Department for Work and Pensions Research Report No 639 Evaluation of Phase 1 City Strategy Anne E. Green, Duncan Adam and Chris Hasluck A report of research carried out by the Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions © Crown Copyright 2010. Published for the Department for Work and Pensions under licence from the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. Application for reproduction should be made in writing to The Copyright Unit, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, St Clements House, 2-16 Colegate, Norwich NR3 1BQ. First Published 2010. ISBN 978 1 84712 728 0 Views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Department for Work and Pensions or any other Government Department. Contents iii Contents Acknowledgements ......................................................................................... vii The Authors .....................................................................................................viii Summary ...........................................................................................................1 1 Introduction .................................................................................................5 1.1 The City Strategy initiative .................................................................5 1.2 Key evaluation aim and objectives ......................................................8 1.3 The challenges facing an evaluation of CS .........................................8 1.4 The evaluation strategy adopted ........................................................9 1.5 The scope and structure of the report ..............................................13 2 Delivery of local co-ordination of Welfare to Work .....................................15 2.1 The CS vision ...................................................................................15 2.2 Resources for CS ..............................................................................20 2.3 Partnership formation ......................................................................23 2.4 Partners and governance arrangements ...........................................27 2.5 Key messages ..................................................................................30 3 Partnership in practice ................................................................................33 3.1 Assessment of partnership configuration, governance arrangements and leadership .................................................................................33 3.1.1 Partnership configuration and governance arrangements ..33 3.1.2 Leadership and strategic direction in CSPs .........................40 3.2 The implementation and evolution of partnership arrangements ......42 iv Contents 3.3 The scope of partnerships ................................................................45 3.4 Central-local relations ......................................................................51 3.4.1 Introduction ......................................................................51 3.4.2 Working relationships ........................................................52 3.4.3 Enabling measures ............................................................53 3.4.4 Reflections ........................................................................56 3.5 Key messages ..................................................................................58 4 City Strategy Pathfinders’ activities .............................................................59 4.1 Working with the mainstream .........................................................59 4.2 Targeting activities ...........................................................................60 4.2.1 Spatial targeting ................................................................61 4.2.2 Sub-group targeting ..........................................................63 4.3 Engaging hard-to-help groups .........................................................71 4.4 Engaging with employers .................................................................78 4.5 Projects, initiatives and programmes ...............................................87 4.6 Key messages ..................................................................................91 5 Evidence of the impact of City Strategy ......................................................93 5.1 Evidence relating to process .............................................................93 5.1.1 Improvements in partnership working ...............................93 5.1.2 Alignment of priorities .......................................................98 5.1.3 Alignment of funding and budget enlargement ...............100 5.2 Evidence relating to outcomes .......................................................101 5.2.1 Introduction ....................................................................101 5.2.2 Progress against benefit reduction targets .......................103 5.2.3 Employment rate trends ..................................................107 5.2.4 Developing a Comparison Area .......................................109 5.2.5 Modelling benefit off-flows .............................................110 5.3 Evidence of cultural change ...........................................................113 5.3.1 Reflections on new ways of working ...............................113 Contents v 5.3.2 Integration across policy domains ....................................114 5.4 Key messages ................................................................................117 6 Challenges and issues ..............................................................................119 6.1 The shifting institutional and policy landscape ................................119 6.2 The consequences of recession ......................................................123 6.3 Size and geographical coverage of CSPs ........................................126 6.4 Strategy, delivery and outcomes .....................................................129 6.5 Key messages ................................................................................131 7 Key themes and policy implications ..........................................................133 7.1 Key themes ....................................................................................133 7.1.1 The central-local relationship ...........................................133 7.1.2 External and internal evolution ........................................134 7.1.3 Partnership and focus ......................................................135 7.1.4 Labour demand ...............................................................136 7.2 Policy implications ..........................................................................137 Appendix A Topics and evaluation questions set out in the evaluation framework for the local evaluations issued by DWP to CSPs ......139 Appendix B Aide memoire for national level interviews on the City Strategy initiative ......................................................................143 Appendix C Generic questions for electronic survey of CSPs ........................147 Appendix D Enabling measures to support City Strategy and ‘make work pay’ .......................................................................151 Appendix E Benefit and employment rate trends .........................................155 Appendix F Local authorities included in the comparator area .....................159 Appendix G Modelling benefit off-flows ......................................................161 List of tables Table 2.1 City Strategy Pathfinder schema .................................................32 Table 5.1 Nationally determined benefit reduction targets ........................103 Table 5.2 Figures on key benefit levels, February 2009 .............................106 Table 5.3 Nationally determined employment rate targets ........................107 Table 5.4 CSP employment rates, March 2009 .........................................108 vi Contents Table G.1 Dependent variable: log of off-flow rate. Independent variables: log of UV ratio, log of off-flow rate lagged, CS dummy ............................................................167 Table G.2 Dependent variable: log of off-flow rate to work. Independent variables: log of UV ratio, log of off-flow rate lagged, CS dummy ............................................................168 List of figures Figure 1.1 The City Strategy evaluation strategy ..........................................10 Figure 2.1 City Strategy – a basic theory of change .....................................16 Figure 2.2 City Strategy process logic chain .................................................18 Figure E.1 Aggregate key benefit trends across CSP areas, February 2005 to February 2009 ......................................................................155 Figure E.2 Total benefit claimants in each CSP area indexed to May 2007 (i.e. May 2007 = 100), February 2005 to February 2009 ...........156 Figure E.3 CSP employment rates (for people of working age) by CSP, December 2004 to March 2009 ................................................157 Acknowledgements vii Acknowledgements The research team gratefully acknowledge the work and valuable insights of Area Evaluation Advisers – Helen Barnes, Sara Dewson, Del Fletcher, John Flint, Tony Gore, Carol Hayden, Donna-Louise Hurrell, Ken Walsh – and the support and guidance of Steve Munn and Caryl Williams at the Department for Work and