Distributed generation and demand study -Technology growth scenarios to 2030 South Wales licence area September 2016 Version: Final Regen SW, The Innovation Centre, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RN T +44 (0)1392 494399 E [email protected] W http://www.regensw.co.uk Registered in England No: 04554636 This report was produced for Western Power Distribution Issue date September 2016 Version Final Cheryl Hiles, Hazel Williams, Johnny Written by: Gowdy and Joel Venn Approved by: Cheryl Hiles Regen SW, The Innovation Centre, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RN T +44 (0)1392 494399 E [email protected] W www.regensw.co.uk Registered in England No: 04554636 All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or published in any way (including online) without the prior permission of Regen SW Confidential – Final Page 2 Regen SW 2016 Table of Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... 5 CONTEXT ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 STRATEGIC NETWORK INVESTMENT ................................................................................................................... 5 OBJECTIVE AND METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................... 6 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION AND DEMAND TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................... 7 2 INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT .................................................................................................................. 9 CONTEXT - GROWTH OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION .............................................................................................. 9 STRATEGIC DISTRIBUTION NETWORK REINFORCEMENT ........................................................................................ 11 BUILDING A CASE FOR STRATEGIC DISTRIBUTION NETWORK REINFORCEMENT ........................................................... 11 A SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE FOR WALES ......................................................................................................... 12 3 DISTRIBUTED GENERATION AND DEMAND TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS – OBJECTIVES, METHOD AND RESULTS OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................................... 15 OBJECTIVES AND OUTPUT .............................................................................................................................. 15 ASSESSMENT SCOPE ..................................................................................................................................... 15 SUMMARY OF METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................... 17 SUMMARY OF RESULTS ................................................................................................................................. 18 4 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - ONSHORE WIND TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS ..................................... 21 SUMMARY ONSHORE WIND GROWTH SCENARIO 2016-2030 .............................................................................. 21 ONSHORE WIND – FUTURE ENERGY POTENTIAL .................................................................................................. 22 HISTORIC GROWTH AND BASELINE CAPACITY ..................................................................................................... 24 SCENARIO GROWTH ANALYSIS 2020-2030 ...................................................................................................... 29 KEY GROWTH DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS IN THE SOUTH WALES LICENCE AREA TO 2030 .......................................... 33 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF ONSHORE WIND ACROSS ESAS ............................................................................. 34 5 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS ............................................... 36 SUMMARY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION GROWTH SCENARIOS 2016-2030 ............................................................... 36 SOLAR PV – FUTURE ENERGY AND GROWTH POTENTIAL ...................................................................................... 37 HISTORIC GROWTH AND BASELINE CAPACITY ..................................................................................................... 41 SOLAR PV PIPELINE PROJECTION TO 2017 ........................................................................................................ 42 SOLAR PV SCENARIO GROWTH ANALYSIS 2017-2030 ........................................................................................ 45 KEY GROWTH DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS IN THE SOUTH WALES LICENCE AREA TO 2030 .......................................... 49 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF SOLAR PV DISTRIBUTED GENERATION 2030 ............................................................ 50 6 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - OFFSHORE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS ................................ 53 OFFSHORE ENERGY SCOPE AND CONTEXT .......................................................................................................... 53 OFFSHORE ENERGY – FUTURE ENERGY POTENTIAL .............................................................................................. 54 OFFSHORE ENERGY SCENARIO BASELINE, PIPELINE AND GROWTH ANALYSIS 2016-2030 ............................................ 55 KEY GROWTH DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS IN SOUTH WALES TO 2030 ................................................................... 57 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF OFFSHORE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION ......................................................... 58 7 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - ANAEROBIC DIGESTION TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS .......................... 60 BASELINE ................................................................................................................................................... 61 PIPELINE .................................................................................................................................................... 61 FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL ......................................................................................................................... 61 SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................................. 61 Page 3 Regen SW 2016 8 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - HYDROPOWER TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS ....................................... 64 BASELINE ................................................................................................................................................... 65 PIPELINE .................................................................................................................................................... 65 FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL ......................................................................................................................... 65 SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................................. 67 9 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - ENERGY FROM WASTE TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS ........................... 68 BASELINE ................................................................................................................................................... 68 PIPELINE .................................................................................................................................................... 68 FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL ......................................................................................................................... 68 SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................................. 69 10 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - DEEP GEOTHERMAL ........................................................................................ 70 11 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - ENERGY STORAGE TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS .................................. 71 TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW AND FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL ................................................................................. 71 CURRENT WELSH ENERGY STORAGE BASELINE AND PIPELINE APPLICATIONS ............................................................. 77 ENERGY STORAGE GROWTH IN SOUTH WALES BY SCENARIO ANALYSIS TO 2030 ....................................................... 79 12 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - ELECTRIC VEHICLES TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS ................................. 84 BASELINE ................................................................................................................................................... 84 FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND SCENARIOS ................................................................................................... 85 13 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS - HEAT PUMPS TECHNOLOGY GROWTH SCENARIOS .......................................... 89 SUMMARY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION GROWTH SCENARIOS 2016-2030 ............................................................... 89 HEAT PUMPS – FUTURE ENERGY POTENTIAL .....................................................................................................