Ipswich and Waveney Economic Areas Employment Land Needs Assessment Final Report February 2016 Ipswich and Waveney Economic Areas ELNA Employment Land Needs Assessment Final Report Ipswich Borough Council, Babergh District Council, Mid Suffolk District Council, Suffolk Coastal District Council and Waveney District Council February 2016 14400/MS/CGJ/LE Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL nlpplanning.com This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2016. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A Ipswich and Waveney Economic Areas ELNA : Final Report Executive Summary This Employment Land Needs Assessment has been prepared by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners on behalf of Ipswich Borough Council, Babergh, Mid Suffolk, Suffolk Coastal and Waveney District Councils. It provides an update to the economic needs evidence base for the respective local authority areas to 2031 by assessing economic development needs for the Ipswich Economic Area (covering Ipswich, Suffolk Coastal, Mid Suffolk and Babergh) and the Waveney Economic Area objectively in line with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). The study considers future quantitative land and floorspace requirements alongside related qualitative factors for individual sectors and employment uses. The key findings of the study are as follows: 1 The Ipswich Economic Area has a sizeable population which has recorded strong growth in recent years, particularly within Ipswich Borough. Growth in workforce jobs has been uneven across the area, with Ipswich Borough maintaining the largest workforce in the Economic Area. Key sectors in employment terms comprise public admin, health and education; retail and wholesale; professional and business services. 2 Business growth has lagged behind regional and national averages in recent years and the majority of businesses are small firms employing between 0 and 4 workers. Employment space in the Economic Area is dominated by industrial (B1c/B2/B8) uses with the largest concentration in Ipswich Borough. The stock of employment space has steadily been increasing over the period 2000 to 2012, and industrial uses have accounted for the majority of new development that has occurred in recent years. Availability of employment land stands at over 200ha, comprising undeveloped allocations and outstanding planning permissions, much of which is located within Mid Suffolk and Babergh. 3 The A14 represents the key commercial property market driver in the Ipswich Economic Area, with occupier movement and requirements generally flowing in an East-West direction along this corridor. The area’s other key route, the A12, is not characterised by the same level of activity, with limited synergy between Ipswich and Waveney in commercial property market terms. Smaller commercial centres such as Hadleigh and Sudbury are characterised by relatively self-contained property markets and localised demand. 4 The Ipswich Economic Area is generally perceived as a good industrial location, with the Port of Felixstowe having a very significant economic influence from an industrial perspective. Demand is largely localised with very few examples of inward investment in the area in recent years. Industrial supply has continued to tighten over recent months with local property agents pointing to a particular gap in the market for industrial 10289021v11 Ipswich and Waveney Economic Areas ELNA : Final Report units up to15,000sq.ft. The office market is significantly weaker than industrial, with very few established, recognised office centres outside of Ipswich itself. 5 The Waveney Economic Area has become increasingly recognised for its growing potential to support the offshore energy sector. Employment has declined over the last four years indicating that Waveney’s economy has particularly suffered from the effects of the recession. Key sectors in employment terms include public administration, health and education, finance and business services, retail and manufacturing. Recent economic performance across a range of business, productivity and labour market indicators has been relatively poor. 6 Employment floorspace is also dominated by industrial uses, and this stock of space has gradually increased over the last 12 years. B class floorspace is concentrated in Lowestoft, historically around the port area of Lake Lothing and more recently in industrial estates around the edge of the town. Moderate amounts of new employment development have occurred over the last few years, mainly relating to industrial (B2/B8) uses and driven by a small number of large developments. Just under 98 hectares of employment land is currently available for development, including 40 hectares within Enterprise Zones. 7 In functional economic terms, Waveney is closely connected with neighbouring Great Yarmouth, with both towns playing an important role in servicing the renewable energy sector, and to a lesser extent the oil and gas industry. It has significantly weaker economic linkages with other Suffolk authorities, due in part to the relative distance between these locations and relatively poor highway network. Waveney’s industrial market is buoyant, with recent development driven by the designation of an Enterprise Zone. However, employment land supply in the town is nearly exhausted and in absence of new development land being identified, requirements are likely to be displaced to Great Yarmouth which benefits from greater availability of land. In contrast, Waveney is not an established office location and lacks the critical mass of office occupiers to compete for office based activity and firms. 8 Two different scenarios of future employment space requirements have been considered, based on a range of lower and higher growth conditions that could arise in the future. The extent to which these scenarios reflect an assumption of higher or lower future economic growth than the sub-region has achieved in the recent past varies considerably across the individual local authorities that together comprise the two Economic Areas. 9 The overall net floorspace requirements related to a baseline EEFM growth scenario is equivalent to 439,115sqm across the Ipswich Economic Area and 64,290sq.m for the Waveney Economic Area over the 20 year period to 2031, implying in broad terms a need for 88.5ha and 13.0ha of employment land in net terms respectively. The majority of this spatial requirement relates to office (B1a/b) uses. 10289021v11 Ipswich and Waveney Economic Areas ELNA : Final Report 10 A higher growth scenario has also been considered which examines the employment benefits that could arise from the construction and ongoing maintenance of a number of new offshore wind developments that are planned to take place off the coast of East Anglia over the study period to 2031. The additional employment growth effects extend to the Waveney Economic Area only, and results in a net floorspace requirement of 79,424sq.m or 15.6ha over the 20 year period to 2031. Office uses still comprise the majority of this overall floorspace requirement, although industrial uses represent a greater proportion of the overall requirement when compared with the baseline EEFM scenario. It is important to emphasise the uncertainty associated with this higher growth scenario particularly in terms of assumptions regarding overall employment, regional retention and port distribution. 11 Sizewell C represents another significant economic development that is expected to take place within the study area over the plan period. It is likely to generate additional demand for B class space and land in Suffolk Coastal and surrounding authority areas over the period to 2031 over and above the scale of demand estimated through the baseline EEFM scenario. 12 Whilst growth needs have been identified on an Economic Area and individual local authority basis, there will be some degree of footloose needs that potentially operate and can be accommodated across individual local authority boundaries. Functional Economic Market Area analysis presented as part of the ELNA identifies a number of distinct economic geographies and commercial property market sub-areas operating across the sub-region which broadly correspond with a two tier Economic Area approach in functional geographic terms. 13 To ensure a flexible and responsive policy framework that proactively plans to accommodate economic needs over the plan period to 2031, it will be necessary not just to focus on meeting forecast quantitative requirements (which will fluctuate over time), but to consider the opportunities and risks that flow from particular policies for supporting economic growth. It will therefore be important that subsequent supply- side studies and assessments undertaken as part of the next stage of the Local Plan evidence base provide a comprehensive assessment of the quality and fitness-for-purpose of employment land supply across the two Economic Areas alongside a more detailed analysis of the qualitative supply-side issues identified as part of this study within the context of identified economic needs. 10289021v11 Ipswich and Waveney Economic Areas ELNA : Final Report Contents