Fostering technologies for sustainability: Improving Strategic Niche Management as a guide for action using a case study of wind power in Australia A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Gerard P. Healey Bachelor of Engineering School of Aerospace, Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering Science, Engineering and Technology Portfolio RMIT University February 2008 i Declaration I, Gerard P Healey, declare that this thesis is my own work unless otherwise referenced or acknowledged. The research has been undertaken since my commencement in the PhD program in accordance with the relevant ethics procedures and I have not submitted the research for any other academic award. Any editorial work has been duly acknowledged. Gerard P Healey February 2008 ii Acknowledgements There are many people who deserve to share in this PhD, because without them it would not have been possible. First and foremost are my supervisors, Andrea Bunting and John Andrews. Without their patience, constructive comments and ongoing support over the past five years, this thesis would be in far worse shape and I would not be the researcher that I am now. I would like to thank all of those who spoke to me as part of this research at conferences, workshops, and over coffee. In particular I would like to thank those people who generously gave up time for formal interviews – Karl Mallon, Rick Maddox, Grant Flynn, Megan Wheatley, Bruce Cameron, and Sarea Coates – and for informal chats, including Craig Wilson, Peter Cowling, Hugh Outhred, Iain MacGill, Craig Oakeshott, David Mercer, Tim Le Roy, and Tim Farrell. I also must thank those at the Technische Universiteit Eindhoven who gave me much needed guidance and criticism during my visit in 2004, including Rob Raven, Frank Geels, Geert Verbong, Johan Schot, Mattijs Taanman, and Deborah Tappi. I would also like to thank my friends and family who provided much needed distraction from the frustrations of research, particularly Pat, Stef, Benny, Rosalba, Darryl, Derek, Alan and Matt. My mother, Jan Healey, and Aunty, Gill Clarke, deserve particular thanks for proof reading a number of chapters. Finally, but by no means least, I want to thank my partner, Rilla Maxton, whose love and support has kept me sane. iii Publications related to this research Healey, G. and Bunting, A. 2002, 'Overcoming barriers to wind power diffusion: The Method of Strategic Niche Management', Proceedings of Solar Harvest, The Australia & New Zealand Solar Energy Society, Newcastle, Australia, pp.8. Healey, G. 2003, 'An Introduction to the greenhouse gas benefits of wind power in the National Electricity Market', Proceedings of Destination Renewables, The Australia & New Zealand Solar Energy Society, Melbourne, Australia, pp.276 - 286. Healey, G. 2004, 'Fostering Technologies for Sustainability: Learning from the Case of Wind Power in Australia', Australian Journal of Emerging Technologies and Society, 2, 2, 1 - 17. Bunting, A. and Healey, G. 2005, 'Australian’s Mandatory Renewable Energy Target: Driver of Institutional Change?' paper presented to World Renewable Energy Congress, Aberdeen, May 22 - 27 Healey, G. and Bunting, A., 2008, Wind Power in Australia: Overcoming Technological and Institutional Barriers, Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, 28, 2, 115 - 127. iv Abbreviations AAC Australian Aluminium Council ACCC Australian Competition and Consumer Commission ACNT Australian Council of National Trusts AEA Australian EcoGeneration Association AGO Australian Greenhouse Office AIGN Australian Industry Greenhouse Network APIC Australian Paper Industry Council ASX Australian Stock Exchange AusWEA Australian Wind Energy Association BCSE Business Council for Sustainable Energy CoAG Council of Australian Governments CRA Charles Rivers Associates DITR Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources (Federal) DOI Department of Infrastructure (Victoria) DSE Department of Sustainability and Environment (Victoria) EEC Energy Equity Corporation EIMWG Energy Intensive Manufacturing Working Group ERAA Energy Retailers Association of Australia ERD Environment, Resources and Development Committee (South Australia) ESCOSA Essential Services Commission of South Australia ESIPC Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council (South Australia) FCAS Frequency Control Ancillary Services IEA International Energy Agency LETAG Low Emissions Technical Advisory Group MCE Ministerial Council on Energy MLM Multi-Level Model v MMA Mclennan Magasanik Associates MRET Mandatory Renewable Energy Target NECA National Electricity Code Administrator NEMMCO National Electricity Market Management Company NGF National Generators Forum NRET New South Wales Renewable Energy Target NSW New South Wales OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ORER Office of the Renewable Energy Regulator PCG Prom Coast Guardians PWEP Portland Wind Energy Project RTWG Renewables Target Working Group SA South Australia SEAV Sustainable Energy Authority Victoria SEDA Sustainable Energy Development Authority (NSW) SEIAA Sustainable Energy Industries Association of Australia SNM Strategic Niche Management TVCG Tarwin Valley Coastal Guardians VCAT Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal VRET Victorian Renewable Energy Target WEPWG Wind Energy Policy Working Group WETAG Wind Energy Technical Advisory Group vi Table of Contents Abstract.............................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction............................................................................................................... 4 1.0 Context and research aim.................................................................................... 4 1.1 Research design.................................................................................................. 6 1.1.1 Research questions and thesis aim.........................................................6 1.1.2 Principles for case study research..........................................................7 1.1.3 Empirical research strategy....................................................................9 1.2 SNM: Fostering socio-technical change ........................................................... 11 1.2.1 Background..........................................................................................11 1.2.2 Conceptual framework.........................................................................12 1.2.3 Guide for experimenting with new technology ...................................16 1.2.4 Strengths of SNM................................................................................18 1.2.5 Weaknesses in SNM as a guide for action...........................................19 1.3 An opportunity for learning: Wind power in Australia 1997 – 2007 ............... 22 1.4 Thesis structure................................................................................................. 27 2 Understanding socio-technical change.................................................................. 29 2.0 Introduction....................................................................................................... 29 2.1 Momentum in socio-technical regimes............................................................. 29 2.1.1 Stability................................................................................................30 2.1.2 Momentum...........................................................................................31 2.1.3 Lock-in.................................................................................................34 2.1.4 Discussion and summary .....................................................................37 2.2 Pressure for change........................................................................................... 37 2.2.1 Disrupting socio-technical regimes......................................................38 2.2.2 Responding to disruption .....................................................................38 2.2.3 Discussion and Summary.....................................................................41 2.3 Socio-technical transitions................................................................................ 42 2.3.1 A conceptual model of socio-technical transitions ..............................42 2.3.2 Development paths for new technology ..............................................44 2.3.3 Discussion and summary .....................................................................45 2.4 Actors in niche development ............................................................................ 46 vii 2.4.1 The role of actors .................................................................................46 2.4.2 Consensus and disagreement ...............................................................52 2.4.3 Discussion and Summary.....................................................................59 2.5 Understanding positive feedbacks .................................................................... 59 2.6 Stimulating positive feedbacks......................................................................... 67 2.7 Challenges to stimulating positive feedbacks................................................... 70 2.8 Conclusions....................................................................................................... 80 3 Industry development............................................................................................