ISSN 2532-845X ASRIE Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Africa GEOPOLITICAL REPORT Volume 4/2018 MEDITERRANEAN SEA CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Geopolitical Report Mediterranean Sea: Current Trends and Future Challenges Volume IV Year 2018 A publication of the Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Africa Online ISSN: 2532-845X Pag. 2 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Geopolitical Report A publication of the Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Africa (ASRIE) The fourth volume of Geopolitical Report titled Mediterranean Sea: Current Trends and Future Challenges is dedicated to the analysis of the strategic Mediterranean region with the purpose of highlighting currents problems and challenges, possible future solutions and the political and economic trends. Website: www.asrie.org Email: [email protected] Registered at the Italian Revenue Agency, Fiscal Code 97759360585 Online ISSN: 2532-845X Date: October 2018 Author(s): Emanuel Pietrobon, Matteo Mirti, Antonciro Cozzi, Francesco Cirillo, Ugo Maria Gaudino, Dan- iele Garofalo, Luca Fortini. Scope The aim of the Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Africa (ASRIE) is to promote international relations and business among Italy and foreign countries and further the study of and teaching on the geopolitical, economic, cultural and social characteristics of processes and developments in different areas of the world. The Association is the result of shared experience and knowledge by geopoliti- cal analysts, journalists, businessmen willing to promote the intercultural exchange between Italy and coun- tries in both the Eurasian Region and Africa, creating a link among the world of Business, Academy and Re- search. The association’s publication, Geopolitical Report, aims at investigating the current geopolitical and soci- ocultural events and trends which are shaping the world of international relations, business and security cre- ating a debate by allowing scholars and professional experts to share their views, perspectives, work results, reports and research findings. One can submit manuscripts, analytical reports, critical responses, short arti- cles, commentaries, book reviews to [email protected]. Information about the association’s goals, activities, projects and publications which can be freely downloaded can be found on the website www.asrie.org. Copyright © 2018 ASRIE All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the pub- lisher, addressed “Attention: Permissions Coordinator,” at [email protected]. Pag. 3 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Pag. 4 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Introduction Since the ancient times, the Mediterranean Sea has been a strategic area where different civilisations, cultures, empires, ideologies have influenced the history of the humankind. For its specific peculiarities and characteristics, the Mediterranean region might be considered as a waterway for cultural and commercial exchanges and the theatre for geopolitical and strategic ambitions. If we look at the history of the Mediterranean Sea, it is possible to state that in the last 150 years different emergencies have occurred in the region and many of them are still not resolved. The last crisis is the revolutionary movements against the central authority registered in North Africa and the Middle East well-known as the ‘Arab Spring’ whose consequences are still influencing the region and caused the rise of ter- rorist groups, migration, the collapse of authoritarian regimes in favours of new leaders, civilian wars and instability. The security of this geopolitical territory includes numerous and difficult ques- tions affecting economic interests and energy supplies. Indeed, Europe consumes 65 per cent of oil and natural gas transited by sea and land in the Mediterranean region while the mix of the financial crisis, stagnant economies, demographic explosions in underdeveloped areas and asymmetric conflicts represent challenges and threats for Europe. In this volume of Geopolitical Report, we decided to focus the attention on the current trends and future challenges of the region. Emanuel Pietrobon analysed the migration crisis suggesting that there are possibilities to resolve this problem if all the parties elaborate a strategy to stabilise the MENA region and support the development of the African continent. Matteo Mirti describes the Mediterranean region as a robust network of relations between cities which can contribute to rebuilding that common social and economic Pag. 5 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X fabric on which to rebuild an idea of freedom of the person who has a universal pro- jection. Therefore, the Mediterranean cities can play a fundamental role in the resurgent source of world civilisation in the geopolitical space. Antonciro Cozzi presented the new strategies for the energy market security in the Mediterranean area where natural gas deposits might represent for Italy the oppor- tunity to become a major energy hub for entire Europe thanks to the Italian strategic position in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea. We cannot talk about energy market without considering a key player as the Russian Federation whose strategy and interests in the Eastern Mediterranean region were described by Francesco Cirillo who believes that the Russian military support to Bashar al-Assad, the dialogues and diplomatic relations with Turkey and Israel and the Kremlin’s attempts to consolidate its soft power in Greece are part of a big strategy of expansions in the Mediterranean Sea. Ugo Maria Gaudino in his essay tried to bring into sharper focus how much sway France holds over its former Western and Central African colonies with the purpose of describing the future relations between Paris and the Françafrique where economic relations and projects shall follow military operations. Daniele Garofalo studied the geopolitical role of the Tuareg describing their his- torical, sociocultural and religious roots and analysing the impact of the different Tua- reg tribes on the North African and Sub-Saharan regions. Luca Fortini decided to highlight the recent new constitutional law in Israel, a country often discussed and criticised by international experts and human rights organ- isations and at the same time threatened by its neighbours and terrorist groups. In his study, Luca Fortini delineated the importance of the new constitutional law which es- tablishes Jerusalem the capital of Israel, promotes the Israeli settlements in the West Bank and downgrades the role of the Arabic language inside the country. Pag. 6 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Table of contents Introduction .................................................................................................................. 5 La crisi migratoria fra rischi e opportunità per l’Unione Europea .......................... 8 La città come fattore di ri-definizione dello spazio Mediterraneo........................... 35 The Mediterranean Sea: new strategies for the energy market security ................ 55 Interessi russi nel Mediterraneo Orientale ............................................................... 69 Françafrique, a reluctant hegemony? ....................................................................... 83 La questione Tuāreg ................................................................................................. 102 La nuova legge costituzionale israeliana e le future sfide interne ed esterne ....... 122 Pag. 7 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X La crisi migratoria fra rischi e opportunità per l’Unione Europea by Emanuel Pietrobon* Abstract in English The operations Triton and Themis have fuelled the human trafficking. The agreement between the European Union and Turkey for the closure of the Balkan route placed Brussels in a position of weakness and vulnerability compared to Ankara. The Italian attempts to reduce flows in the Central Mediterranean route are clashing against the continuing instability in Libya, and Spain is facing the gradual reopening of the Iberian route. Despite this, the migration crisis can be solved, but only through the adoption of a realistic and forward-looking approach aimed at the stabilization of the MENA region and the generation of growth and development in Africa. Keywords: migrant crisis, Mediterranean Sea, Libya, Africa, MENA region, Euro- pean Union, Italy Abstract in Italiano Le operazioni Triton e Themis hanno alimentato il traffico di esseri umani, l'accordo tra Unione Europea e Turchia per la chiusura della rotta balcanica ha posto Bruxelles in una posizione di debolezza e vulnerabilità rispetto ad Ankara, i tentativi italiani di ridurre i flussi nel Mediterraneo centrale sono contrastati dalla perdurante instabilità in Libia, e la Spagna sta affrontando la riapertura graduale della rotta iberica. Nono- stante questo, la crisi migratoria si può risolvere, ma solo attraverso l'adozione