Politics and Governance Open Access Journal | ISSN: 2183-2463 Volume 4, Issue 3 (2016) Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement Editors Jon Hovi and Tora Skodvin Politics and Governance, 2016, Volume 4, Issue 3 Thematic Issue: Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement Published by Cogitatio Press Rua Fialho de Almeida 14, 2º Esq., 1070-129 Lisbon Portugal Academic Editors Jon Hovi, University of Oslo, Norway Tora Skodvin, University of Oslo, Norway Editors-in-Chief Amelia Hadfield, Canterbury Christ Church University, UK Andrej J. Zwitter, University of Groningen, The Netherlands Available online at: www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance This issue is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY). Articles may be reproduced provided that credit is given to the original and Politics and Governance is acknowledged as the original venue of publication. Table of Contents Editorial to the Issue on Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement Jon Hovi and Tora Skodvin 111-114 Conference Diplomacy: The Making of the Paris Agreement Aslak Brun 115-123 The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? Oran R. Young 124-132 What the Framework Convention on Climate Change Teaches Us About Cooperation on Climate Change David G. Victor 133-141 Paris: Beyond the Climate Dead End through Pledge and Review? Robert O. Keohane and Michael Oppenheimer 142-151 Unilateral or Reciprocal Climate Policy? Experimental Evidence from China Thomas Bernauer, Liang Dong, Liam F. McGrath, Irina Shaymerdenova and Haibin Zhang 152-171 Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations Detlef F. Sprinz, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Steffen Kallbekken, Frans Stokman, Håkon Sælen and Robert Thomson 172-187 The Paris Agreement: Consequences for the EU and Carbon Markets? Steinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjærseth, Torbjørg Jevnaker and Jørgen Wettestad 188-196 From Paris to the End of Oil Dag Harald Claes and Helge Hveem 197-208 The Paris Agreement: Short-Term and Long-Term Effectiveness Guri Bang, Jon Hovi and Tora Skodvin 209-218 The Paris Climate Agreement and the Three Largest Emitters: China, the United States, and the European Union Miranda A. Schreurs 219-223 Politics and Governance (ISSN: 2183-2463) 2016, Volume 4, Issue 3, Pages 111-114 doi: 10.17645/pag.v4i3.721 Editorial Editorial to the Issue on Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement Jon Hovi and Tora Skodvin * Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, 0317 Oslo, Norway; E-Mails: [email protected] (J.H.), [email protected] (T.S.) * Corresponding author Submitted: 9 August 2016 | Published: 8 September 2016 Abstract This thematic issue of Politics and Governance serves as a Festschrift in honor of Professor Dr. Philos. Arild Underdal on his 70th birthday. In this editorial, the guest editors summarize a few of Professor Underdal’s many academic merits and achievements. They also provide a synopsis of each of the ten contributions to the Festschrift, which focuses on climate governance in general and the 2015 Paris Agreement in particular. Keywords Arild Underdal; climate governance; Festschrift; the Paris Agreement Issue This editorial is part of the issue “Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement”, edited by Jon Hovi and Tora Skodvin (University of Oslo, Norway). © 2016 by the authors; licensee Cogitatio (Lisbon, Portugal). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribu- tion 4.0 International License (CC BY). Professor Dr. Philos. Arild Underdal is a remarkable ac- institutions, Arild has inspired and greatly influenced a ademic. Not only is he an excellent political science large number of younger colleagues, including the scholar, he is also a very skillful administrator. In addi- guest editors and several other contributors to this tion, Arild is a cherished teacher, supervisor, colleague, volume. He has done so through his excellent teaching and collaborating partner. He has contributed to the and supervision, as well as through his widely cited recruitment of a number of skilled master and PhD scholarly work. Some of this scholarly work has been students, included them in his wide academic network, co-authored with younger Oslo-based colleagues, with inspired them to embark on an academic career, and internationally renowned scholars from Arild’s impres- thus still plays a major role in the continuous develop- sive international network, or—on occasion—both. ment of the IR and climate-change social-science re- Several of these internationally renowned scholars are search communities in the Oslo area. This thematic is- also contributors to this volume and many others have sue of Politics and Governance is a Festschrift to our served as anonymous reviewers. friend and colleague, Arild Underdal, to honor him on Arild’s administrative skills were acknowledged his 70th birthday. when he first served as prorector (1993–1995) and Based in the Oslo region, Arild has had an astonish- then as rector (2002–2006) of the University