Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Technical Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils FRONT COVER S153(e)/Technical Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Technical Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 2.0 STRATEGIC CONTEXT ....................................................................................... 7 3.0 ECONOMIC CONTEXT ASSESSMENT ............................................................. 34 4.0 DEMAND ASSESSMENT – PROPERTY MARKET ASSESSMENT .................. 48 5.0 DEMAND ASSESSMENT – STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS ..................... 68 6.0 DEMAND ASSESSMENT – COMPANY SURVEY ............................................. 78 7.0 DEMAND ASSESSMENT – FUNCTIONAL ECONOMIC MARKET AREA ......... 99 8.0 DEMAND ASSESSMENT – OBJECTIVELY ASSESSED NEEDS ................... 119 9.0 DEMAND ASSESSMENT – LAND NEEDS OF NON-B CLASS USES ............ 152 10.0 EMPLOYMENT LAND AND PREMISES SUPPLY ........................................... 170 11.0 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................... 204 12.0 RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................... 237 Appendix 1 – List of Consultees Appendix 2 – Business Survey Questionnaire Appendix 3 – Business Survey Responses by Sub-Area Appendix 4 – In and Out Flows of Central Lancashire Commuters Appendix 5 – Chorley Employment Site Proformas Appendix 6 – Preston Employment Site Proformas Appendix 7 – South Ribble Employment Site Proformas Appendix 8 – Sites Scoring Results Appendix 9 – Sites Scoring System Appendix 10 – Employment Areas Analysis Appendix 11 – Central Lancashire Vacant Property Schedules List of Tables and Figures overleaf S153(e)/Technical Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Technical Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils List of Tables Table 1 – Employment Land Reviews – PPG Guidance ................................................... 6 Table 2 – Baseline Assessment of B1 Supply ................................................................. 15 Table 3 – Qualitative Stock Appraisal .............................................................................. 16 Table 4 – Central Lancashire’s Employment Land Supply ............................................ 17 Table 5 – Central Lancashire Total Supply v Forecast Requirements to 2021, ha ....... 18 Table 6 – Chorley Total Supply v Forecast Requirements to 2021, ha .......................... 18 Table 7 – Preston Total Supply v Forecast Requirements to 2021, ha .......................... 18 Table 8 – South Ribble Total Supply v Forecast Requirements to 2021, ha ................. 19 Table 9 – Vision Point One Actions ................................................................................. 23 Table 10 – Identified Growth Sectors .............................................................................. 30 Table 11 – Population Change 2006-2016 ....................................................................... 34 Table 12 – Age Breakdown – Sub Regional .................................................................... 35 Table 13 – Age Breakdown – Local Authority Area ........................................................ 35 Table 14 – Self-Employment, 2016 ................................................................................... 36 Table 15 – Home Working................................................................................................. 38 Table 16 – Skills ................................................................................................................ 38 Table 17 – Median Weekly Pay ......................................................................................... 39 Table 18 – Occupation, by Local Authority Area ............................................................ 40 Table 19 – Sector Employment Breakdown .................................................................... 42 Table 20 – Major Sectors Growth 2009-2015 – Central Lancashire .............................. 43 Table 21 – Business by Size Band 2016 .......................................................................... 45 Table 22 – Enquiries 2006-2016 Type – Chorley ............................................................. 51 Table 23 – Enquiries 2006-2016 Type – Preston ............................................................. 52 Table 24 – Enquiries 2004-2016 Type – South Ribble ..................................................... 53 Table 25 – Property Market Comments – Land ............................................................... 59 Table 26 – Property Market Comments – Industrial ........................................................ 59 Table 27 – Property Market Comments – Office ............................................................. 62 Table 28 – Parish and Town Council Comments ............................................................ 74 Table 29 – Unit size (excluding home based businesses), percent ............................... 82 Table 30 – Type of Accommodation Required ................................................................ 89 Table 31 – Chorley – Premises Supply – Tenure Analysis ............................................. 97 Table 32 – Preston – Premises Supply – Tenure Analysis ............................................. 97 Table 33 – South Ribble – Premises Supply – Tenure Analysis .................................... 98 Table 34 – Central Lancashire Commuting Patterns .................................................... 101 Table 35 – FEMA Issues ................................................................................................. 117 Table 36 – Employment Land Take-Up 1991-2016 ........................................................ 122 Table 37 – Employment Land Take-Up Split – Chorley ................................................ 125 Table 38 – Employment Land Take-Up Split – Preston* ............................................... 126 Table 39 – Employment Land Take-Up Split – South Ribble* ...................................... 126 Table 40 – Full Need, Split by Use Class – Chorley ...................................................... 127 Table 41 – Full Need, Split by Use Class – Preston ...................................................... 127 Table 42 – Full Need, Split by Use Class – South Ribble ............................................. 128 S153(e)/Technical Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Technical Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils Table 43 – Employment Forecasts by Sector, Central Lancashire .............................. 130 Table 44 – Employment Forecasts by Sector, Chorley ................................................ 131 Table 45 – Employment Forecasts by Sector, Preston ................................................ 132 Table 46 – Employment Forecasts by Sector, South Ribble ........................................ 132 Table 47 – Model Assumptions ...................................................................................... 134 Table 48 – Forecast Employment Land and Floorspace Demand based on Oxford Economics Forecasts 2014-2034 – Central Lancashire ............................................... 136 Table 49 – Forecast Employment Land and Floorspace Demand based on Oxford Economics Forecasts 2014-2034 – Chorley .................................................................. 138 Table 50 – Forecast Employment Land and Floorspace Demand based on Oxford Economics Forecasts 2014-2034 – Preston .................................................................. 139 Table 51 – Forecast Employment Land and Floorspace Demand based on Oxford Economics Forecasts 2014-2034 – South Ribble.......................................................... 140 Table 52 – Policy On Forecast Employment Land and Floorspace Demand 2014-2034 – Preston……….. ................................................................................................................ 143 Table 53 – Policy On Forecast Employment Land and Floorspace Demand 2014-2034 – South Ribble………………………………………………………………………………………144 Table 54 – Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 1991-2016 – South Ribble……….. ....................................................................................................... 146 Table 55 – Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 2001-2007 – South Ribble……… ......................................................................................................... 146 Table 56 – Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 1991-2016 – Chorley………….. ............................................................................................................ 147 Table 57 – Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 2001-2007 – Chorley……….. ................................................................................................................ 147 Table 58 – Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 1991-2016 – Preston………… .............................................................................................................. 147 Table 59 – Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 2001-2007 – Preston………… .............................................................................................................