NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE π 3-4 (175-176) CONTENT UKRAINE ON THE EVE OF ELECTION YEAR: PUBLIC DEMAND, 2018 POSITIONS OF POLITICAL ACTORS, OUTLINE OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT Founded and published by: (Analytical Report by the Razumkov Centre) ................................................... 2 1. UKRAINIAN SOCIETY ENTERING THE ELECTION YEAR ................................ 3 1.1. Situation inside the country: Assessments and outlook ....................... 3 1.2. Attitudes towards reforms .................................................................. 12 UKRAINIAN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STUDIES 1.3. Political values and orientations, attitudes towards political actors, NAMED AFTER OLEXANDER RAZUMKOV electoral behaviour ............................................................................. 20 2. CITIZENS’ ATTITUDES TOWARDS POLICY ALTERNATIVES Director General Anatoliy Rachok IN VARIOUS SPHERES ................................................................................ 35 2.1. Policy priorities in various spheres: Regional and Editor-in-Chief Yuriy Yakymenko socio-demographic specifics ..............................................................36 Editor Valeriya Klymenko 2.2. Attitudes towards policy alternatives depending on Hanna Pashkova the citizens’ sentiments and political orientations ..............................47 3. THE STRUCTURE OF POLITICAL COMPETITION AND SUBSTANTIVE Photo-editor Andriy Khopta ASPECTS OF 2019 ELECTION CAMPAIGNS ................................................ 60 Layout and design Tetiana Ovsianyk 3.1. Presidential elections: Positioning of potential candidates, consistency between “political proposals” Oleksandr Shaptala and voters’ expectations .....................................................................60 Technical support Volodymyr Kekukh 3.2. Parliamentary elections: Main actors and lines Yevhen Skrypka of inter-party divisions........................................................................74 3.3. Political dynamics of 2019: Main scenarios ....................................... 82 This journal is registered with the 4. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................... 87 State Committee of Ukraine for Information Policy, POLITICAL LEADERS ON THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS AND registration certificate KB №4122 THE COUNTRY’S PROSPECTS (Interviews) .................................................................................................... 93 Published since 2000 in Ukrainian and English Petro POROSHENKO, Yulia TYMOSHENKO, Anatoliy HRYTSENKO Circulation: 1,300 copies THE 2019 PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: EXPERT INTERVIEWS .................................................................................... 97 Editorial address: 16 Lavrska str., 2nd floor, Halyna ZELENKO, Volodymyr KIPEN, Oleksandr MAYBORODA, Kyiv, 01015 Oleh POKALCHUK, Anatoliy ROMANIUK, Vasyl YABLONSKY tel.: (380 44) 201-11-98 THE UKRAINIANS ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT, STATE POLICY fax: (380 44) 201-11-99 AND ELECTIONS: FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSIONS .......................................... 106 e-mail: [email protected] І. Vision of ideal government, effectiveness criteria, web site: www.razumkov.org.ua public demand and ways to restore public confidence in renewed government institutions .................................................... 106 Reprinted or used materials must refer to ІІ. Models of relations between the state and the citizens ....................... 109 “National Security & Defence” ІІІ. Elections and the Parliament: Assessments, attitudes, proposals ............................................................................ 110 All photographs in this publication are taken from the public sources. POLITICAL PARTIES OF UKRAINE, IDEOLOGIES AND POLICIES: THE EXPERT SURVEY .................................................................................. 115 © 2018 Razumkov Centre Ideological positioning of political parties ............................................... 115 Referring parties to policy alternatives .................................................... 116 This publication is supported by The presence of political issues in public rhetoric ................................... 119 Konrad Adenauer Foundation Attitudes towards the reform course ....................................................... 120 Office in Ukraine Leaders’ impact on the position of the party ........................................... 120 UKRAINE ON THE EVE OF ELECTION YEAR: PUBLIC DEMAND, POSITIONS OF POLITICAL ACTORS, OUTLINE OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT (Analytical Report by the Razumkov Centre) ear 2019 is not going to be easy. Apart from challenges caused by Russian military aggression against YUkraine, the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for March and October will be the main internal political factors further aggravating the situation in the country. The 2019 elections will take place in a challenging environment. First of all, this concerns the ongoing war with Russia, which will try to influence the elections results in efforts to bring loyal political leaders and parties to power in Ukraine. Other negative aspects include the society’s disappointment with current government, coupled with low public support of its institutions, individual political leaders and pro-government political forces. The nature and results of the upcoming election will be further affected by the division of supporters of Ukraine’s European path and the political forces declaring the same course into two camps, depending on their attitudes towards the current government. The rise of radicalism in the activities of some opposition parties, as well as significant growth of populism are quite alarming trends in the Ukrainian politics. Holding both elections in one year with brief interval between them is likely to escalate political struggle, which may result in reduced efficiency of the government with further suspension of the reform processes in anticipation of successive change of the President, the Parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers. The results of 2019 elections should give answers to the following key questions: will Ukraine continue its European integration course approved by the people of Ukraine during the Revolution of Dignity? Will newly elected institutions continue reforms? Which political leaders and forces will assume responsibility for the reforms and their results? Answers to these questions primarily depend on the Ukrainian voters, as well as on candidates and political forces competing for public confidence. The Razumkov Centre’s project “Ukraine on the Eve of Election Year: Public Demand, Outline of the New Government, and the Future of Reforms” aims at exploring current sentiments of citizens who will cast ballots on the one hand, and analysing readiness of political actors and suitability of their political “supply” for society’s “demand” on the other. By doing so, the project is set to outline the new Ukrainian government and its potential policies. The analytical report consists of four sections. The first summaries public opinion about current situation in the country and the prospects of its development; section presents citizens’ views of the reforms implemented since 2014; explores ideological and political orientations of voters and their attitudes towards political actors (potential presidential candidates and political parties), electoral processes and motivations. The second explores political preferences of the Ukrainians, their attitudes towards policy alternatives, “political section proposals” in various spheres, as well as variations in voters’ preferences depending on their socio- demographic characteristics, geopolitical orientations, visions of preferred development vectors and models of social organisation. The third studies political positioning of the leading candidates and political parties ahead of the election year; section examines the content of main programmes and their compliance with voter expectations; and outlines possible scenarios of further development of political situation depending on the presidential race results. The fourth provides general conclusions about the peculiarities of political processes in 2019, consistency of section the “political supply” with people’s “political demand”, assessments of future configurations of key government institutions and their policies, as well as the impact of the above factors on Ukraine’s future development. 2 • RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • No.3-4, 2018 UKRAINE ON THE EVE OF 1. UKRAINIAN SOCIETY ELECTION YEAR: PUBLIC ENTERING THE ELECTION YEAR DEMAND, POSITIONS OF POLITICAL ACTORS, OUTLINE he 2019 elections will take place in the environment that has been shaped by controversial events Tand processes of 2014-2018. This has resulted in negative attitudes towards many issues. For example, rising expectations of positive changes after signing of the EU-Ukraine Association OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT Agreement and the start of European integration reforms were replaced by disappointment caused by a sharp decline in living standards of most Ukrainians. The surge of patriotic sentiments at the outset of Russian aggression has gradually eroded into the “war fatigue” or “ignorance”. The trust in the new government formed in 2014 has transformed into total distrust and even hostility towards it. In this context, people’s choices in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections will largely represent a synthesis of how they