of Oslo ing career both as a scholar and administrator. He was (UiO). Many other academic institutions in Norway and awarded his doctoral degree in 1982 and became a full abroad have sought his advice, as has also the Norwe- professor at the Department of Political Science, Uni- gian government. In 2006, he was awarded the high- versity of Oslo, in 1988. He has also been affiliated with ranking distinction of Commander of the Royal Order other institutions in the Oslo region, including the BI of St. Olav. Norwegian Business School, the Fridtjof Nansen Insti- Important instruments for developing Arild’s tute (FNI), and the Centre for International Climate and scholarly network domestically and internationally Environmental Research—Oslo (CICERO). At all of these have been a set of large-scale research projects, often Politics and Governance, 2016, Volume 4, Issue 3, Pages 111-114 111 funded by the Research Council of Norway. The most learnt as their efforts have co-evolved over the past recent—and one of the most important—of these two decades. He finds that until Paris, very few lessons projects has been Strategic Challenges in Internation- offered by scholars have had much influence on cli- al Climate and Energy Policy (CICEP), a centre for en- mate change negotiations. Moreover, cooperation vironmentally friendly energy. This centre is located theory and insights from case studies largely explain at CICERO, while the FNI and the Department of Polit- why those two decades achieved little progress. How- ical Science, UiO, serve as research partners. Arild ever, he also finds that the Paris agreement much bet- lead the application process and also served as ter reflects insights from scholars about how to build CICEP’s director for the first two and a half years of its effective international environmental institutions. He existence. concludes that there is nevertheless no guarantee that Cooperating with Arild is very inspiring and enjoya- Paris will eventually prove successful. ble; however, it is also slightly depressing. It is enjoya- Robert O. Keohane and Michael Oppenheimer ble because of his modest, friendly and patient ap- (2016) offer a preliminary assessment of the achieve- pearance, because he invariably delivers top-quality ments of the Paris negotiations and of the conditions work, and because he is always careful to keep dead- under which the Paris Agreement might generate poli- lines. It is slightly depressing because no matter how cies and actions that can significantly influence global hard you work, he works even harder. The following climate change. Having carefully reviewed the pledge anecdote may illustrate the point. During his period as and review system instituted at Paris, the authors ana- rector at UiO, the local student newspaper, Universitas, lyze post-Paris climate politics as a strategic game. asked him to give an interview. To avoid wasting time, They conclude that the Paris Agreement merely creates Arild requested that the interview be conducted while an opening for effective action on climate change. To he had breakfast. Having granted Arild’s wish, the jour- make Paris work, political action by domestic and nalist was astonished to learn that Arild had breakfast transnational organized groups and a willingness to pay at 4am! The interview reveals that a typical work day the economic price are required. for Arild lasts 12 to 15 hours—including Saturdays and Thomas Bernauer, Liang Dong, Liam Francis Sundays. Between Christmas and New Year’s Eve he McGrath, Irina Shaymerdenova and Haibin Zhang works only 10–12 hours a day, which Arild characteriz- (2016) consider the prospects for deep emissions re- es as “pure relaxation”.1 ductions in China—the world’s biggest emitter of During the last couple of decades, climate change greenhouse gases—based on the Paris agreement’s in- has been a major area of research for Arild. Therefore, a ternationally coordinated and monitored unilateralism. natural focus of this Festschrift is climate governance in In particular, they examine how Chinese citizens view general and the 2015 Paris climate change agreement in the shift in climate policy from the reciprocal approach particular. The festschrift includes 10 contributions. characteristic of Kyoto to the unilateralist approach in- Norway’s lead climate negotiator Aslak Brun (2016) herent in Paris. Based on a survey experiment, the au- provides an insider’s account of the Paris negotiations thors find forceful and robust public support for unilat- and the resulting agreement. He argues that the shift eral and non-reciprocal Chinese climate policy. Thus, from a top-down to a bottom-up approach has helped their results suggest that China’s government can rely spur participation, that the Paris agreement has estab- on solid public support should it want to move forward lished a new and clearer “direction of travel”, and that with ambitious (i.e., costly) emissions reductions. its provisions may be expected to generate increased Detlef Sprinz, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Steffen national mitigation efforts over time.