Evaluation of the European Union’s Co-operation with Kenya Final Report Volume 2, Annexes June 2014 Evaluation carried out on behalf of the European Commission Development and Cooperation EuropeAid Lead company Merzhauser Str. 183 Implementing D-79100 Freiburg company Consortium composed by DRN, ECDPM, Ecorys, Particip Leader of the Consortium: Particip Contract No EVA 2012/304196 This evaluation was commissioned by the Evaluation Unit of the Directorate General for Development and Cooperation – EuropeAid (European Commission) The opinions expressed in this document represent the authors’ points of view which are not necessarily shared by the European Commission or by the authorities of the concerned countries. This report has been prepared by: ECORYS Nederland B.V. Watermanweg 44 3067 GG Rotterdam P.O. Box 4175 3006 AD Rotterdam The Netherlands T +31 (0)10 453 88 00 F +31 (0)10 453 07 38 E [email protected] Registration no. 24316726 W: www.ecorys.nl Evaluation team: Anneke Slob Team leader, monitoring and evaluation specialist Martin van der Linde Deputy team leader, budget support and PFM expert Jens Larsen Transport sector expert Rudy Ooijen Agricultural and rural development expert Karuti Kanyinga Governance expert Lydeke Schakel Non state actors expert Rotterdam, June 2014 The evaluation was managed by the DEVCO Evaluation Unit. The authors accept sole responsibility for this report, drawn up on behalf of the Commission of the European Union. The report does not necessarily reflect the views of the Commission. Table of Contents List of Tables and Figures 4 Annex 1 Terms of Reference 7 Annex 2 List of people interviewed 31 Annex 3 Document list 39 Annex 4 Methodology 49 Annex 5 Portfolio analysis 53 Annex 6 EQ1: Responsiveness 71 Annex 7 EQ2: Donor coordination and harmonisation 97 Annex 8 EQ 3: Results focus 107 Annex 9 EQ4: General budget support strategy 117 Annex 10 EQ5: PFM reforms 135 Annex 11 EQ6: Agricultural and Food Security Improvements 151 Annex 13 EQ8: Transport sector improvements 175 Annex 14 EQ9: Economic transport improvements 197 Annex 15 Governance improvements 215 Annex 16 Overview of analysis of JAORs, ROM and evaluation reports 227 Annex 17 Kenyan context 241 3 List of Tables and Figures Tables Table A.4.1 Phasing of the evaluation 49 Table A.5.1 Sector/topic categories 55 Table A.5.2 Shares sub-sectors/activity groups Transport sector 57 Table A.5.3 Capacity building: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 57 Table A.5.4 Construct/upgrade Northern Corridor and road to Ethiopia: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 58 Table A.5.5 Upgrade rural roads: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 58 Table A.5.6 Upgrade tourist roads: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 59 Table A.5.7 Upgrade road network Nairobi: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 59 Table A.5.8 ASAL research: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 60 Table A.5.9 Drought management: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 61 Table A.5.10 Food Security: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 61 Table A.5.11 Community development: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €)62 Table A.5.12 Capacity building: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 62 Table A.5.13 Environmental management and biodiversity: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 63 Table A.5.14 Specific crop and livestock support. planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 64 Table A.5.15 Planned and disbursed GBS amounts (in €) 65 Table A.5.16 Local governance: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 66 Table A.5.17 NSA democratic governance: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 67 Table A.5.18 Electoral capacity building & observation: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 67 Table A.5.19 Human rights: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 68 Table A.5.20 NSA community development: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 69 Table A.5.21 Assistance to access to law & justice reforms: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 69 Table A.5.22 Other governance support activities: planned and paid amounts per decision (in €) 70 Table A.8.1 ROM coverage per sector 111 Table A.8.2 Evaluation coverage per sector 112 Table A.13.1 Funding of the Roads Sector (Kshs. Billion) 188 Table A.13.2 Rehabilitation share of maintenance works for trunk roads (Road classes A, B and C) (Kshs. Billion) 189 Table A.13.3 Road Condition for different road categories (in %) 191 Table A.13.4 Development in Road Condition of the Northern Corridor 192 4 Table A.14.1 Overview of trunk road planning issues from ROM reports1) 2) 198 Table A.14.2 Expected or actual delays in starting and technical completion of trunk road projects 199 Table A.14.3 Travel Times by Truck on main road sections 204 Table A.14.4 Composition of total transport costs for moving a 20 feet container by truck on selected routes for foreign trade related transports (%) 206 Table A.14.5 Calculated reduction of total transport costs at selected tours due to the three EU projects on NC 208 Table A.14.6 Estimates of Import and Export Tonnages (1000 Tons) in 2007 211 Table A.17.1 Main Economic Indicators Kenya 241 Figures Figure A.4.1 Data collection and analysis process 52 Figure A.5.1 Percentage funds planned and paid per cycle of EDF as share of total planned and paid EFD funds over the period 2006-2012 54 Figure A.5.2 Percentage of total amount paid by sector 56 Figure A.5.3 Breakdown of the other sectors’ category 56 Figure A.5.4 Percentage of total amount paid by sub-sector/activity group Agriculture/Rural development sector 60 Figure A.5. 5 Percentage of total amount paid by sub-sector/activity group Governance sector 66 5 Annex 1 Terms of Reference 7 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Development and Cooperation — EuropeAid Quality and Impact - Evaluation Evaluation of the European Union's co-operation with Kenya Country Level Evaluation Commission européenne, B-1049 Bruxelles / Europese Commissie, B-1049 Brussel - Belgium. Telephone: (32-2) 299 11 11. Office: L-41 03/83. Telephone: direct line (32-2) 2962939. Fax: (32-2) 2992912. Table for contents 1 MANDATE AND OBJECTIVES............................................................................................................ 3 2 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Country context....................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Overview of European Union's Cooperation with Kenya........................................................ 4 3 SCOPE .............................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Temporal and legal scope........................................................................................................ 8 3.2 Thematic scope........................................................................................................................ 9 4 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH ................................................................................................... 9 4.1 The desk phase...................................................................................................................... 10 4.2 Field Phase (country mission)................................................................................................ 12 4.3 Synthesis phase ..................................................................................................................... 12 4.3.1 The Draft Final Report ................................................................................................... 12 4.3.2 The in-country seminar ................................................................................................. 13 4.3.3 The Final Report ............................................................................................................ 13 5 RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE MANAGEMENT AND THE MONITORING OF THE EVALUATION........... 13 6 THE EVALUATION TEAM................................................................................................................ 13 7 TIMING .......................................................................................................................................... 14 8 OFFER FOR THE EVALUATION........................................................................................................ 14 ANNEXES.................................................................................................................................... 15 ANNEX 1: INDICATIVE DOCUMENTATION TO BE CONSULTED FOR THE PURPOSE OF THE EVALUATION BY THE SELECTED FRAMEWORK CONTRACTOR.............................. 15 ANNEX 2: OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE FINAL REPORT............................................... 16 ANNEX 3 - QUALITY ASSESSMENT GRID .......................................................................... 18 ANNEX 4 – TIMING TO BE FILLED-IN................................................................................ 19 ANNEX 5: EVALUATION CRITERIA AND KEY ISSUES ....................................................... 20 ANNEX 6: NOTE ON THE CRITERION OF COHERENCE AND ON THE 3CS .................... 21 ANNEX 7: PRINCIPLES REGARDING THE DRAFTING OF EVALUATION QUESTIONS ... 22 10 1 MANDATE AND OBJECTIVES Systematic and timely evaluation of its programmes is a priority of the European Commission (further referred