EVALUATION OF NEXT GENERATION BEACH AND DUNE EROSION MODEL TO PREDICT HIGH FREQUENCY CHANGES ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST OF FLORIDA By NICOLE SHELBY SHARP A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2008 1 © 2008 Nicole Shelby Sharp 2 To my mother and father 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my supervisory committee chair, Dr. Robert G. Dean, for his continuous support and guidance. His insight and knowledge into the subject is inspiring, and his time that he has spent with me over the past two years has been very insightful. I also thank Dr. Arnoldo Valle Levinson for serving on my supervisory committee. I would also like to thank Jamie MacMahan for introducing to me the topic of coastal engineering. If it were not for his spirit and enthusiasm for the subject, I feel as though I would not be where I am today. Lastly, I cannot forget to thank my parents and my sister for their patience in my schooling process and for always answering the phone in my times of need. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...............................................................................................................4 LIST OF TABLES...........................................................................................................................7 LIST OF FIGURES .........................................................................................................................8 ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................................11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................12 Coastal Processes....................................................................................................................12 Shoreline Forecasting .............................................................................................................14 Objective and Scope ...............................................................................................................15 2 LITERATURE REVIEW.......................................................................................................18 Mean High Water (MHW) Erosion Calculation Methods......................................................18 Hurricane Model.....................................................................................................................19 Bathystrophic Storm Tide Model ...........................................................................................21 Shoreline Change Models.......................................................................................................23 3 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................29 Hurricane Model.....................................................................................................................29 Hurricane Storm Surge Model................................................................................................30 NEXTGEN Erosion Model.....................................................................................................35 Contour Changes ....................................................................................................................36 Measured Contour Change..............................................................................................36 Predicted Contour Change...............................................................................................37 Statistical Analysis of Results ................................................................................................38 Measured versus Predicted..............................................................................................39 Measured 10 Foot Contour versus Measured Zero Foot Contour...................................39 4 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS.................................................................................................44 Measured Shoreline Change Results ......................................................................................44 Storm Surge Results ...............................................................................................................46 Cross-Shore Transport Model.................................................................................................49 Statistical Analysis of Data.....................................................................................................53 Measured 10 Foot versus Predicted 10 Foot Predicted Contour .....................................53 Measured 10 Foot versus Measured Zero Foot Contour.................................................54 Model Sensitivity to Input Variables...............................................................................55 5 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................77 Summary and Conclusions .....................................................................................................77 Storm Surge Model..........................................................................................................77 Measured Contour Change..............................................................................................78 Representation of High-Frequency Shoreline Changes ..................................................78 Recommendations for Future Study .......................................................................................79 Storm Surge Model..........................................................................................................79 Measured Contour Change..............................................................................................79 Representation of High-Frequency Shoreline Changes ..................................................80 APPENDIX A STORM SURGE HYDROGRAPHS .....................................................................................81 B NEXTGEN PROFILE EVOLUTION RESULTS..................................................................87 LIST OF REFERENCES.............................................................................................................117 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................................120 6 LIST OF TABLES Table page 4-1 Comparison between predicted and measured storm surge...............................................72 4-2 Individual setup values and maximum adjusted surge ......................................................73 4-3 Individual R-squared and r values of predicted versus measured +10 contour change for six common profiles in each storm event.....................................................................74 4-4 Individual R-squared values for measured +10 contour change versus measured zero contour change for each storm event .................................................................................75 4-5 Predicted average change of +10 contour from NEXTGEN model for the three cases of storm surge ....................................................................................................................76 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 1-1 General location of study area and Department of Environmental Protection monuments.........................................................................................................................17 2-1 Sketch of idealized hurricane model..................................................................................27 2-2 Basic concepts for Kriebel and Dean’s erosion model . ....................................................28 3-1 Definition sketch of hurricane “catchment” zone..............................................................41 3-2 Geometric sketch of θrot ,θl , and coordinate system. ........................................................42 3-3 Example sketch of μ and θslnew_ .......................................................................................43 4-1 Average +10 and zero foot contour change over nine common Monuments....................57 4-2 Zero foot contour accretion due to large storms. ...............................................................58 4-3 Predicted storm surge hydrograph for Hurricane Eloise....................................................59 4-4 Plot of maximum predicted un-scaled surge versus maximum measured surge at location of maximum surge. ..............................................................................................60 4-5 Measured storm surge hydrograph for Hurricane Eloise from historical tide gage data.....................................................................................................................................61 4-6 Measured storm surge hydrograph for Hurricane Opal from NOAA CO-OPS database..............................................................................................................................62 4-7 Measured storm surge hydrograph for Hurricane Ivan from NOAA CO-OPS database..............................................................................................................................63 4-8 Measured storm surge hydrograph for Hurricane Dennis from NOAA CO-OPS database..............................................................................................................................64