UNIVE RSI T Y OF COPE NHAGEN FACULT Y OF S C IENCE CENTER FOR M A CROECOL OGY, EVOLUT ION A ND CLIMAT E PhD thesis Jonas Geldmann Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for maintaining biodiversity, securing habitats, and reducing threats Academic advisor: Professor Neil D. Burgess Submitted: August 2013 UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN FACULTY OF SCIENCE CENTER FOR MACROECOLOGY, EVOLUTION AND CLIMATE PhD thesis Jonas Geldmann Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for maintaining biodiversity, securing habitats, and reducing threats Academic advisor: Professor Neil D. Burgess This thesis has been submitted august 2013 to the PhD School of The Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen Institutnavn: Biologisk Institut (Center for Makroøkologi, Evolution og Klima) Name of department: Department of Biology (Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate) Author: Jonas Geldmann Titel og evt. undertitel: Beskyttede områders evne til at bevare landskaber og biodiversitet samt reducere menneskelig trusler Title / Subtitle: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Protected Areas for maintaining Biodiversity, securing habitats, and reducing threats Subject description: This PhD. is part of the conservation theme at the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate (CMEC). The main focus has been to understand how terrestrial protected areas help protect nature and reduce human impact by evaluating changes in state or pressure as a consequence of protected areas as a conservation response. Academic advisor: Professor Neil D. Burgess, Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, UNEP World Centre for Monitoring of Conservation, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and World Wildlife Fund, USA. External advisor: Dr. Lauren Coad, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Submitted: August 2013 Grade: PhD thesis Cover photo: elephant: wallcloud. rhino: Brent Stirton, 4 Preface This thesis is the product of a three year PhD project at the faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, based at the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate (CMEC). The thesis has been supervised by Professor Neil D. Burgess, but also Dr. Lauren Coad, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom has functioned as an external supervisor though not officially affiliated with the project. While the base has been the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate all work has involved international collaborators of which I have been able to spend time at many of their institutions. In total I have had 11 different office spaces between; The University of Copenhagen, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom, University of Oxford, United Kingdom, the United Nations Environmental Programme’s World Centre for Monitoring Conservation (UNEP-WCMC), and the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), United Kingdom. In total I have spent a little less than a year between Cambridge, Oxford and London including a four month stay at ZSL. Besides these institutions, this thesis has also been part of the IUCN WCPA/SSC joint taskforce on Biodiversity and Protected Areas. In this group we have had many and very fruitful workshops and meeting in, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom, and United States of America. The thesis consists of two parts. First, a synopsis giving the background, overview, objectives, main findings of the thesis, and some perspectives. The second consist of six research chapters on the effectiveness of protected areas using different approaches and covering ‘state’, ‘pressure’, and ‘response’. Uniting them is the use of temporal data to explore the performance of protected areas. Three of the chapters are either published or accepted for publication. The remaining three are written as scientific research papers. Besides the included research chapters I have been heavily involved in another research project not at the stage to be included in the final PhD. Through the IUCN WCPA/SSC taskforce I have also been involved in a report for the Global Environmental Facility on their protected areas as well as contributed to the 2012 Protected Planet report. While being a PhD student I have also acted as co-supervisor on two master theses, two bachelor projects as well as assisted with the teaching in i) International Nature Conservation (graduate level), ii) Experimental design and applied statistics (graduate level), and iii) organismal diversity (undergraduate level), Jonas Geldmann Copenhagen, Denmark, August 2013 5 6 Table of Contents Acknowledgement ................................................................................................................. 9 Summary ............................................................................................................................. 11 Sammenfatning ................................................................................................................... 13 Synopsis ............................................................................................................................... 15 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 15 Evaluating protected area effectiveness ..................................................................... 18 Objectives ................................................................................................................... 26 Main findings and perspectives .................................................................................. 27 References .................................................................................................................. 30 Evidence of protected area effectiveness .......................................................................... 39 Abstract ....................................................................................................................... 41 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 41 Methods ...................................................................................................................... 42 Results ........................................................................................................................ 42 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 46 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 47 References .................................................................................................................. 47 Commonalities and complementarities in Management and Evaluations .................... 51 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 54 Concepts and terminology .......................................................................................... 55 Approaches to Conservation M&E ............................................................................. 56 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 62 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 68 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 68 Literature cited ............................................................................................................ 68 Management effectiveness and global commitments ...................................................... 73 Abstract ....................................................................................................................... 75 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 75 Methods ...................................................................................................................... 77 Results ........................................................................................................................ 79 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 80 References .................................................................................................................. 84 Changes in Management Effectiveness ............................................................................ 87 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 90 Methods ...................................................................................................................... 91 Results ........................................................................................................................ 93 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 96 7 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 99 References .................................................................................................................. 99 Protected Areas ability to reduce pressure .................................................................... 103 Abstract ....................................................................................................................