FALL FORUM 2014 NMS MANAGEMENT PRESENTS The Investment Management Forum for Endowments & Foundations Mandarin Oriental Washington, D.C. September 28 – October 1, 2014 Fall Forum Faculty FORUM HOST FEATURED SPEAKERS SPEAKER FACULTY Nancy M. Szigethy Christopher Hohn Teresa C. Barger Founder Founder, Managing Partner & Senior Managing Director NMS Management, Inc. Portfolio Manager Cartica Management, LLC The Children’s Investment Fund FORUM CHAIRMEN Management (UK) LLP (TCI) John A. Barker Managing Director Sally M. Dungan Alan B. Krueger The Kresge Foundation Chief Investment Officer Bendheim Professor of Economics and Tu f t s Un i ve r s i t y Public Affairs Mark Baumgartner Princeton University Chief Investment Officer Charles J. Pippin Former Chairman of the President’s Institute for Advanced Study Senior Vice President & Chief Council of Economic Advisers Investment Officer Kurt Billick and Cabinet Member Pepperdine University Founder & Chief Investment Officer John Paulson Bocage Capital, LLC Paula J. Volent President Amy L. Chen Senior Vice President for Investments Paulson & Co. Inc. Bowdoin College Chief Investment Officer General (Ret.) David H. Petraeus Smithsonian Institution Chairman Jeremy T. Crigler KKR Global Institute Chief Investment Officer Larry Robbins Tu l a n e Un i ve r s i t y Founder, Portfolio Manager & CEO Hurley Doddy Glenview Capital Management Managing Director, Founding Partner Martin Wolf & Co-CEO Associate Editor & Chief Economics Emerging Capital Partners (ECP) Commentator Daniel W. Drezner Financial Times, London Professor of International Politics Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tu f t s Un i ve r s i t y Ellen J. Ellison Chief Investment Officer University of Illinois Foundation 2 James Fallows Chun W. Lai John C. Pomeroy, Jr. National Correspondent Deputy Chief Investment Officer Chief Investment Officer / The Atlantic The Rockefeller Foundation Chief Risk Officer The Pennsylvania State University Stuart C. Fiertz William D. Lee President & Co-Founder Chief Investment Officer & Michael R. Reist Cheyne Capital Management (UK) LLP Vice President Chief Investment Officer Rana Foroohar Foundation and Pension Investments Phillips Academy Columnist & Kaiser Permanente Assistant Managing Editor Eugene Rumer Preston Massey TIME Director & Senior Associate, Co-Founder & Managing Member Global Economic Analyst Russia and Eurasia Program CNN Congruent Investment Partners, LLC Carnegie Endowment for Neil Garfinkel Jason Matz International Peace Founding Partner Chief Investment Officer Stephen M. Siderow Francisco Partners Carleton College Co-Founder, Managing Partner Jacob Gottlieb John Mauldin & Co-President Managing Partner & Chairman BlueMountain Capital Management Chief Investment Officer Mauldin Economics Visium Asset Management, LP LLC Bart McDade Jonathan D. Hook Jeffrey Slocum Chief Investment Officer Managing Partner & Co-Founder President The Harry & Jeanette Weinberg River Birch Capital, LLC Jeffrey Slocum & Associates, Inc. Foundation, Inc. Afshin Molavi Tom Speechley Senior Global Advisor Jerome R. Judd Partner Vice President, Treasury Oxford Analytica The Abraaj Group Mercy Health Tendai Musikavanhu Warren M. Stock David Kelly Chief Executive Officer Chief Global Strategist & Co-Founder Director, Public Investments J.P. Morgan Asset Management Old Mutual Global Index Trackers Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Lawrence E. Kochard Michael E. Novogratz Antoine W. van Agtmael Chief Executive Officer / Principal & Director Senior Adviser Chief Investment Officer Garten Rothkopf University of Virginia Investment Fortress Investment Group LLC Management Company Scott M. Pittman Danny Yong Scott Kupor Senior Vice President & Founding Partner & Managing Partner Chief Investment Officer Chief Investment Officer Andreessen Horowitz The Mount Sinai Medical Center Dymon Asia Capital 3 Schedule Sunday, September 28, 2014 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm Early registration will be held in the Hotel Lobby Early Registration 5:30 pm Join us for a welcome reception as we kick off the 2014 Fall Forum! This evening is a Opening Reception chance for members to come together before the start of sessions in the morning. Monday, September 29, 2014 7:30 am Forum Registration and Continental Breakfast 8:15 am Welcome & Introductions Nancy M. Szigethy, NMS Management, Inc. Remarks from the Sally M. Dungan, Tufts University Forum Chairmen Charles J. Pippin, Pepperdine University Paula J. Volent, Bowdoin College 8:30 am This opening address will examine the state of the European economy and explore how Recovery or Relapse? Prospects the return of political risk may impact Europe, the financial markets and investing for the European Economy & the accordingly. This special presentation will