EPC WORKING PAPER N° 11 ESDP: The State of Play Fraser Cameron Gerrard Quille September 2004 In strategic partnership with the King Baudouin Foundation With the support of the European Commission THE FUTURE OF CFSP ttp://www.iss-eu.org/solana/solanae.pdf 8 Quille, G., “Making multilateralism matter; The EU Security Strategy,” ESR, ISIS Europe, No.18 July 2003, at: www.isis-europe.org ; Cameron F., “Europas neue Sicherheitstrategie,” Internationale Politik, Spring 2004. 9 The Solana Paper uses the figure €160 billion, slightly different figures can be calculated from the figure drawing on SIPRI and IISS, which may be due to exchange rate differences (usually occurring when drawing upon NATO figures which are in dollars). 10 Clarke, M., Garden, T., & Quille, G., “Achieving the Helsinki Headline Goal,” Centre for Defence Studies, King’s College London, November 2001. 11 Council of the European Union, ESDP Presidency Report, Brussels 15 June 2004. see annex 1 ‘Headline Goal 2010.’ The 2010 Headline Goal process was first introduced in a French ‘Non-paper’ entitled he Future of CFSP - September 2004 T ‘Towards a 2010 Headline Goal.’ This was further elaborated by an Italian presidency Paper and again by a UK ‘Non-Paper’ focusing on implementation entitled ‘The road to 2010.’ 12 Ibid. 13 For the 5 February 2003 Le Touquet Summit see: http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/actu/bulletin.gb.asp?liste=20030205.gb.html and for the 24 November 2003 London Summit see: www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/ UKFrance_DefenceDeclaration,0.pdf 14 ‘Draft Council Joint Action on the establishment of a European Defence Agency (EDA)’, No. 10450/04, Brussels, 11 June 2004. 15 On the establishment and legal basis of the Agency see Quille, G. and Manca, D., “The European Armaments Agency: A Virtual Reality”, European Security Review No. 20 , ISIS Europe, January 2004. 16 SO207/04, Press Release, Javier Solana announced the appointment of the Chief Executive and deputy Chief Executive of the European Defence Agency, Brussels 30 July 2004. 32 EPC WORKING PAPER EPC Working Papers cover the extended discussion of contemporary European integration themes. They are normally written by in-house analysts, although outside experts may also be invited to produce papers. Working Papers are policy oriented and generally contain an executive summary and key recommendations. The papers represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the EPC. September 2004 Fraser Cameron Gerrard Quille THE FUTURE OF CFSP Table of Contents Introduction 6 1. The Development of ESDP 7 2. Improving Capabilities : The Headline Goal 2010 11 3. The Multilateral Dimension: EU-UN Cooperation 15 4. The European Defence Agency 17 he Future of CFSP - September 2004 T 5. The Role of the Commission 21 6. The Transatlantic Framework 25 7. EU-NATO 26 Conclusion 29 About the Authors: Fraser Cameron is Director of Studies at the EPC. Gerrard Quille is Acting Executive Director of ISIS Europe. 3 List of Acronyms AET Agency Establishment Team C2 Command and Control C3 Command, Control and Communications C4 ISR Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance CBRN Chemical Biological Radiological and Nuclear CDM Capability Development Mechanism CFA/CDA Capability Functional Areas/Capability Development Areas he Future of CFSP - September 2004 CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy T CMO Crisis Management Operation COTS Commercial of the shelf Technologies DCI Defence Capability Initiative DSACEUR Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe DTIB Defence Technological and Industrial Base DTEB Defence Test and Evaluation Base EACC European Airlift Coordination Centre EAC European Airlift Centre ECAP European Capability Action Plan EDA European Defence Agency ERRF European Rapid Response Force ESDP European Security and Defence Policy ESRP European Security Research Programme ESS European Security Strategy EUMS EU Military Staff EUMC EU Military Committee EUPM EU Police Mission GAERC General Affairs and External Relations Council GDP Gross Domestic Product GoP Group of Personalities HHG Helsinki Headline Goal HG2010 Headline Goal 2010 HQ Headquarters IPU Integrated Police Unit LoI Letter of Intent (Framework Agreement) NRF NATO Response Force OCCAR Organisation Conjointe de Coopération en matière d’Armement PCC Prague Capabilities Commitment PGM Precision Guidance Munitions QMV Qualified Majority Voting R&D Research and Development 4 R&T Research and Technology RMA Revolution in Military Affairs SEAD Suppression of Enemy Air Defence SHIRBRIG Stand By High Readiness Brigade SFOR Stabilisation Force UN DPKO UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations WEAG/WEAO Western European Armaments Group/Organisation WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction