best Potential to Reduce Cost ........ 111 Pump-Fed versus Pressure-Fed .................. 111 Engine Power Cycles ....................... 112 The Rationale for Using Turbomachinery ............ 112 Pressure-Fed Booster Designs .................. 112 Pump-Fed versus Pressure-Fed Studies ............. 113 The ‘Vehicle Weight Is a Cost Driver” Myth .......... 113 SSME and STME Complexities and Part Counts ........ 119 The Cost and Complexity of Turbomachinery .......... 119 Examples of Turbomachinery-Induced Problems ........ 121 Pressure-Fed Booster Pressurization Systems ......... 122 Pressure-Fed Engine Combustion Stability ........... 123 Historical Pump-Fed/Pressure-Fed Comparisons ........ 124 A Survey of Pressure-Fed Engines ................ 124 Other Simplification Possibilities ................ 130 Pressure-Fed Systems Offer the Possibility of Lower Costs ......................... 131 Summary ............................... 131 Notes ................................. 131 7 CULTURAL CHANGES ........................ 137 Recent Launch System Proposals ................. 137 NLS and Spacelifter ....................... 138 SSRT and NASP ......................... 138 Cultural Changes to Get a Space Truck .............. 140 Designing for Minimum Cost .................... 140 The Effects of DFMC Application ................ 141 Simplicity/Robustness Instead of Redundancy .......... 143 Vehicle Instrumentation and Range Operations Changes .... 144 Using Commercial Manufacturing Techniques .......... 147 Shedding the Fear of Failure .................... 148 Summary ............................... 148 Notes ................................. 149 8 BOOSTER/SPACECRAFT COST RELATIONSHIPS ........ 151 Lowering Spacecraft Cost through Weight/Volume Growth ....................... 152 The Lessons of Russian Spacecraft Design ........... 152 Benefits of Spacecraft Weight Growth .............. 153 Studies on Spacecraft Weight/Volume Growth Benefits .... 154 vi Page Opportunities for Increased Reliability .............. 155 Opportunities for Increased Design Weight Margins ....... 156 Booster/Spacecraft Interface Standardization ........... 159 Bus Standardization and Off-the-Shelf Subsystems ....... 161 Specific Benefits of Large, Inexpensive Boosters ......... 162 Benefits to Spacecraft Structural Designs ........... 163 Benefits to Spacecraft Propulsion System Design ....... 165 Benefits to Spacecraft Power System Design .......... 167 Benefits to Spacecraft Electronics Design ............ 168 Benefits to Spacecraft Communications System Design .... 169 Benefits to Spacecraft Thermal Control System Design .... 169 Benefits to Spacecraft Design Life Specifications