European Network Operations Plan 2021 Rolling Seasonal Plan Edition 34 2 July 2021 FOUNDING MEMBER NETWORK SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION MANAGER EUROCONTROL Network Management Directorate DOCUMENT CONTROL Document Title European Network Operations Plan Document Subtitle Rolling Seasonal Plan Document Reference Edition Number 34 Edition Validity Date 02-07-2021 Classification Green Status Released Issue Razvan Bucuroiu (NMD/ACD) Author(s) Stéphanie Vincent (NMD/ACD/OPL) Razvan Bucuroiu (NMD/ACD) Contact Person(s) Stéphanie Vincent (NMD/ACD/OPL) Edition Number: 34 Edition Validity Date: 02-07-2021 Classification: Green Page: i Page Validity Date: 02-07-2021 EUROCONTROL Network Management Directorate EDITION HISTORY Edition No. Validity Date Reason Sections Affected 0 12/10/2020 Mock-up version All 1 23/10/2020 Outlook period 26/10/20-06/12/20 As per checklist 2 30/10/2020 Outlook period 02/11/20-13/12/20 As per checklist 3 06/11/2020 Outlook period 09/11/20-20/12/20 As per checklist 4 13/11/2020 Outlook period 16/11/20-27/12/20 As per checklist 5 20/11/2020 Outlook period 23/11/20-03/01/21 As per checklist 6 27/11/2020 Outlook period 30/11/20-10/01/21 As per checklist 7 04/12/2020 Outlook period 07/12/20-17/01/21 As per checklist 8 11/12/2020 Outlook period 14/12/20-24/01/21 As per checklist 9 18/12/2020 Outlook period 21/12/20-31/01/21 As per checklist 10 15/01/2021 Outlook period 18/01/21-28/02/21 As per checklist 11 22/01/2021 Outlook period 25/01/21-07/03/21 As per checklist 12 29/01/2021 Outlook period 01/02/21-14/03/21 As per checklist 13 05/02/2021 Outlook period 08/02/21-21/03/21 As per checklist 14 12/02/2021 Outlook period 15/02/21-27/03/21 As per checklist 15 19/02/2021 Outlook period 22/02/21-03/04/21 As per checklist 16 26/02/2021 Outlook period 01/03/21-11/04/21 As per checklist 17 05/03/2021 Outlook period 08/03/21-18/04/21 As per checklist 18 12/03/2021 Outlook period 15/03/21-25/04/21 As per checklist 19 19/03/2021 Outlook period 22/03/21-02/05/21 As per checklist 20 26/03/2021 Outlook period 29/03/21-09/05/21 As per checklist 21 02/04/2021 Outlook period 05/04/21-16/05/21 As per checklist 22 09/04/2021 Outlook period 12/04/21-23/05/21 As per checklist 23 16/04/2021 Outlook period 19/04/21-30/05/21 As per checklist 24 23/04/2021 Outlook period 26/04/21-06/06/21 As per checklist 25 30/04/2021 Outlook period 03/05/21-13/06/21 As per checklist 26 07/05/2021 Outlook period 10/05/21-20/06/21 As per checklist 27 12/05/2021 Outlook period 17/05/21-27/06/21 As per checklist 28 21/05/2021 Outlook period 24/05/21-04/07/21 As per checklist 29 28/05/2021 Outlook period 31/05/21-11/07/21 As per checklist 30 04/06/2021 Outlook period 07/06/21-18/07/21 As per checklist 31 11/06/2021 Outlook period 14/06/21-25/07/21 As per checklist 32 18/06/2021 Outlook period 21/06/21-01/08/21 As per checklist Edition Number: 34 Edition Validity Date: 02-07-2021 Classification: Green Page: ii Page Validity Date: 02-07-2021 EUROCONTROL Network Management Directorate Edition No. Validity Date Reason Sections Affected 33 25/06/2021 Outlook period 28/06/21-08/08/21 As per checklist 34 02/07/2021 Outlook period 05/07/21-15/08/21 As per checklist Edition Number: 34 Edition Validity Date: 02-07-2021 Classification: Green Page: iii Page Validity Date: 02-07-2021 EUROCONTROL Network Management Directorate CHECKLIST Section Date Section Date Chapter 1 12/10/2020 Chapter 7 02/07/2021 1.1 12/10/2020 7.1 12/10/2020 1.2 12/10/2020 7.2 02/07/2021 1.3 12/10/2020 7.3 02/07/2021 Chapter 2 12/10/2020 7.4 02/07/2021 2.1 12/10/2020 7.5 02/07/2021 2.2 12/10/2020 Chapter 8 11/03/2020 2.3 12/10/2020 8.1 11/03/2020 2.4 12/10/2020 Chapter 9 02/07/2021 2.5 12/10/2020 9.1 02/07/2021 2.6 12/10/2020 9.2 02/07/2021 2.7 12/10/2020 Chapter 10 02/07/2021 Chapter 3 12/10/2020 10.1 02/07/2021 3.1 12/10/2020 10.2 02/07/2021 3.2 12/10/2020 10.3 02/07/2021 3.3 12/10/2020 Chapter 11 02/07/2021 Chapter 4 02/07/2021 Annex 1 02/07/2021 4.1 12/10/2020 Annex 2 02/07/2021 4.2 02/07/2021 4.3 12/10/2020 Chapter 5 12/10/2020 Chapter 6 02/07/2021 6.1 02/07/2021 6.2 02/07/2021 6.3 12/10/2020 6.4 09/04/2021 6.5 12/10/2020 6.6 12/10/2020 Edition Number: 34 Edition Validity Date: 02-07-2021 Classification: Green Page: iv Page Validity Date: 02-07-2021 EUROCONTROL