Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2005 Using the Superensemble Method to Improve Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Mark Rickman Jordan II Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES USING THE SUPERENSEMBLE METHOD TO IMPROVE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING By MARK RICKMAN JORDAN II A Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree Awarded: Fall Semester, 2005 The members of the Committee approve the Thesis of Mark Jordan defended on 1 September 2005. _________________________________ T.N. Krishnamurti Professor Directing Thesis _________________________________ Carol Anne Clayson Committee Member _________________________________ Peter S. Ray Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would first like to thank my major professor, Dr. T.N. Krishnamurti, for all of his help through this process and for his unending encouragement and patience. Furthermore, I would like to thank Dr. Carol Anne Clayson and Dr. Peter Ray for their advice and assistance throughout this process. Thank you Brian Mackey and Dr. Vijay Tallapragada for all of your help and wonderful suggestions during this project. Others who deserve commendation for their assistance during the past year include Mrinal Biswas, Arindam Chakraborty, Akhilesh Mishra, Lydia Stefanova, Donald van Dyke, and Lawrence Pologne. Thank you Bill Walsh for all of your support, advice, and encouragement over the years, and thank you Mike and Beth Rice for your love and support during my entire educational career. Finally, I would like to thank my parents and the rest of my family, for without all of you, I would not be where I am today. This research was funded by NOAA Subcontract Grant 120000586-09 and by ACS Defense Grant ACSD-04-036. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................. ix ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS........................................................................... x ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................... xi 1. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................1 2. SUPERENSEMBLE METHODOLOGY........................................................................4 2.1 History of Superensemble..................................................................................4 2.2 Superensemble Description ...............................................................................5 2.3 Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Superensemble ....................................................6 2.4 Member Models.................................................................................................8 3. AVERAGE EASTERN PACIFIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OVERVIEW OF 2004 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON .......................................................12 3.1 Overview..........................................................................................................12 3.2 Eastern Pacific Synoptic Pattern......................................................................12 3.3 2004 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season ...........................................................20 4. RESULTS ......................................................................................................................23 4.1 Overview..........................................................................................................23 4.2 General Eastern Pacific Superensemble Experiments .....................................23 4.3 Eastern Pacific Superensemble Experiments Using Filtered Training............28 4.4 Potential Explanations for Experimentation Outcomes...................................31 5. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK ....................................................................60 iv 5.1 Conclusions......................................................................................................60 5.2 Future Work.....................................................................................................61 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................62 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .............................................................................................64 v LIST OF FIGURES 1. Schematic of the steps in a tropical cyclone superensemble forecast..............................7 2. Mean surface level streamline analysis over the Pacific for May .................................14 3. Mean surface level streamline analysis over the Pacific for August .............................14 4. Mean 300 hPa level streamline analysis over the Pacific for July and associated mean July tropical cyclone tracks............................................................................................16 5. Mean 300 hPa level streamline analysis over the Pacific for September and associated average September tracks for tropical cyclones.............................................................17 6. Mean monthly sea-surface temperatures for June .........................................................18 7. Mean monthly sea-surface temperatures for August .....................................................18 8. Mean monthly sea-surface temperatures for October....................................................19 9. 2004 Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone tracks .................................................................21 10. Experiment 1 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................34 11. Experiment 1 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................35 12. Experiment 2 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................36 13. Experiment 2 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................37 14. Experiment 3 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................38 15. Experiment 3 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................39 16. Experiment 4 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................40 17. Experiment 4 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................41 18. Experiment 5 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................42 19. Experiment 5 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................43 20. Experiment 6 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................44 21. Experiment 6 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................45 vi 22. Experiment 7 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................46 23. Experiment 7 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................47 24. Experiment 8 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................48 25. Experiment 8 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................49 26. Experiment 9 RMS Track Errors .................................................................................50 27. Experiment 9 RMS Intensity Errors ............................................................................51 28. Early Times Latitude Model Biases for 2002/2003 Eastern Pacific Training Set (Bias Increment is in Degrees Latitude)......................................................................................52 29. Early Times Latitude Model Biases for 2002/2003 Atlantic Training Set (Bias Increment is in Degrees Latitude)......................................................................................52 30. Actual Early Times Latitude Model Biases of the 2004 Eastern Pacific Numerical Models (Bias Increment is in Degrees Latitude) ...............................................................52 31. Early Times Longitude Model Biases of 2002/2003 Eastern Pacific Training Set (Bias Increment is in Degrees Longitude)...................................................................................53 32. Early Times Longitude Model Biases of 2002/2003 Atlantic Training Set (Bias Increment is in Degrees Longitude)...................................................................................53 33. Actual Early Times Longitude Model Biases of the 2004 Eastern Pacific Numerical Models (Bias Increment is in Degrees Longitude) ............................................................53 34. Early Times Intensity Model Biases of the 2002/2003 Eastern Pacific Training Set (Bias Increment is in m.p.h.)..............................................................................................54 35. Early