2004 FORECASTS/11-16 LUXURY SECTOR DOWNGRADE/2 WWDWomen’s Wear Daily • The Retailers’MONDAY Daily Newspaper • December 1, 2003 • $2.00 Accessories/Innerwear/Legwear The Match Game NEW YORK — When it comes to coordinating outfits, there’s nobody quite like Barbie. And this season, designers are following the lead of the iconic, 11 1/2-inch fashion doll, blurring the lines that usually divide accessories and clothes. Here, a silk doupioni bag with a matching skirt and shoes and a rayon, cotton and polyester T-shirt, all by Nanette Lepore. For more on the trend, see pages 6 and 7. Post-Thanksgiving Tally: Holiday Shopping Liftoff Fuels 4th-Qtr. Optimism By David Moin NEW YORK — There’s a different ring to STYLED BY ROXANNE ROBINSON-ESCRIOUT; MACY’S PHOTO BY JOHN CALABRESE MACY’S PHOTO BY ROXANNE ROBINSON-ESCRIOUT; STYLED BY Christmas this year and retailers like the sound of it. No one The post- characterized Thanksgiving rush the post- at Macy’s Herald Square Friday. Thanksgiving weekend as a bonanza and retailers remain cautious. But after Friday’s and Saturday’s business, merchants are not wavering from previous forecasts for a healthy holiday season, marked by increased full-price selling, low to mid- See Shoppers, Page8 PHOTO BY KYLE ERICKSEN; MODEL: KATARINA M./ELITE; MAKEUP BY ROANNA AND HAIR BY KELLY GOLA, BOTH FOR WARREN TRICOMI MANAGEMENT; GOLA, TRICOMI MANAGEMENT; BOTH FOR WARREN KELLY ROANNA AND HAIR BY M./ELITE; MAKEUP BY ERICKSEN; MODEL: KATARINA KYLE PHOTO BY 2 WWD, MONDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2003 WWDMONDAY Morgan Stanley ‘Cautious’ About Luxe Accessories/Innerwear/Legwear By Miles Socha as inflated valuations, Kent jus- Kent’s top stock picks for the GENERAL tified the downgrade because sector, rated “overweight” and FASHION: “Matchy-matchy” used to be a derisive term. But this season, the PARIS — Adding a skeptical the luxury sector tends to un- expected to exceed average re- 6 bag should match the clothes, and there are plenty of coordinating looks. voice to rumblings of a near- to derperform ahead of interest turns in the industry over 12 to RETAIL WRAP-UP: Retailers said the holiday season is off to a good start midterm luxury rebound, Mor- rate hikes, which are expected 18 months, are Burberry and and are sticking to predictions for low- to mid-single digit gains. gan Stanley has lowered its view in early 2004, and because of the Richemont. 1 on the sector to “cautious” from continuing negative impact of a HSBC in Paris, which main- Adding a skeptical voice to rumblings of a near- to midterm luxury rebound, “in-line,” warning that stock val- weak dollar against the euro. tains a “neutral” stance on the 2 Morgan Stanley has lowered its view on the sector to “cautious.” ues are looking “excessive” with On the latter point, she ex- luxury industry, also has a cau- FINE JEWELRY: The sparkle should return, as executives feel the economy limited upside potential. Addi- plained that American con- tious short-term view, despite the is on the mend and consumers seem ready to buy luxury again. tionally, the dollar-euro ex- 11 change rate that is forecast for The luxury sector tends to underperform ACCESSORIES: Citing an improved economic climate and salable trends, a next year could hurt sales 12 number of firms project double-digit sales growth in 2004. growth for European luxury INNERWEAR: Makers face what most see as the biggest challenge of the goods by as much as 6 percent. ahead of interest rate hikes, which are “Most companies will see no 16 past decade: the U.S. plan to cap Chinese imports of certain categories. better than high single-digit sales expected in early 2004, and because of EYE: The Sheridans reveal their New York connection…Making a multifunction growth for the next three years 4 cultural space of a British hospital…Meet young master Max Pirkis. with limited room for EBIT mar- the continuing negative impact of a weak gin potential,” Claire Kent, the Obituaries................................................................................................23 investment firm’s chief luxury dollar against the euro. Classified Advertisements ..................................................................22-23 analyst, wrote in a research note To e-mail reporters and editors at WWD, the address is titled “There’s no value here.” sumers are unlikely to tolerate fact that sector drivers continue [email protected], using the individual's name. “We believe the rapid growth in further price increases for Euro- to improve. WOMEN’S WEAR DAILY IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF FAIRCHILD PUBLICATIONS, INC. COPYRIGHT ©2003 the luxury industry in the late pean luxury goods before turning In a research note, analyst