Chapter 3 Wind Vision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States 1 Photo from iStock 7943575 1 This page is intentionally left blank 3 Impacts of the Wind Vision Summary Chapter 3 of the Wind Vision identifies and quantifies an array of impacts associated with continued deployment of wind energy. This 3 | Summary Chapter chapter provides a detailed accounting of the methods applied and results from this work. Costs, benefits, and other impacts are assessed for a future scenario that is consistent with economic modeling outcomes detailed in Chapter 1 of the Wind Vision, as well as exist- ing industry construction and manufacturing capacity, and past research. Impacts reported here are intended to facilitate informed discus- sions of the broad-based value of wind energy as part of the nation’s electricity future. The primary tool used to evaluate impacts is the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. ReEDS is a capacity expan- sion model that simulates the construction and operation of generation and transmission capacity to meet electricity demand. In addition to the ReEDS model, other methods are applied to analyze and quantify additional impacts. Modeling analysis is focused on the Wind Vision Study Scenario (referred to as the Study Scenario) and the Baseline Scenario. The Study Scenario is defined as wind penetration, as a share of annual end-use electricity demand, of 10% by 2020, 20% by 2030, and 35% by 2050. In contrast, the Baseline Scenario holds the installed capacity of wind constant at levels observed through year-end 2013. In doing so, Chapter 3 | Summary 2 the Baseline Scenario provides the requisite Within the Wind Vision analysis, existing point of comparison from which the incremen- policies are represented and analyzed as of tal impact of all future wind deployment and January 1, 2014 (e.g., the wind production generation can be assessed. Sensitivity tax credit [PTC] is expired). No new policies analyses around the Study Scenario—varying beyond these existing policies, including new wind technology cost and performance and or proposed environmental regulations, are fossil fuel costs while holding the wind pene- explicitly modeled. Chapter 3 | SummaryChapter tration trajectory at the 10%, 20%, 35% levels— Impacts, costs, and benefits of the scenar- are used to assess the robustness of key ios presented here are contingent on the results and highlight the impacts of changes analysis approach of prescribed wind pene- in these variables. Sensitivities include single tration levels in the electric sector. Because variable Low/High Wind Cost or Low/High the resulting impacts, costs, and benefits Fossil Fuel Cost Scenarios, as well as combined depend, in part, on underlying policy and Unfavorable (High Wind Cost and Low Fossil market conditions as well as economy-wide Fuel Cost) and Favorable (Low Wind Cost and interactions, alternative approaches to reach- High Fossil Fuel Cost) Scenarios. ing the wind penetration levels outlined here Many of the results presented in this chapter would yield different results. emphasize outcomes across the full range of sensitivities. In some instances, however, Wind Industry and Electric Sector results are presented only for a single central Impacts in the Study Scenario case. This central case, referred to as the In the Central Study Scenario, total installed wind Central Study Scenario, applies common capacity increases from the 61 gigawatts (GW) installed by year-end 2013 to approximately 113 GW modeling inputs with the Business-as-Usual by 2020, 224 GW by 2030, and 404 GW by 2050. (BAU) Scenario but also includes the This growth represents nearly three doublings of prescribed wind trajectory of 10% by 2020, installed capacity and includes all wind applications: 20% by 2030, 35% by 2050. Where the land-based, distributed, and offshore wind. Of these installed capacity amounts, offshore wind comprises Central Study Scenario is the point of focus 3 GW, 22 GW, and 86 GW for 2020, 2030, and 2050, (e.g., greenhouse gas reductions, air pollution respectively. The amount of installed capacity needed reductions), uncertainty is typically reflected to meet the deployment levels considered in the by a range in the value of a given impact. Study Scenario will depend on future wind technology development. For example, with improvements in For several additional impacts analyzed, wind technology yielding higher capacity factors, only results are discussed qualitatively (e.g., 382 GW of wind capacity are needed to reach the wildlife, offshore and distributed wind) or 35% penetration level in 2050. Conversely, 459 GW reported in absolute terms for the Study would be required using 2013 technologies with only limited advancements. Across the full range of tech- Scenario rather than relative to the Baseline nology assumptions, the Study Scenario utilizes only Scenario (e.g., cumulative installed wind a fraction of the more than 10,000 GW of gross wind capacity, land area impacts, and gross jobs resource potential. supported by wind investments). 