Revista de Estudios Sociales 69 | 01 julio 2019 Temas varios Political Realignment in Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro and the Right Turn Realineamiento político en Brasil: Jair Bolsonaro y el giro a la derecha Realinhamento político no Brasil: Jair Bolsonaro e o giro à direita Fabrício H. Chagas Bastos Electronic version URL: https://journals.openedition.org/revestudsoc/46149 ISSN: 1900-5180 Publisher Universidad de los Andes Printed version Date of publication: 1 July 2019 Number of pages: 92-100 ISSN: 0123-885X Electronic reference Fabrício H. Chagas Bastos, “Political Realignment in Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro and the Right Turn”, Revista de Estudios Sociales [Online], 69 | 01 julio 2019, Online since 09 July 2019, connection on 04 May 2021. URL: http://journals.openedition.org/revestudsoc/46149 Los contenidos de la Revista de Estudios Sociales están editados bajo la licencia Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International. 92 Political Realignment in Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro and the Right Turn * Fabrício H. Chagas-Bastos ** Received date: April 10, 2019· Acceptance date: April 29, 2019 · Modification date: May 10, 2019 https://doi.org/10.7440/res69.2019.08 How to cite: Chagas-Bastos, Fabrício H. 2019. “Political Realignment in Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro and the Right Turn”. Revista de Estudios Sociales 69: 92-100. https://doi.org/10.7440/res69.2019.08 ABSTRACT | One hundred days have passed since Bolsonaro took office, and there are two salient aspects of his presidency: first, it is clear that he was not tailored for the position he holds; second, the lack of preparation of his entourage and the absence of parliamentary support has led the country to a permanent state of crisis. In this article, I make an initial assessment of a presidency that was the direct outcome of a pivotal election that fractured the Brazilian political landscape and catapulted an unknown Congressman to the highest political office in the republic. The first part of the article covers the 2018 elections as the critical juncture of the Nova República [New Republic]. The second part delves into the main events Jair Bolsonaro’s first three months in office. KEYWORDS | Bolsonaro; Brazil; democracy; realigning elections Realineamiento político en Brasil: Jair Bolsonaro y el giro a la derecha RESUMEN | Han pasado cien días desde la posesión de Bolsonaro, y existen dos aspectos centrales de su mandato hasta la fecha: primero, queda claro que no está hecho a la medida del cargo que ocupa; segundo, la falta de preparación de su séquito y la ausencia de base parlamentaria han llevado al país a un estado perma- nente de crisis. En este artículo, hago una evaluación inicial de una presidencia que fue el resultado directo de unas elecciones decisivas que fracturaron el panorama político brasileño y catapultaron a un diputado descon- ocido al principal cargo público de la república. La primera parte del artículo abarca las elecciones de 2018 y la coyuntura crítica de la Nova República. La segunda analiza los principales eventos de los primeros tres meses de la presidencia de Jair Bolsonaro. PALABRAS CLAVE | Bolsonaro; Brasil; democracia; realineamiento electoral Realinhamento político no Brasil: Jair Bolsonaro e o giro à direita RESUMO | Cem dias se passaram desde que Bolsonaro assumiu o cargo, e há dois aspectos importantes de sua presidência: primeiro, está claro que ele não foi talhado para a posição que ocupa; segundo, a falta de preparação de sua equipe e a ausência de uma base parlamentar levaram o país a um estado de crise permanente. Neste artigo, faço uma avaliação inicial de uma presidência que foi o resultado direto de uma eleição crítica que fracionou o cenário político brasileiro e catapultou um congressista desconhecido para o mais alto cargo político da república. A primeira parte do artigo trata das eleições de 2018 como um ponto crítico da Nova República. A segunda parte investiga os principais eventos dos três primeiros meses de Jair Bolsonaro na presidência da República. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Bolsonaro; Brasil; democracia; realinhamento eleitoral * The paper is part of my ongoing reflections on Brazilian politics over the past few years, and focuses on the 2018 presi- dential elections. ** Ph.D. in International Relations at the University of São Paulo, Brazil. Research Fellow at The University of Melbourne’s School of Psychological Sciences, Australia. Latest publications: “The ‘Briefing Note’ as a Pedagogical Tool for Teaching Politics and International Relations” (Sean W. Burges, co-author). Journal of Political Science Education 15 (2): 237-246, 2019; “La invención de la inserción internacional: fundaciones intelectuales y evolución histórica del concepto.” Análisis Político 31 (94): 10-30, 2018. * [email protected] DEBATE 93 “Jabuti não sobe em árvore. Ou foi enchente ou foi mão de gente”1 Brazilian saying