Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs War of Resolutions Parliamentary Blockades in the Kosovo Negotiations Dušan Reljić SWP Comments The approaching start of the future status negotiations for Kosovo is marked by a hardening of positions in Pristina and Belgrade, as well as mounting violence in Kosovo itself. At the same time, differences are arising between the United States, which leans toward independence for Kosovo, and Russia and China, which oppose secession. On October 24 the UN Security Council tiations will not be the final phase of the (UNSC) gave a green light to the beginning process as a whole but rather would pave of negotiations following the recommenda- the way for the next stage of the inter- tions of the Norwegian diplomat, Kai Eide. national presence in Kosovo. Since early summer 1999 Kosovo has been a Since the report’s publication, the protectorate of the UN. The UN General security situation in Kosovo, according to Secretary requested that Eide prepare a the UN administration (UNMIK), has report for the UNSC on the situation in worsened. UNMIK members and vehicles, as Kosovo. In the report, the UN special envoy well as the Kosovo Police Service (KPS), have describes the situation in the province on been the target of a series of terrorist at- the ground as extremely grim. Eide point- tacks. A bomb injured many shoppers at a edly remarks upon the critical situation of market in a predominately Serb-inhabited the non-Albanian population there. Yet, village. On December 3 outside the city of Eide concludes that there will never really Prizren, a tour bus en route to Belgrade was be “any good moment for addressing attacked with hand-held rocket launchers. Kosovo’s future status.” In order to avoid Although the discharged projectiles hit the stagnation the talks must start soon. Any bus, no one was injured. In the south and further postponement of finding a new west of the province uniformed and armed status for Kosovo would only lead to a new men have periodically set up illegal check- round of disturbances. Eide concludes his points in order to inspect the passengers of report with the observation that in light of passing vehicles. They said they are the the dire political, economic and social members of a hitherto unknown “Army for conditions in Kosovo, and especially the the Independence of Kosovo (AIK).” Accord- deep animosity between Serbs and Kosovo ing to UNMIK, these attacks are aimed Albanians, that the onset of status nego- at influencing the negotiations over the SWP Comments 59 December 2005 1 future status of Kosovo. In addition, leading Referendums to politicians received anonymous threats Prevent Compromises warning them of “consequences” if they Belgrade’s basis for negotiations was laid betray “national interests” in the course of out in a November 21, 2005, parliamentary the status negotiations. In particular, the resolution that expressly ruled out relin- Movement for Self-Determination (Vetven- quishing Serbia’s legal possession of dosje), headed by the former student leader Kosovo. At the same time, the resolution Albin Kurti, exerts pressure on political implies, in barely veiled form, Belgrade’s parties. Kurti is mobilizing young followers preparedness to make far-reaching com- for an extraparliamentary opposition promises. The text reads: “The parliament against the continued existence of the UN notes that there could be different forms of protectorate or the establishment of an political organization for the future status EU protectorate in Kosovo. In this endeav- of Kosovo and Metohija that do not call our he has the support of the organization either the sovereignty or the territorial of the former members of the Kosovo integrity of the state into question.” But the Liberation Army (KLA). Thus a further parliament also warned that any attempt to escalation of street protests and attacks in divide Serbia by legalizing a one-sided Kosovo can probably be expected when secession of Kosovo would mean not only international negotiators involved in the the use of force against a democratic state status negotiations ask the parties to aban- but also the violation of international law. don their maximal initial positions. Such a solution will be declared illegiti- The chief UN negotiator, Finland’s mate and void by the parliament. former president Martti Ahtisaari, began By resolutely rejecting an imposed settle- talks with Belgrade, Pristina and other ment Belgrade obviously wants to circum- regional political centers on November 21, vent a scenario like the one at the Ram- 2005. He warned beforehand about setting bouillet negotiations over Kosovo in 1998 “artificial deadlines” or expecting “quick and 1999. Then, the US and its allies threat- results in four or five months.” He de- ened the strongman Milošević with force scribed his chances of success “as greater should he not agree to the western terms than when one buys a lottery ticket.” for