GO RAIL OPTIONS BENEFITS CASE ASSESSMENT June 2010 GO Rail Option Benefits Case Assessment Final Report June 2010 Prepared for: Prepared by: In Association with: Metrolinx Halcrow Consulting Inc Delcan Corporation 20 Bay Street, Suite 901 207 Queen’s Quay W Suite 550 625 Cochrane Drive, Suite 500 Toronto ON M5J 2N8 Toronto, ON M5J 1A7 Markham, ON L3R 9R9 www.delcan.com +1 416 363 8123 www.halcrow.com Hatch Mott MacDonald 2800 Speakman Drive Mississauga, ON L5K 2R7 www.hatchmott.com GO Rail Options Benefits Case Assessment Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................I 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 1.1 Introduction to Study................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Introduction to Report .............................................................................................................................2 2 Planning Context ...........................................................................................................3 2.1 Regional Transport Plan ...........................................................................................................................3 2.2 GO 2020......................................................................................................................................................4 2.2.1 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe..............................................................................................4 2.3 Land Use Projections for the Greater Golden Horseshoe .................................................................6 3 Options Assessed .........................................................................................................7 3.1 Current Services and Ridership ...............................................................................................................7 3.2 Development of Options .........................................................................................................................8 4 Approach to Assessment of Options....................................................................... 11 4.1 Metrolinx BCA Template.......................................................................................................................11 4.2 Capital Costs .............................................................................................................................................11 4.3 Operating and Maintenance Costs........................................................................................................12 4.4 Transport Modelling................................................................................................................................12 4.5 Transportation User Benefits.................................................................................................................14 4.5.1 Factoring for Different Ridership Forecasts ...................................................................................................14 4.6 Financial Account....................................................................................................................................15 4.7 Environmental Impacts ..........................................................................................................................15 4.8 Economic Impacts...................................................................................................................................15 4.9 Land Value Changes................................................................................................................................16 4.10 Social Community Impacts ....................................................................................................................19 5 Barrie (Allandale) Corridor.........................................................................................20 5.1 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................20 i GO Rail Options Benefits Case Assessment 5.2 Services Assessed .....................................................................................................................................20 5.3 Engineering Requirements .....................................................................................................................22 5.3.1 Infrastructure................................................................................................................................................22 5.3.2 Rolling Stock................................................................................................................................................26 5.4 Findings.....................................................................................................................................................27 5.4.1 Ridership......................................................................................................................................................27 5.5 Summary of Assessment.........................................................................................................................28 5.5.1 Off-Peak ......................................................................................................................................................29 5.5.2 Transportation User Benefits ........................................................................................................................30 5.5.3 Financial Account ........................................................................................................................................30 5.5.4 Environmental Impacts.................................................................................................................................31 5.5.5 Economic Impacts.........................................................................................................................................31 5.5.6 Social Community Impacts ...........................................................................................................................32 6 Lakeshore East (Bowmanville) Corridor .................................................................32 6.1 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................32 6.2 Services Assessed .....................................................................................................................................33 6.3 Engineering Requirements .....................................................................................................................34 6.3.1 Infrastructure................................................................................................................................................34 6.3.2 Rolling Stock................................................................................................................................................36 6.4 Findings.....................................................................................................................................................37 6.4.1 Ridership......................................................................................................................................................37 6.4.2 Summary of Assessment ...............................................................................................................................38 6.4.3 Off-Peak ......................................................................................................................................................39 6.4.4 Transportation User Benefits ........................................................................................................................40 6.4.5 Financial Account ........................................................................................................................................40 6.4.6 Environmental Impacts.................................................................................................................................41 6.4.7 Other Economic Impacts...............................................................................................................................41 6.4.8 Social Community Impacts ...........................................................................................................................42 7 Milton Corridor .............................................................................................................42 7.1 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................42 7.2 Services Assessed .....................................................................................................................................42 7.3 Engineering Requirements .....................................................................................................................44 7.3.1 Infrastructure................................................................................................................................................44 7.3.2 Rolling Stock................................................................................................................................................45