PERSPECTIVE KyivПредставництво в Україні та Білорусі n UKRAINE-MOLDOVA: COMPETITION, COOPERATION AND INTERDEPENDENCE SERGIY GERASYMCHUK/ANGELA GRAMADA n In the recent years the relationships of Ukraine and Moldova had positive dynamics, which nevertheless is clouded with certain problems, which can be figuratively marked with four “E”s: economy, energy, ecology, and ethnic minorities. The solution of these problems is possible, provided the intergovernmental dialogue continues and the international structures, foremost the EU, further support and mediate this process. n Mutual interests of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova in stability and security in the region became even more relevant and both sides support concordant policy towards Transnistrian settlement, as well as principles of borders inviolability and territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. However, further progress in this sphere largely depends on the results of the 2018 parliamentary elections in Moldova. n The main problem of the bilateral relationships remains unpredictability and mutual lack of trust. This problem can be solved, provided there is political will of both sides, as well as mediatory efforts of active civil society, which remains the main driver for democratization of both countries. n SERGIY GERASYMCHUK/ANGELA GRAMADA | UKRAINE-MOLDOVA: COMPETITION, COOPERATION AND INTERDEPENDENCE n Kyiv n Contents Abstract .................................................................. 4 Ukraine and Moldova – newly emerging challenges and opportunities in bilateral relations . 5 Foreword. 5 Economy, energy - the importance of an efficient commercial partnership after 2014 (market and consumers) ......................................... 5 Environmental problems - hydropower plants on Dniester - common environmental issue ....................................................... 7 An ethnic minority – Ukrainians in Moldova – how difficult is to be a minority representative ............................................................. 8 Moldova in parliamentary debates – political parties leadership, statements, declarations during Parliamentarian sessions ................................. 9 Cross-border cooperation, border management ..............................11 The Transnistria issue – an impossible/possible dialogue .....................11 Moldova and Ukraine - in search of a complex compromise . 14 Introduction ..............................................................14 Problem description/What is the current policy? Why is it being conducted this way?/ Why is the policy not working? Why is it necessary to find an alternative? ..14 Political dialogue between Ukraine and Moldova – the biggest challenge for the political elites .........................................................15 Crimea annexation – before and after presidential election in Moldova. Igor Dodon’s position regarding Crimea annexation ...........................16 The Transnistria issue – a difficult cooperation in the past that is possible now .....................................................................16 Cross-border cooperation, border management ..............................18 An ethnic minority – Ukrainians in Moldova, Moldovans in Ukraine – how difficult is to be a minority representative? ..............................18 Environmental problems, hydropower plants on Dniester - common environmental issue ......................................................21 Conclusion ..............................................................21 Conclusions and Recommendations Grounded on the activities within the Project “Ukraine- Moldova: Competition, Cooperation and Interdependence” . 22 3 n SERGIY GERASYMCHUK/ANGELA GRAMADA | UKRAINE-MOLDOVA: COMPETITION, COOPERATION AND INTERDEPENDENCE n Kyiv n Abstract The ultimate goal is to develop recommendations or alternative suggestions for improving partnership The authors of these two policy papers aim to so that the two state actors can coordinate certain identify the main themes in the bilateral relationship foreign policy actions to prevent for the future between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, new threats to national security that could be which can serve as a basis for developing a new emphasized by inefficient dialogue. agenda for cooperation. Therefore, the aim is to give a perspective on the future strategy of approaching Research tools used to identify the main approach the partnership between Kyiv and Chisinau, towards the bilateral relationship between Ukraine highlighting one by one the strategic interests of and Moldova are the analysis of the official the Republic of Moldova in the relationship with the statements, public policies documents, decisions neighboring state, but also that of Ukraine in the and official speeches, as well as analysis of relationship with Moldova. Another priority of this reports and studies elaborated by Ukrainian approach will be the analysis of the arguments that and Moldovan experts identified as potential made cooperation more difficult in certain periods. influencers of this bilateral dialogue. 