Unclassified DSTI/STP/TIP(99)8/FINAL Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques OLIS : 17-May-1999 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Dist. : 18-May-1999 __________________________________________________________________________________________ English text only DIRECTORATE FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRY Unclassified DSTI/STP/TIP(99)8/FINAL COMMITTEE FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL POLICY Working Group on Innovation and Technology Policy TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: PROCEEDINGS OF THE BUDAPEST WORKSHOP 11 DECEMBER 1998 English text only 78040 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format DSTI/STP/TIP(99)8/FINAL TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD.................................................................................................................................................. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 4 Environment and Technology 2010 by Tor-Petter Johnsen, Programme Director, Industry and Energy The Research Council of Norway.......................................................................................................................... 7 Characteristics of the Hungarian Foresight Process and the Scenario Approach of the “Natural And Built Environment” Panel by Attila Havas, Hungarian National Committee For Technological Development (OMFB), Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) Office, Janos Szlavik and Miklós Füle, Technical University of Budapest ................................................................................................................................. 14 Resource-efficient Technologies – Results and Methodological Aspects of the German Delphi '98 Survey by Uwe Kuntze Fraunhofer-Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe.......... 26 Environment in Technology Foresight by Yukiko Fukasaku, Science and Technology Policy Division, Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD ..........................................................................49 Critical Technologies for the Environment by Gerald M. Stokes, Associate Laboratory Director Pacific NW National Lab, United States .................................................................................................................. 73 Technology options for Sustainable development by Frans A. Vollenbroek, Rob A.P.M. Weterings and Maurits Butter............................................................................................................................................... 83 Post Foresight Implementation in The United Kingdom by Hugh Williams, Managing Director, Ecotec Chair, Foresight Cleaner Technologies and Processes Panel, United Kingdom .......................................... 95 Recent industry trends in relation to technology policy development by Vera Calenbuhr Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain..................................................................................... 104 Technology Foresight and Sustainable Development Using a Scenario Approach by Andrew Dearing World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Geneva................................................................ 116 2 DSTI/STP/TIP(99)8/FINAL FOREWORD There is a growing interest in technology foresight in the OECD Member countries because of the need to set priority in research and development in the context of the increasing cost of research and the tightening public budget for research. R&D efforts also need to be directed towards fulfilling social needs at the same time as providing sources of innovations that contribute to sustainable growth, competitiveness and job creation. Sustainable development is a future need that is accorded increasing importance by Governments of OECD Member countries. As the papers contained in this document show, technology foresight is a tool that can be used to match future needs with the supply of science and technology. Technology is one of the areas that comprise the OECD horizontal programme on Sustainable Development. The OECD Committee for Scientific and Technological Policy and the Working Party on Innovation and Technology Policy are actively engaged in contributing to the programme. The papers contained in this document were presented at the OECD-OMFB (Hungarian National Committee for Technological Development) Workshop on Technology Foresight for Sustainable Development, held in Budapest on 11 December 1998. The papers discuss a range of issues related to technology foresight and environmental sustainability. In addition to the discussion of foresight methodology relevant to environmental sustainability, results of the major foresight studies, including key future technologies that contribute to sustainable development and the policy relevance and issues related to the implementation of results of technology foresight for sustainable development, are discussed. Copyright OECD, 1999 Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this material should be made to: Head of Publications Service, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. 3 DSTI/STP/TIP(99)8/FINAL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As a part of the activities of the Working Party on Innovation and Technology Policy, a workshop was held in Budapest on 11 December 1998, under the joint sponsorship of the Hungarian National Committee for Technological Development (OMFB) and the OECD, on Technology Foresight for Sustainable Development, with the participation of experts and officials from more than a dozen OECD Member countries. This document includes the nine papers presented at the workshop. The papers discuss issues surrounding foresight methodology for environmental sustainability, results of some recent foresight studies including key future technologies for sustainable development, and policy relevance and implementation of foresight results as they relate to achieving environmental objectives. There is a growing interest in technology foresight in the OECD Member countries for priority setting in research and for directing research and development efforts to be more responsive to future needs. Sustainable development is a future need along with enhancing growth, competitiveness, and job creation, to which Governments of OECD Member countries attach increasing importance. Technology foresight is a tool that can be used to match emerging technologies with future needs. The papers present useful insights into the nature of technologies relevant for the environment, problems of foresight methodology for environmental objectives, and issues in policy relevance and implementation of the results. One clear trend that emerges from the papers is that the nature of the technologies that contribute to improved environmental performance has evolved over the last few decades. Some of the papers (Johnsen, Calenbuhr) refer to the narrow meaning of end-of-pipe technologies when using the term, “environmental technology” and point to their limited contribution to enhancing competitiveness while improving environmental performance. They stress the importance of a broader definition that includes process and product integrated cleaner, and more resource efficient technologies. Such a broader definition is used by the other authors when using the term environmental technology, and the recent shifts to such cleaner and resource efficient technologies are proving to contribute to the improvement, not only of environmental performance, but also economic performance, through cost saving and enhancing competitiveness and productivity growth of firms that develop and use them. Awareness is growing that innovations for environmental sustainability present an enormous area of business opportunities; hence, economic growth and job creation. Such a change in the nature of environmental technologies makes them even more diffuse, as some authors stress (Kuntze, Fukasaku, Williams). Technologies that enhance environmental performance and sustainability are found in all established disciplinary areas and are applied in all industrial and infrastructure sectors. They are basically bound by their common objective of improving environmental sustainability. The diffuseness of technologies relevant for environmental sustainability points to the importance of an interdisciplinary approach in research and development, closer links between government, industry and universities not only in research but also in the application of some technologies. As Vollenbroek et al. suggest, technologies that enhance environmental sustainability work best when applied not as separate technologies but as technology systems. The interdisciplinary and intersectoral nature of environmental technologies point also to the importance of international co-operation in developing relevant technologies, as these papers stress. This is especially important when addressing global environmental issues. 4 DSTI/STP/TIP(99)8/FINAL Another point about technologies relevant for sustainability is that such technologies extend beyond technologies that produce or are embodied in tangible goods. Some papers point to the importance of organisational or “soft” innovations (Kuntze, Williams), and Calenbuhr cites examples of the sale of goods being replaced by services. This articulation of market demand for services provided by manufactured goods, rather than