The Turkish Model for Transition to Nuclear Power Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies THE TURKISH MODEL FOR TRANSITION TO NUCLEAR ENERGY Editor : Sinan Ülgen, EDAM Researchers : Sinan Ülgen, EDAM Prof. Dr. İlhan Or, Boğaziçi Üniversity Prof. Dr. Hasan Saygın, Istanbul Aydın University Doç. Dr. Gürkan Kumbaroğlu, Boğaziçi University Doç. Dr. İzak Atiyas, Sabancı Üniversitesi Contributions by : Ahu Yiğit, EDAM Evrim Görmüş, EDAM Aaron Stein, EDAM Tolga Bağ, EDAM Translation : Tri-A Dil Hizmetleri, Danışmanlık ve Reklamcılık Rota Tercüme Hizmetleri Ltd Şti Banguoğlu Dil Hizmetleri ve Danışmanlık Ltd Şti This research has been funded through a grant obtained by the “The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation” © EDAM, 2011 Seheryıldızı sokak 23/5 34337 Etiler- Istanbul - TURKEY Tel : 0212-352 1854 Email : [email protected] www.edam.org.tr 1. Edition, Istanbul, December 2011 ISBN : 978-9944-0133-3-8 Design : Güngör Genç The Turkish Model for Transition to Nuclear Power Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies The Turkish Model for Transition to Nuclear Power About EDAM The Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) is an independent think tank based in Istanbul. EDAM’s main objective is to contribute to the public debate in Turkey and abroad on: • Turkish foreign and security policy, • Turkey- EU relations. • the impact and management of globalisation, • energy and climate change policies, EDAM undertakes research in these areas and holds regular roundtables and conferences. EDAM also cooperates with its partner institutions in EU Member States on joint research and publication activities. Institutional And Legal Structure EDAM brings together a network of members from multiple sectors of Turkish society including academia, civil society, media and business. This diversified representation enables EDAM to create a productive and effective platform through which different visions and perspectives can interact. The administrative and internal operations of EDAM are carried out by an Executive Board comprised of 14 members. An Advisory Board including both Turkish and European opinion leaders supports the activities and projects of the Centre. EDAM also employs a number of permanent professional staff. EDAM accepts project-based funding, matching grants and institutional donations in order to carry out its projects. Additionally, EDAM undertakes joint projects and research with various civil society and international organizations on the basis of the principle of shared funding. The Turkish Model for Transition to Nuclear Power About the Authors Sinan Ülgen Sinan Ülgen graduated in 1987 from the University of Virginia with a double major in computer sciences and economics. He undertook graduate studies at the College of Europe in Brugge, Belgium where he received, in 1990, a masters degree in European economic integration. He then joined the Turkish Foreign Service as a career diplomat. In 1992, he was posted to the Turkish Permanent Delegation to the European Union in Brussels where he became part of the team that negotiated the Turkey-EU customs union. Ulgen is the founder and managing partner of Istanbul Economics. The consultancy specializes in market entry strategies for international companies, political and economic risk analysis related to Turkey and regulatory affairs. Ulgen is the chairman of the Istanbul based think tank, Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM). His research and opinion pieces have been published by the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, Center for European Reform (CER) in London, the Atlantic Council in Washington DC and the World Economic Forum as well as newspapers such as Le Figaro, the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, European Voice and the International Herald Tribune. He is also the co-author of a book on Turkey-EU relations with Kemal Dervis. Ulgen is also a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels. Prof. Dr. İlhan Or Prof. Dr. Ilhan Or was born in Istanbul in 1951. He received his BSc, MS and PhD degreed from the department of industrial engineering of Northwestern University. He started his academic career at Bogazici University in 1976. He worked as a guest lecturer at Syracuse University and the University of Maryland. He became an associate professor in 1984 and a full professor in 1991. Prof. Or was the head of department of industrial engineering at the University of Bogazici in 1994-1998 and 2003-06. He is currently an academic member of this department. He is also the chair of the Bogazici University Institute of Science and a member of the Senate of the same university. His main areas of research are linear programming, production planning, risk analysis and management and energy systems planning. He has many academic publications in these areas. Prof. Or also worked as an assistant editor at the international review “Naval Research Logistics” and as a “Guest Editor” at the international review “EJORS”. Prof Or is a founding member and a board member of the Energy Economists Association of Turkey, a member of the Turkish national committee of the World Energy Council, of the Turkish National Committee of Solid Waste, the Turkish Association of Statistics and Turkish Association of Operations Research. The Turkish Model for Transition to Nuclear Power Prof. Dr. Hasan Saygın He graduated from Yıldız Technical University as a mathematical engineer, then completed his Master’s degree at the Nuclear Energy Institute of Istanbul Technical University as a Nuclear Energy Engineer. He received his PhD degree from the École Polytechnique de Montréal. At Istanbul Technical University , he became an Assistant Professor in 1994, an Associate Professor in 1996, and a full Professor in 2002. He was Vice Chair at Istanbul Technical University, Nuclear Energy Institute in 1994–1999 and Chair and Head of Nuclear Sciences Department in 2002–2003. During this time, he was an Institute Board Member and Institute Council Member at Nuclear Energy Institute . He worked at the Turkish Atomic Energy Agency as a Commission Member and Advisory Board Member in 2003– 2007. He became the Dean at Faculty of Architecture and Engineering in 2009- 2010 and Vice Rector of Istanbul Aydın University and Honorary Chairman of Energy Politics and Markets Research Center (EPPAM) at Istanbul Aydin University in 2010–2011. In 2011, he was briefly the Acting Rector at Istanbul Aydın University . He has 144 publications most of them published in international peer reviewed journals and submitted in international peer reviewed conferences and these publications were cited 340 times and 254 of them are international. He is the member of Canadian Nuclear Society (CNS) and World Association of Soil and Water Conservation (WASWC). Assoc. Prof. İzak Atiyas Izak Atiyas graduated from the economics department of the University of Bogazici in 1982. He received his Phd from economics at NYU. He worked at the private sector development directorate of the World Bank in 1988-1995. He became a guest member of the faculty at Bilkent University in Ankara in 1995-1998. He has been a member of faculty of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Sabanci University in Istanbul since 1998. His research areas are industrial economics, competition law and economics, regulation, productivity and political economy. The Turkish Model for Transition to Nuclear Power Assoc. Prof. Gürkan Kumbaroğlu Born in 1969 in Trabzon, Turkey. He received his BSc, MS and PhD degrees in industrial engineering from the Middle East Technical University in Ankara. He carried out postgraduate research at the Zurich Technical University and at the National Energy Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley. In 2003 he became a faculty member of the Bogazici University. In 2010-2011, he was a guest professor at the RWTH Aachen University. He also participated in research projects at the Energy Research Center of the same university. He has led many academic and technical research projects and has many international publications and book chapters. He is currently an associate professor at the Industrial Engineering department of Bogazici University. He is also the chairman of the Energy Economists Association of Turkey and the vice chairman of the International Association of Energy Economics. The Turkish Model for Transition to Nuclear Power Contents SECTION 1 - A Study on the Security and Safety Aspects of Switching to Nuclear Power in Turkey 1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................6 2 Classification and Management of Risks .................................................................................6 3 Safety Related Risks ..............................................................................................................7 3.1 Fundamental Safety Principles ........................................................................................8 3.1.1 Prime responsibility for safety ..................................................................................8 3.1.2 Role of the government ...........................................................................................8 3.1.3 Leadership and management for safety ....................................................................9 3.1.4 Justification of facilities and activities ........................................................................9 3.1.5 Optimization of