Vietnam Death Tolls • More than 58,000 US troops died or remain missing • 1 million Vietnamese died according to a study conducted by Charles Hirschman, Samuel Preston, Vu Manh Loi • However, other sources estimate between 1 million and 3 million died State Actors in this War • South Vietnam: State Of • North Vietnam: Democratic Vietnam (1949 – 55), Republic of Republic of Vietnam, Viet Minh Vietnam (1955- 75) • China • US • USSR • France Vietnam War (US Involvement) • August 1964 – Gulf of Tonkin Incident • March 1965- Operation Rolling Thunder, First US combat troops were sent to Vietnam • 1968 – Tet Offensive, My Lai massacre • 1968 - Peace talks Begin in Paris • 1973 – Ceasefire signed in Paris, last US troops left Vietnam • 1974 – Renewal of war • 1975 - Saigon falls First Indochina War • September 1945 - Ho Chi Minh declares independence for Vietnam • October 1945 – French soldiers arrive to restore colonial rule • March 1949 – French install Bao Dai as puppet head of state in South Vietnam • 1954- Geneva Accords signed, French pull out of Vietnam • 1956 - South Vietnam breaks the accord • 1960 – North Vietnam declares war Key Actors • Ho Chi Minh (North Vietnam) • Nguyen Van Thieu (South Vietnam) • Ngo Dinh Diem (South Vietnam) • John F. Kennedy (USA) • Lyndon B. Johnson (USA) Ho Chi Minh • President of North Vietnam from 1945 till his death in 1969 • Charismatic nationalist, led fight for independence from France after WWII Ngo Dinh Diem • President of the Republic of Vietnam 1955 to 1963 • Overthrown in military coup • Harsh ruler, ousted emperor • Modernized South Vietnam Nguyen Van Thieu • President of South Vietnam 1965 to 1975 • Resigned office a few days before the fall of Saigon John F. Kennedy • President of the United States 1961 to 1963 • Refused to commit combat troops to Vietnam • Strictly advisors at 16,000 • Assassinated 20 days after Ngo Dinh Diem Lyndon B. Johnson • President of the United States 1963 to 1969 • Fought for commitment of US combat troops to Vietnam • 16,000 to over 500,000 • Gulf of Tonkin Resolution by Congress Theories • Realist • Marxist • Hegemonic • Incrementalism • Deathwatch • Stimulus-Response Realist Theory • Claim: War perpetrated by large, powerful states • US, USSR, China • National Role Conception • Domino Theory: Eisenhower, Kennedy, McNamara and Johnson believed US was responsible for protecting the rest of the world from falling like dominos to Communism • Counter: Neglects political factors and role of beliefs between North and South Vietnam Marxist Theory (1) • Claim: War is the result of "class conflict“ and “violent revolution” • South Vietnam= Agreement to do elections was broken because the government was not popular among the majority of the population. This break from the accord led to the Vietnam War. • Who supported the Southern Government? • Elites that did not want to redistribute their wealth. The Southern Government was careful not to anger the elites because they were the only real support they had. • Who supported the Northern Government? • What Marx describes as the "proletariat" - poor peasants. Hegemonic Theory (1) • Claim: the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single nation-state is the dominant world power, or hegemon. • Soviet Union and the United States are competing to be the dominant power • Vietnam War= proxy war • By the end of the 1960s, the Soviet Union overtook China as the primary supplier of economic and military aid to North Vietnam. • The Soviet Union also provided propaganda support to the regime, condemning American actions and hailing national liberation movements in the fight against capitalism. • Throughout the conflict, the Soviet Union refused to serve publicly as a mediator between North Vietnam and the United States. Hegemonic Theory (2) • Neorealist • Claim: Archaic system creates power hungry states • US and USSR were trying to increase their influence • Counter: Was the US really trying to increase influence? • The motivation for the US could have been fear of the spread of communism rather than desire to increase influence. Domino theory is a product of this fear mongering Hegemonic Theory (3) • Neoliberal • Claim: Unregulated economy is the best for everyone. This means war will happen between countries utilizing/advocating for unregulated economies against those who don’t support regulated economies. In this theory unregulated economies are associated with democratic states and regulated economies are associated with communist states. • North Vietnam and the USSR are communists • South Vietnam and the US are democratic capitalists • Counter: Was South Vietnam really that democratic? • Evidence of Diem (the president of South Vietnam) mistreating minorities, even allowing them to killed by his military during protests • Classical Liberal • Claim: Hegemons act in "enlightened self-interest" and attempt to take on all the costs because it is good for all the actors in the system • US was trying to create a system that was best for all the actors, which was a world without Communism • Soviet Union was trying to create a system that was best for all the actors, a world with Communism • Counter: Were the US and Soviet Union really acting to "save" these countries? Or were they attempting to protect themselves? Deathwatch Theory • Claim: This war is caused by the US wanting to take advantage of an unstable Vietnam • Internationalization of a civil war • US would have a lot to gain geopolitically • Counter: This only explains when the US would have intervened in Vietnam • Possible that the US could have attacked Vietnam in the early stages of war but instead did not. Stimulus – Response Theory • Claim: Wars fought in response to arms races and increased hostility in actions and behaviors made by states. • US vs USSR in arms race • Increase in defense can lead to perception of increase in defense • Eisenhower's "security dilemma" • Realist in ideology • Counter: Doesn’t completely explain why North Vietnam invaded South Vietnam • Assumes that spiral of events leads to spontaneous conflict Incrementalism • Claim: Government decision making is based on not deviating from the status quo. Extreme decisions are avoided because they are harder to predict. • The US entered Vietnam because each administration leading up to US intervention made incremental decisions that eventually lead to war • 1945: Truman supported the French in the 1st Indochina War • 1954: Eisenhower supported South Vietnam • 1961: Kennedy increased military advisors in Vietnam • 1965: Johnson starting bombing Vietnam and sending troops • Counter: Describes how the US got involved in the war rather than why Questions for further discussion: • Do you agree with the theories we have mentioned? Can you think of other theories? • We mentioned Hegemonic Theory of War, as did the last presentations on their wars, do you think this is a root cause of war? • If so, are we ever going to be able to avoid war? Work Cited • US death tolls: http://www.english.illinois.edu/maps/vietnam/anderson.htm • Vietnamese death tolls: http://faculty.washington.edu/charles/pubs/VietnameseCasualtiesDuringAmerican. pdf • http://www3.nccu.edu.tw/~lorenzo/Jian%20China%20Involvement%20Vietnam.p df.