3 Chapter 3 | Summary Historical Study Scenario 25 20 13 GW Peak Installation Year 15 10 Chapter 3 | Summary Chapter 5 Annual Wind Installations (GW/year) Installations Annual Wind 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New land-based New o shore Repower Note: New Note:capacity New capacityinstallations installations include include capacity capacity added added at at a anew new location location to to increase increase the the total total cumulative cumulative installed installed capacity capacityor to replace or retiringto replace capacity elsewhere. Repowered capacity reflects turbine replacements occurring after plants reach their useful lifetime. Wind installations shown here retiring capacity elsewhere. Repowered capacity reflects turbine replacements occurring after plants reach their useful lifetime. Wind are based on model outcomes for the Central Study Scenario and do not represent projected demand for wind capacity. Levels of wind capacity to installationsachieve shown the here penetration are based trajectory on model in the outcomesStudy Scenario for will the be Central a ected Study by future Scenario advancements and do in not wind represent turbine technology, projected the demand quality of for the wind wind capacity. Levelsresource of wherewind projectscapacity are to located, achieve and the market penetration conditions, trajectory among other in thefactors. Study Scenario will be affected by future advancements in wind turbine technology, the quality of the wind resource where projects are located, and market conditions, among other factors. Figure 3-1. Historical and forward-looking wind power capacity in the Central Study Scenario The Study Scenario supports new capacity additions The Study Scenario suggests continued geographi- at levels comparable to the past, but drives increased cal diversity in wind power deployment. Figure 3-2 demand for new wind turbine equipment as a func- illustrates the state-level distribution of wind capacity tion of repowering needs. Demand for wind turbines (land-based and offshore) in 2030 and 2050 under averages approximately 8 GW/year from 2014 to 2020, the Central Study Scenario. By 2030, installed wind 12 GW/year from 2021 to 2030, and increases to 18 capacity exists in all but one state, with 37 states GW/year from 2031 to 2050. While aggregate demand having more than 1 GW of capacity. By 2050, wind trends upward (Figure 3-1), it is primarily concentrated capacity exists in all 50 states, with 40 states having in new land-based wind in the near term. Deployment more than 1 GW of installed wind capacity.2 of offshore plants and repowering (the replacement of Variations in wind resource quality, relative distances turbine equipment at the end of its useful life with new to load centers, and existing infrastructure drive state-of-the-art turbine equipment) become more regional differences in modeled wind penetration substantive factors in the 2031–2050 timeframe. levels. Based on model outcomes from the Study In the Study Scenario, wind industry expenditures Scenario, most of the western and central parts (new capital and development expenditures, annual of the United States have penetration levels that operating expenditures, and repowered capital exceed the 10% nationwide level by 2020, with some expenditures) grow to more than $30 billion/year (in regions approaching or exceeding 30% penetration. constant 2013 dollars) from 2020 to 2030, and are By 2050, wind penetration levels exceed 40% across estimated at approximately $70 billion/year by 2050.1 much of the West and upper Midwest, with levels By 2050, annual expenditures exceed $23 billion/year of 10%–40% in California, the mid-Atlantic, and for operations, $22 billion/year for repowering, and New England. In the Southeast, wind penetration $25 billion/year for new greenfield development. 1. Unless otherwise specified, all financial results reported in this chapter are in 2013$. 2. As of 2013, wind installations of 62 MW and 206 MW exist in Alaska and Hawaii respectively. While future wind deployment in these states is expected and could potentially grow beyond 1 GW, these states are not counted among the states with more than 1 GW in 2030 or 2050 because the modeling analysis was restricted to the 48 contiguous United States. Chapter 3 | Summary 4 The Study Scenario results in broad-based geographic distribution of wind capacity. Chapter 3 | SummaryChapter Total Wind Deployment Total Capacity (GW) Through 2030 60 2031 through 2050 30 15 5 ≤ 1 Note: Results presented areare forfor the the Central Central Study Study Scenario Scenario.. Across Across Study Study Scenario Scenario sensitivites, sensitivites, deployment deployment by by state state may may vary vary depending depending on changes in wind technology,technology, regional regional fossil fossil fuel fuel prices, prices, and and other other factors. factors. ReEDS ReEDS model model decision-making decision-making reflects reflects a national a national optimiza optimization- perspective.tion perspective.