On 1 January 2019 Jair Messias Bolsonaro took office as aura of victory faded away quickly and already seems the 38th President of Brazil. Elected with 57.8 million stale, and his impact on Congress has never been very votes,2 the former Army captain inherited a country significant, and is still liable to drop further. with dismaying numbers. Upon his inauguration, 12.9 million people were unemployed, and 27.5 million were If the readers are interested in a full account of the first considered ‘underutilised labour force’ —while 37.3 100 days the Bolsonaro presidency, Gonzalez and Leme million were in the informal market with no labour (2019) can provide much greater detail than I cover in protection or social insurance (IBGE 2019). Brazil is this article. In this article, I make an initial assessment the world leader in homicides with 63,380 per year. This of a presidency that was the direct outcome of a critical means 30,8 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants (Ipea & election that fractured the Brazilian political landscape FBSP 2018) —the world average is around 8 homicides and catapulted an unknown Congressman to the high- per 100,000 inhabitants. This is especially problematic est political office in the republic. The first part of the when data show that 50.3% of deaths are young people article covers the 2018 elections as the critical juncture between 15 and 19 years of age, and the rates for black of the Nova República3 [New Republic]. The second part people killed reached 40.2 per 100,000 —whereas for delves into the main events Jair Bolsonaro’s first three the non-black people the proportion was 16 per 100,000 months in office. inhabitants (Ipea & FBSP 2018). Those are just some of the figures besetting the country the new Planalto Pal- I must warn the readers that due to the nature of the task ace tenant was elected to govern. and the ongoing political developments, the reflections recounted here are limited in scope, while they do follow Since Roosevelt coined the term ‘first 100 days’ in 1933, the recent literature (Barros 2019; Nobre 2018; 2019; Pin- it has become commonplace for the press, the Congress heiro-Machado & Scalco 2018; Ramos & Gontijo in press; and the business community to scrutinize the first Singer 2012; 2018). The research uses primary sources actions of the new president in office. It is not a perfect found in the media and interviews4 conducted since Octo- measure, but for some analysts it is a useful one for gaug- ber 2018, complemented by some theoretical reflections. ing presidential effectiveness. Walsh (2009) observes It should be read more like a puzzle with missing pieces that presidents “tend to be most effective when they that will be parsimoniously added by history. first take office, when their leadership style seems fresh and new, when the aura of victory is still powerful, and when their impact on Congress is usually at its height”. 2018 Presidential Elections: Critical Juncture and Political Realignment One hundred days have passed since Bolsonaro took office, and there are two salient aspects of his presi- The political structure that has dominated the Nova dency: first, it is clear that he was not tailored for the República ended on 28 October 2018. Jair Bolsonaro, the position he holds; second, the lack of preparation of his far-right candidate, was elected as Brazil’s president, entourage and the absence of parliamentary support putting an end to the social-democratic pact estab- has led the country to a permanent state of crisis. lished after the generals left power. The reasons for his ascension, however, are not surprising. Within the first three months of his government, Bol- sonaro has failed to show any real effectiveness, his Since the military coup that led to the establishment leadership is virtually non-existent outside Twitter, the of the Republic in 1889, Brazilian politics has been indulgently paternalistic. Any conflict of ideas has been avoided at all costs when it comes to leading and managing social interests (Souza 2009). Brazilian mass 1 This saying literally means that tortoises (jabutis) cannot climb up trees by themselves. The expression is used figu- democracy was created in the 1930s, having the state ratively when one wants to say that on one occasion there as the mediator of conflicts between social interests is obviously something wrong, suspicious, which would —with labour unions and patrons kept under the strong certainly not happen without someone doing it on purpose. arm of the state. This arrangement made it much easier The approximate equivalent in English would be “there is something fishy about it”. 2 The new president received support from only 1/3 of the 3 Nova República [New Republic] denotes the period in the country. Fernando Haddad, the runner-up, received 47.04 history of Brazil starting in 1985, when the civilian govern- million votes —out of 104.83 million valid votes. 89.49 ment was restored after a 21-year-long military regime.