Network Management Directorate EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The European Network Operations Plan (NOP) – Rolling Seasonal Plan is a special version of the NOP focusing on the planning of the next six weeks and in managing the execution and implementation of the 5-years NOP. It provides for a consolidated European network view of the evolution of air traffic and facilitates ANSPs and airports planning to match traffic demand in a safe, efficient and coordinated manner. It is developed by EUROCONTROL NM in cooperation with operational stakeholders ensuring a six weeks rolling outlook, published on the NM Network Operations Portal and updated weekly. Outlook 5 July – 15 August 2021 Traffic outlook – A significant traffic increase is expected for July, gradually growing from a daily average of around 23000 flights at the beginning of July to 25500 flights at the end of July (from 65% to 73% of 2019 traffic). During the first half of August, traffic levels are expected to reach a daily average of almost 27000 flights (78% of 2019 traffic). The continuation of the UK travel restrictions continues to affect the aircraft operators schedules in the first two weeks of July. If the restrictions are lifted, the traffic might come back on a relatively short notice. This traffic outlook is highly dependent on the evolution of State restrictions and on the subsequent update of the airline schedules. En-route capacity outlook – Some ANSPs need to review their plans as the capacity provided would not be sufficient to cope with the traffic demand (Tirana, Zagreb, Maastricht, Reims, Paris, Marseille, and Athinai ACCs). Some flexibility will be also required to open more sectors during the peak hours or to extend the opening hours, and some ANSPs should plan to open their currently indicated maximum sector opening schemes to avoid en-route capacity delay (Wien, Nicosia, Karlsruhe, Makedonia, Budapest, Riga, Lisboa, Bucuresti, Palma, Malmo and Ankara ACCs). Some upper layer sectors might also start to get saturated and some STAM measures might be needed to better balance traffic between the different layers (Bordeaux, Reims, Marseille, Brest, Karlsruhe, Makedonia, Skopje and Madrid ACCs). ANSPs are strongly recommended to follow the sector opening schemes provided in the Summer 2021 NOP and to foresee a 10% buffer in the expected traffic demand to avoid sudden capacity problems and possible weather issues. Airport outlook – Airports continue to confirm they can increase capacity with demand. EUROCONTROL data suggests that traffic and passenger growth trends are strong, potentially leading to additional queuing times and slower turnaround in passenger terminal processes due to COVID requirements. Careful monitoring and preparation is essential in the event that passenger load factors increase significantly commensurate with the growth in airline schedules. Airports are requested to continue updating Airport Corner and when capacity issues are anticipated they are invited to coordinate potential mitigations with the NM Airport Function. Safety - As part of the collaborative effort to ensure safe, smooth and coordinated recovery of the European ATM network operations from the COVID-19 crisis, the NM developed in cooperation with the EUROCONTROL Safety Team and the SAFOPS group a safety argument and a list of potential hazards/safety issues. The material has also been coordinated with the CANSO CESAF and with the EASA ATM CAG. The purpose of the Safety Argument is to assist ANSPs in planning the provision of a safe ATS when traffic increases, by providing a comprehensive reference to the elements of the functional system that might have been affected by the crisis-related measures and need to be properly accounted for and managed. Green aviation measures – NM, together with the operational stakeholders, relaxed up to 1200 RAD measures. This generated distance flown savings amounting to 26000 NM per day. The RAD relaxation will continue until 4 November 2021 supported by a close traffic monitoring to assess the need to apply scenarios or re-instate some RAD restrictions, if so required. Moreover, the suspension of additional RAD restrictions in support of improved flight planning options for the airspace users will be envisaged.