Kosovo. His refusal to comply in early Ahtisaari set the date for the first unmedi- 1999 led ultimately to the NATO war ated talks between Belgrade and Pristina for against the former Federal Republic of early 2006. The leadership of the Kosovo Yugoslavia. There is the oft-expressed con- Albanians rejects direct talks with Belgrade, cern in Belgrade government circles that while the Serbian side, with Russia’s sup- the Kosovo Albanian side could undermine port, insists upon direct talks. Pristina’s the upcoming negotiations deadlocking view is that Serbia has no right to partake them for so long that the United States in decisions over Kosovo’s future. From finally loses its patience and tries to impose Belgrade’s perspective, unmediated negotia- a settlement. tions would confirm Serbia’s ownership The parliamentary resolution was based of Kosovo. What’s not yet clear is how the on a proposal authored by the head of the actual negotiations will proceed. Also, minority government, Vojislav Koštunica, nobody has expressed an opinion about the who is also the head of the national con- possible consequences of the collapse of servative Serbian Democratic Party (DSS). negotiations, although, especially in Bel- Koštunica only received parliamentary grade, there is palpable fear of collapse approval for the resolution with the sup- resulting in a settlement imposed by the port of two opposition parties, the Serbian United States. Socialist Party (SPS) and the strongest faction in the parliament, the national populist Serbian Radical Party (SRS). The SWP Comments 59 December 2005 2 nominal heads of these two parties, Slobo- rejected at once, it charged that they con- dan Milošević and Vojislav Šešelj, are at the stituted yet another division plan for Koso- moment on trial before the International vo. These charges were made by Kosovo’s Tribunal for Crimes in former Yugoslavia prime minister, Bajram Kosumi, and the (ITCY) in the Hague. It was under pressure leading opposition figure, Hasim Thaçi, as from the SRS that the mention of the pos- well as other Kosovo Albanian politicians, sibility of a referendum over the results of just as they rejected other western pro- the negotiations was inserted in the text of posals that suggested either “conditional the resolution. The intention was to limit independence” or “limited sovereignty” for the negotiating latitude of the delegation Kosovo. Such inventions, so it is concluded in order to prevent it from backsliding. The in Pristina, mirror the Belgrade rhetoric opposition Democratic Party (DS) of Serbian over “more than autonomy but less than President Boris Tadić abstained in a vote on independence” for Kosovo. The standard the resolution. Its MPs however took part in argument is that only full independence the session although they had steered clear can guarantee social progress in Kosovo and of the parliamentary debate since early lay the grounds for regional stability. Never- October, protesting against what they per- theless the MPs of the Kosovo parliament ceived to be manipulation with the man- have heeded the urgent warnings of the dates of MPs. Koštunica appears to set in- United States and UNMIK representatives creasingly less store in finding a consensus about declaring Kosovo’s independence with Tadić. After numerous public debates, before the onset of negotiations. In the end, the president and the prime minister could according to the accepted resolution in only agree that they would act as the co- which the Kosovar Albanian negotiating equal co-chairman of the Belgrade nego- position is spelled out, independence is tiating delegation. “not negotiable.” Just as in the Belgrade In his meeting with the Russian presi- resolution, the possibility of a referendum dent Vladimir Putin on November 15 in over the result of the status negotiations Moscow, Tadić suggested a settlement for was left open. This is supposed to make it Kosovo in line with the model of the Day- possible for the negotiators to act with the ton agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina. alibi that “the will of the people” prevents According to it, there should be in Kosovo them from accepting major compromises. ethnic Serbian and ethnic Albanian entities while the Serbian side would have a special relationship to Belgrade. Simultaneously Dardania instead of Kosovo? Belgrade would preserve nominal sover- The leading Kosovo Albanian politicians eignty over Kosovo. Tadić rationalized his have until now not been able to unite on proposal with the rejection of drawing new more than that they stand for the indepen- borders in the territory of former Yugo- dence of Kosovo. Although they were ex- slavia, pointing out that if the Kosovo Alba- pressly asked by Washington to settle upon nians could do this, then other regional a common position within the delegation— actors would be emboldened to invoke the and US experts were helpful with training right to self-determination themselves.