he Future of CFSP - September 2004 T 5 Introduction The European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) is beginning to move forward. After the disarray and shock of the Iraq war there are encouraging signs that the Member States recognise the need to improve the EU’s procedures and capabilities for security and defence. The EU is moving to implement the proposals contained in the Solana EU Security Strategy (ESS), agreed last December by the European Council. In June the EU agreed a new constitutional treaty that contains far-reaching proposals for “permanent structured cooperation” in defence. Rather than waiting for the eventual full ratification of the new Constitution by the 25, the Member States have already begun to lift key defence provisions for immediate adoption such as the European he Future of CFSP - September 2004 Defence Agency, the Solidarity Clause and an expansion of the Petersberg Tasks. The T European Commission has also produced a number of proposals to enhance Europe’s research capacity in the security field. The Union is active in two police missions in the Balkans (EUPM and Proxima) and is about to embark on its first ESDP rule of law mission in Georgia. Later this year the EU will be taking over the SFOR mission in Bosnia from NATO, which will be named operation Althea (and include an Integrated Police Unit).1 In comparison to recent years this is an ambitious agenda and demonstrates a new mood in the EU to develop its crisis management capabilities. A key element in this agenda will be focusing on the necessary capabilities to underpin the EU’s security policy aspirations. This applies equally to capabilities for civilian and military crisis management. But whilst civilian crisis management capabilities suffer from a lack of political will to develop hitherto non-existent or under-developed capabilities; military crisis management suffers from a massive over- capacity in the wrong types of forces and equipment. This has led to a significant drain on resources from European coffers and an inability to provide forces and equipment that are relevant for today’s security challenges as mapped out in the ESS. The EU must now seek to develop a European strategic culture and simultaneously promote “defence transformation.” The Union has now taken a potentially important step forward by establishing a new Agency in the field of defence capability, development, research, acquisition and armaments (European Defence Agency - EDA). Looked at from the perspective of the past fifty years of the Member States’ experience in managing defence policies, budgets and bureaucracies there is a massive task ahead. Yet the budgetary pressures facing all Member States may push them further and faster down the path of defence sharing than was possible in past years. This paper briefly reviews the main developments in ESDP and assesses the ESS. It considers the changes in the new Constitutional Treaty affecting ESDP, examines the mandate of the EDA and assesses the prospects for increased R&D in the defence field. It recognises that these new challenges are occurring in a period of uncertainty about the future of the EU and limited prospects for additional financing being available for ESDP.2 6 1. The Development of ESDP The end of the Cold War opened up the prospect of both widening and deepening the European Union (EU). The states that were under Soviet domination for half a century now had the opportunity to join the prosperous western half of Europe. The Member States of the EU also seized the opportunity, some more enthusiastically than others, to agree plans for a single currency and a common foreign and security policy (CFSP). The 1992 Maastricht Treaty that established the CFSP also foresaw “the eventual framing of a common defence policy,” which could “in time lead to a common defence.” The 1997 Amsterdam Treaty agreed on a High Representative for CFSP and introduced the Petersberg Tasks (including “humanitarian and rescue tasks, peacekeeping tasks, and he Future of CFSP - September 2004 T tasks of combat forces in crisis management, including peacemaking”) which clearly did not amount to “the framing of a common defence policy.” The two main European defence camps were led by France and the UK; the former saw the potential for a European defence policy to strengthen European autonomy and break free of their dependence on the US through NATO, whilst the UK led the camp of those convinced that NATO remained the key pillar for defence and security policy. The election of a new Labour British government in 1997 led to a change in the UK position. At St. Malo in December 1998 London and Paris initiated a new bi-lateral push on EU defence efforts with a declaration stating that the EU should develop “…the capacity for autonomous action,