discuss the expected growth of the European Implications for Investors economy in the medium term, and identify the obstacles to achieving a faster recovery in the Eurozone. To what extent are various factors influencing the economic environment including: low inflation, internal imbalances, an overly strong Euro, public and private debt overhangs, and a fragile financial system, among others? What are the largest down- side risks to the Eurozone and what are the prospects for the European “periphery”? The session will also discuss how divergent investors might expect performance to be across European countries. Where might investors expect strong performance to emerge given the nature of risks? To what extent might the state of various European economies influ- ence the performance of companies in Europe? The presentation will be approximately 40 minutes with the balance of time dedicated to Q&A with members. Speaker: Martin Wolf, Financial Times, London 4 Schedule Monday, September 29, 2014 9:30 am Topic: Current Views on the Macro Economic Environment Keynote Address: Current Views on the Macro Economic Speaker: Michael E. Novogratz, Fortress Investment Group LLC Environment 10:15 am Break 10:45 am This session will address how the venture capital landscape is evolving, including what The Evolution of the Venture sectors are likely to experience growth going forward. How technology is evolving and Capital Industry: Trends & how innovations in data analytics and other platforms in technology will impact business- Opportunities es and individual consumers over the next 5-10 years will also be explored. What emerg- ing trends will impact value-creation and growth going forward? Where are we in the innovation cycle? Our distinguished panelists will share their insights as highly successful venture capitalists, with an emphasis on where the sector is headed going forward, and their approach and process in investing in technology. In addition, a range of issues rele- vant to investors will be discussed including return expectations, valuation levels, and deal-sourcing among others. Conducted by: Paula J. Volent, Bowdoin College Discussants: Neil Garfinkel, Francisco Partners Scott Kupor, Andreessen Horowitz 11:30 am Using insights from his experience as President Obama’s Chief Economist, this presenta- What is the Legacy of the Great tion will discuss the lingering damage from the Great Recession, particularly as it relates Recession for the U.S. and the to economic growth, housing markets and the labor market. Where is the economy head- Economy in 2014 and Beyond? ed in the near term and longer run? Will long-term unemployment remain high, or con- tinue to edge down? The presentation will also focus on whether the long-term unem- ployed exert much pressure on inflation and wages, and the implications for monetary policy and interest rates as it relates to investors. Speaker: Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University 12:30 pm Luncheon 5 Schedule Monday, September 29, 2014 1:30 pm Topic: Event Opportunities in Consolidating Industries Keynote Address: Event Opportunities in Speaker: John Paulson, Paulson & Co. Inc. Consolidating Industries 2:15 pm In the current environment many endowments and foundations are facing a dilemma as it Emerging Markets: Weighing the relates to their portfolio allocations to emerging markets. Against a backdrop where many Relative Merits of Investing in institutions are over-weighted to EM, valuations are attractive for investment officers will- Today’s Markets ing to allocate more capital to these geographies. How should investors consider this important component of their portfolio? Is it an attractive time to invest? Uncertainty about economic growth rates, the continued viability of the emerging markets consump- tion model, and concerns about the economic path of China raise questions for the dis- cerning investor. How might investors weigh the decreased relative valuations in emerging markets against the perception of greater risk and lower growth rates relative to developed markets? What countries, asset classes and strategies may deliver returns to allocators of capital? Will there be higher returns in public or private markets? Our panel of EM experts will assist members in discerning market dynamics and offer insights that may inform the investment decision-making process. Conducted by: Lawrence E. Kochard, University of Virginia Investment Management Company Discussants: Teresa C. Barger, Cartica Management, LLC Tom Speechley, The Abraaj Group Antoine W. van Agtmael, Garten Rothkopf 3:00 pm Break 3:30 pm Many investors believe that Africa could now be poised to deliver excellent risk-adjusted Investing in Africa: Emerging in returns to investors. This session will focus on the current opportunity-set, the most