FAIRCHILD PUBLICATIONS, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. PRINTED IN THE U.S.A. Nineties was driven by wealth to domestic brands like Coach, Antoine Belge notes that luxury VOLUME 186, NO. 111. WOMEN’S WEAR DAILY (ISSN 0149-5380) is published daily (except Saturdays, Sundays and holidays creation, which is unlikely to Polo Ralph Lauren or Tiffany. firms are unlikely to be bullish with one additional issue every month except July and two additional issues in April, September and December, and three in August) by Fairchild Publications, Inc., a subsidiary of Advance Publications, Inc. PRINCIPAL OFFICE: 7 West 34th Street, New occur again in the near future. In While projections for dollar- on the coming holiday season, York, NY 10001. Shared Services provided by Advance Magazine Publishers Inc.: S.I. Newhouse, Jr., Chairman; Charles H. addition, the industry is much euro exchange could dent growth and stocks are unlikely to con- Townsend, C.O.O.; John W. Bellando, Executive Vice-President and C.F.O.; Jill Bright, Executive Vice-President_Human Resources; more competitive and saturated, for European luxury goods in the tinue to outperform as they have John Buese, Executive Vice-President_ Chief Information Officer; David Orlin, Senior Vice-President_Strategic Sourcing; Robert Bennis, Senior Vice-President_Real Estate; David B. Chemidlin, Senior Vice-President_General Manager, Advance Magazine given the aggressive floor-space U.S. of up to 6 percent, the main since July. Group Shared Services Center. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY and at additional mailing offices. Canada Post expansion among the major positive for the luxury sector is a “We have thus become more Publications Mail Agreement No. 40032712. Canadian Goods and Services Tax Registration No. 88654-9096-RM0001. Canada brands and new entrants.” strengthening yen against the cautious as luxury stocks will not post return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: P.O. Box 1632, Station A, Windsor, ON N9A7C9. POSTMASTER: SEND ADDRESS CHANGES TO WOMEN’S WEAR DAILY, P.O. Box 15008, North Hollywood, CA 91615-5008. “Cautious” is Morgan Stanley’s dollar, which should fuel Japa- find it easy to outperform further FOR SUBSCRIPTIONS, ADDRESS CHANGES, ADJUSTMENTS, OR BACK ISSUE INQUIRIES: Please write to WOMEN’S WEAR lowest industry rating. “In-line” nese tourism and luxury spend- from these levels,” Belge wrote. DAILY, P.O. Box 15008, North Hollywood, CA 91615-5008; Call 800-289-0273; or visit www.subnow.com/wd . Four weeks is means a sector is likely to per- ing, Kent wrote. As for China as He also cited a surging euro as a required for change of address. Please give both new and old address as printed on most recent label. First copy of new subscription will be mailed within four weeks after receipt of order. Address all editorial, business, and production form at par with broad market an emerging growth market, she negative factor, along with a poor correspondence to WOMEN’S WEAR DAILY, 7 West 34th Street, New York, NY 10001. For permissions and reprint requests, benchmarks over 12 to 18 months. pegged its benefits as still being outlook for watches and sluggish please call 212-221-9595 or fax requests to 212-221-9195. Visit us online: www.wwd.com. To subscribe to other Fairchild magazines on the World Wide Web, visit www.fairchildpub.com. Occasionally, we make our subscriber list available to carefully Besides what she described five to 10 years down the road. sales trends in Europe. screened companies that offer products and services that we believe would interest our readers. If you do not want to receive these offers and/or information, please advise us at P.O. Box 15008, North Hollywood, CA 91615-5008 or call 800-289-0273. 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Back as SVP MONDAY: Chicago Fabric & Trim Show (through By Joanna Ramey ported “solid” sales, as demand Tuesday). for software and professional Manhattan Vintage Clothing Show, New York WASHINGTON — A Federal Re- services “stabilized after months At Doneger (through Tuesday). serve report issued Wednesday of contraction,” the Fed said. added another sign that the Discounting was noted in Atlanta By David Moin TUESDAY: Chico’s FAS and Movado report third-quar- economy is back in the pink and and San Francisco, as well. ter earnings. emphasized that “improvements In addition, “most districts said NEW YORK — In two top man- appeared to be reasonably that inventories were well posi- agement changes at The Done- WEDNESDAY: Neiman Marcus Group reports first- broadly based.” tioned, with many retailers keep- ger Group, Tom Burns has re- quarter earnings. The Beige Book, the Fed’s pe- ing stocks lean,” the Fed said.