CLIMATE CHANGE AND NUCLEAR POWER 2014 @ For more information, please contact: Planning and Economic Studies Section Department of Nuclear Energy International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna International Centre PO Box 100 1400 Vienna, Austria Tel: +43-1-2600-22776 Fax: +43-1-2600-29598 Email: Offi [email protected] Web: www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/ @ CLIMATE CHANGE AND NUCLEAR POWER 2014 The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency: AFGHANISTAN GHANA OMAN ALBANIA GREECE PAKISTAN ALGERIA GUATEMALA PALAU ANGOLA HAITI PANAMA ARGENTINA HOLY SEE PAPUA NEW GUINEA ARMENIA HONDURAS PARAGUAY AUSTRALIA HUNGARY PERU AUSTRIA ICELAND PHILIPPINES AZERBAIJAN INDIA POLAND BAHAMAS INDONESIA PORTUGAL BAHRAIN IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF QATAR BANGLADESH IRAQ REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BELARUS IRELAND ROMANIA BELGIUM ISRAEL RUSSIAN FEDERATION BELIZE ITALY RWANDA BENIN JAMAICA SAN MARINO BOLIVIA JAPAN SAUDI ARABIA BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA JORDAN SENEGAL BOTSWANA KAZAKHSTAN SERBIA BRAZIL KENYA SEYCHELLES BRUNEI DARUSSALAM KOREA, REPUBLIC OF SIERRA LEONE BULGARIA KUWAIT SINGAPORE BURKINA FASO KYRGYZSTAN SLOVAKIA BURUNDI LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC SLOVENIA CAMBODIA REPUBLIC SOUTH AFRICA CAMEROON LATVIA SPAIN CANADA LEBANON SRI LANKA CENTRAL AFRICAN LESOTHO SUDAN REPUBLIC LIBERIA SWAZILAND CHAD LIBYA SWEDEN CHILE LIECHTENSTEIN SWITZERLAND CHINA LITHUANIA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC COLOMBIA LUXEMBOURG TAJIKISTAN CONGO MADAGASCAR THAILAND COSTA RICA MALAWI THE FORMER YUGOSLAV CÔTE D’IVOIRE MALAYSIA REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA CROATIA MALI TOGO CUBA MALTA TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO CYPRUS MARSHALL ISLANDS TUNISIA CZECH REPUBLIC MAURITANIA, ISLAMIC TURKEY DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC REPUBLIC OF UGANDA OF THE CONGO MAURITIUS UKRAINE DENMARK MEXICO UNITED ARAB EMIRATES DOMINICA MONACO UNITED KINGDOM OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONGOLIA GREAT BRITAIN AND ECUADOR MONTENEGRO NORTHERN IRELAND EGYPT MOROCCO UNITED REPUBLIC EL SALVADOR MOZAMBIQUE OF TANZANIA ERITREA MYANMAR UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ESTONIA NAMIBIA URUGUAY ETHIOPIA NEPAL UZBEKISTAN FIJI NETHERLANDS VENEZUELA, BOLIVARIAN FINLAND NEW ZEALAND REPUBLIC OF FRANCE NICARAGUA VIET NAM GABON NIGER YEMEN GEORGIA NIGERIA ZAMBIA GERMANY NORWAY ZIMBABWE The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957. The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’. CLIMATE CHANGE AND NUCLEAR POWER 2014 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA, 2014 COPYRIGHT NOTICE All IAEA scientific and technical publications are protected by the terms of the Universal Copyright Convention as adopted in 1952 (Berne) and as revised in 1972 (Paris). The copyright has since been extended by the World Intellectual Property Organization (Geneva) to include electronic and virtual intellectual property. Permission to use whole or parts of texts contained in IAEA publications in printed or electronic form must be obtained and is usually subject to royalty agreements. Proposals for non-commercial reproductions and translations are welcomed and considered on a case-by-case basis. 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The copyright has since been extended by the World Intellectual greenhouse gas emissions while delivering energy in the increasingly large Property Organization (Geneva) to include electronic and virtual intellectual quantities needed for growing populations and socioeconomic development. property. Permission to use whole or parts of texts contained in IAEA publications Nuclear power plants produce virtually no greenhouse gas emissions or air in printed or electronic form must be obtained and is usually subject to royalty pollutants during their operation and only very low emissions over their entire life agreements. Proposals for non-commercial reproductions and translations are cycle. Nuclear power fosters energy supply security and industrial development welcomed and considered on a case-by-case basis. Enquiries should be addressed by providing electricity reliably at stable and foreseeable prices. to the IAEA Publishing Section at: The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 caused deep public anxiety and raised fundamental questions about the future of Marketing and Sales Unit, Publishing Section nuclear energy throughout the world. It was a wake-up call for everyone involved International Atomic Energy Agency in nuclear power — a reminder that safety can never be taken for granted. Yet, Vienna International Centre more than three years after the accident, it is clear that nuclear energy will remain PO Box 100 an important option for many countries. Its advantages in terms of climate change 1400 Vienna, Austria mitigation are an important reason why many countries intend to introduce fax: +43 1 2600 29302 nuclear power in the coming decades, or to expand existing programmes. All tel.: +43 1 2600 22417 countries have the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, as well email: [email protected] as the responsibility to do so safely and securely. http://www.iaea.org/books The IAEA provides assistance and information to countries that wish to introduce nuclear power. It also provides information for broader audiences engaged in energy, environmental and economic policy making. This report provides a comprehensive review of the potential role of nuclear power in mitigating global climate change and its contribution to other development and environmental challenges. The report also examines broader issues relevant to the climate change–nuclear energy nexus, such as costs, investments, financing, safety, waste management and non-proliferation. Recent developments in resource supply, changes in energy markets and technological developments are also presented. This edition has been substantially amended since the 2013 report. Most sections have been completely revised on the basis of new scientific information, new analyses, and technical reports and other publications that have become available in 2014. Sections on topics where the available information has not substantially changed within the past year have been omitted and will be updated if necessary in future editions. Short summaries of these sections are provided in the Appendix, but interested readers are referred to the 2013 edition for information on nuclear energy applications beyond the power sector, the thorium option, fast reactors and fusion. New sections explore emerging issues that will affect the relationship between climate change and nuclear power in the coming decades. EDITORIAL NOTE This report does not address questions of responsibility, legal or otherwise, for acts or omissions on the part of any person. Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of information contained in this publication, neither the IAEA nor its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from its use. The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. The authors are responsible for having obtained the necessary permission for the IAEA to reproduce, translate or use material from sources already protected by copyrights. Material prepared by authors who are in contractual relation with governments is copyrighted by the IAEA, as publisher, only to the extent permitted by the appropriate national regulations. This publication has been prepared from the original material as submitted by the authors. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the IAEA, the governments of the nominating Member States or the nominating organizations. The IAEA has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third party Internet web sites referred to in this book and does not guarantee that any content on such web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. CONTENTS SUMMARY ................................................. 1 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................ 5 2. THE NEED FOR NUCLEAR POWER ....................... 7 2.1. The climate change challenge ........................... 7 2.2. The global energy challenge ............................ 9 2.3. Nuclear power: a low carbon technology .................. 13 2.4. Contribution to avoided GHG emissions .................. 18 2.5.