4 n SERGIY GERASYMCHUK/ANGELA GRAMADA | UKRAINE-MOLDOVA: COMPETITION, COOPERATION AND INTERDEPENDENCE n Kyiv n Ukraine and Moldova – newly emerging border management and Transnistrian settlement), challenges and opportunities in key success stories in bilateral relations and the bilateral relations possibilities for applying win-win approaches and mutually beneficial strategies which are to be promoted Sergiy Gerasymchuk and advocated by civil society of both countries. Foreword Economy, energy - the importance of The Republic of Moldova and Ukraine’s political an efficient commercial partnership cycles coincide seldom. Its usual practice when after 2014 (market and consumers) the leadership of Moldova is seeking cooperation with Ukraine the Ukrainian government has other The economic relations between Ukraine and priorities and vice versa – the periods of openness of Moldova are at a good level, and Ukraine today is the Ukrainian government happen when the political one of the main trade and economic partners of circumstances in Chisinau are not favorable for Kyiv. the Republic of Moldova. As of 2016 Ukraine was That has already resulted in protracted problems ranked among Moldova’s top-10 trade partners1 and unresolved issues, lack of mutual trust between with the tenth position. the governments and presidents. Currently the countries approach another round of the same cycle The key instrument of interstate economic co- when in the Republic of Moldova the most-likely operation between Ukraine and the Republic winner of the parliamentary elections is sharing pro- of Moldova is Interstate Ukrainian-Moldovan Russian views and believes that cooperation with intergovernmental commission on trade and Russian Federation should dominate the foreign economic cooperation (Ukrainian part of the policy agenda while in Ukraine such approach is Commission is headed by First Vice-Prime perceived as a potential challenge for the Ukraine- Minister, Minister of Economic Development and Moldova bilateral relations. Trade S. Kubiv, Moldovan by Vice-Prime Minister, Minister of Economics O.Calmîc). Besides, the parties rather compete than cooperate although in some issues like economics, According to the Prime Minister of the Republic of ecology of the Dniester river etc. both Ukraine and Moldova P. Filip as of October 6, 2017 the volume of Moldova have huge potential for cooperation and trade between Ukraine and Moldova increased by are interdependent. more than 30% compared with the same period of the last year, and 1,128 enterprises with Ukrainian The possible solution for finding mutually capital operate in the Republic of Moldova2. beneficial solutions in the bilateral relations is rooted in cooperation of civil societies and expert Alongside with the other GUAM partners communities of both countries which have a long (Azerbaijan and Georgia) Ukraine and Moldova record of successful cooperation, speak common reached an agreement to create a free trade language, share the same values and can elaborate zone among the GUAM-member states3 that the strategies of the improvement of the bilateral will give the additional impetus to commercial- cooperation grounded on the win-win approach. economic cooperation and will strengthen Thus the aim of this study is to focus on the most 1. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/MDA sensitive issues in bilateral cooperation emerging recently (e.g. economic tensions, misunderstanding 2. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/2319800-trade-volume-betwe- en-ukraine-and-moldova-increased-by-more-than-30-moldovan-pm.html in energy sector, environmental problems, minority 3. http://open4business.com.ua/guam-member-countries-agree-free-tr issues, political divisions, cross-border cooperation and ade-zone/ 5 n SERGIY GERASYMCHUK/ANGELA GRAMADA | UKRAINE-MOLDOVA: COMPETITION, COOPERATION AND INTERDEPENDENCE n Kyiv n GUAM’s capacities as a transport corridor as Moldovan Prime Minister Pavel Filip resulted in the well. Also both countries benefit from DCFTA agreement to find mutually acceptable solutions with the EU. and to boost trade relations between the two countries that had suffered from the imposition However, it is necessary to admit that there were of trade restrictions by the Republic of Moldova also the cases of economic tensions between since spring of 2016. However, anyway, Moldova Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, in particular