DARPA’s Approach to Innovation: an Alternative Model for Funding Cutting- Edge Research and Development Lawrence H. Dubois SRI International Menlo Park, CA DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 1 Today’s Changing World: Exceptional challenges … and opportunities Schumpeter’s Accelerating Waves Our world is – increasingly complex and chaotic – dynamic, accelerating – non-linear – increasingly multidisciplinary – growing exponentially (e.g., Moore’s Law, Metcalf’s Law) SuccessfulSuccessful innovationinnovation isis notnot thethe resultresult ofof luckluck oror lonelone geniusgenius –– rather rather itit isis thethe resultresult ofof aa disciplined,disciplined, continuouscontinuous improvementimprovement processprocess withwith anan unrelentingunrelenting focusfocus onon creatingcreating thethe highesthighest customercustomer valuevalue DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 2 Success Requires New Ways of Operation: DARPA • DARPA – Defense Advanced Research Advanced Projects Agency – Founded in 1958 in response to Sputnik • Mission – Avoid technological surprise – Innovation in support of national security • Focus: High-payoff technologies and military concepts with an emphasis on Joint – Broader horizon than commercial analogues – More focused than traditional university research – Not bound by military requirements – High-risk is the price to pay • Characteristics – Significant authority with minimal near-term responsibility – Large budgets – Agility – “Top cover” DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 3 Moving up the Value Curve Product commoditization Product and obsolescence Industry Prototype Applied Value Research/ Development Concept NSF/NIH/etc. Investment (Time, Resources) DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 4 Moving Off the Value Curve: Making future technologies available today The DARPA “Grand Challenge” was won by a university team! “Goal creep” Value DARPA – move up the curve and move off the curve Investment (Time, Resources) DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 5 DARPA’s Approach to Innovation Strategy – Flexibility, ability to quickly exploit emerging situations is the highest priority – Emphasize high technical risk, high focus investments – Competition for ideas, reward for quality performance – An investment firm, not an R&D lab, no established constituency – Methodically search for and exploit externally generated ideas – Proactive program management “No matter how smart you are, most of the smartest people in the world are outside your company.” – Bill Joy, Sun Microsystems Operation – Flat, small organization, no long-term investments in facilities or themes – Constant rotation of programs, program managers and Directors (provided by industry, other government agencies, customers) – Highly flexible contracting and hiring capabilities DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 6 DARPA Investment Criteria • What are you trying to accomplish? • How is it done today and with what limitations? • What is truly new in your approach which will remove current limitations and improve performance? By how much? • If successful, what difference will it make? • What are the mid-term, final exams or full-scale applications required to prove your hypothesis? When will they be done? • What is the DARPA “exit strategy?” • How much will it cost? DARPADARPA stillstill supportssupports high-payoffhigh-payoff,, corecore technologiestechnologies ••Information Information TechnologyTechnology ••Materials, Materials, Mathematics,Mathematics, BiologyBiology ••Micro/nano Micro/nano systemssystems ••“The “The IntersectionIntersection ofof Biology,Biology, Information,Information, MaterialsMaterials andand Microsystems”Microsystems” DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 7 Defense Sciences Office: In Practice Respond to technological opportunity (“Miracle Identification”) – Program Manager must be a proactive “Techno-Scout” – Catalyze the creation of new technologies – Focused effort, clear understanding of military needs – Proactive: technical and fiscal flexibility Emphasize a multidisciplinary technical approach – Office is technically diverse – Teaming of universities, Service and federal laboratories, small businesses, large industry, etc. – Mixed risk – combine basic, applied research and development – Seek opportunities at interfaces between conventional disciplines Recognize defense / commercial industry as customer – Military as consumer – Work synergistically with industry (e.g., consortia, cost share, etc.) – Always conscious of an exit strategy DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 8 3-D Chessboard Analogy to Program Management • You know what the goal is -- checkmate! • Start off with many different pieces in different places and with different capabilities (all useful) • Coordinated attack (e.g., teaming) • Moving target (e.g., customer demand) • Changing obstacles and opportunities • The game is won by the proactive player So how does one get it right? DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 9 Technology Development: Typical Approach Present Ideas Future Individual Investigator Individual New Investigator Product / Process Individual Investigator IndividualIndividual researchresearch leadsleads toto aa vastvast arrayarray ofof potentialpotential technologiestechnologies andand discoveries,discoveries, onlyonly aa fractionfraction ofof whichwhich areare combinedcombined toto formform usefuluseful newnew productsproducts // processes.processes. DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 10 A Roadmap to Research is NOT the Answer Good Points - Plan from A to B H w - Path around obstacles y 1 mile . 1 83 . - Provides direction d lv M B r t . a B m o 2222 a n - Defines distance L n e l Huntland l R r. d D . L s 3 a e Mall k n e o c A l a u B B s t But ... i n . * d v - Assumes everyone starts from l B Mopac (Loop1) 5 t r 3 - o I p r the same place i A 3 A Laguna 35th e St. p lu Gloria a d a - Assumes the destination remains * u G fixed - Assumes no new roads will be built (or that an airplane will be invented) DARPA’s role is to build that airplane! - No time information DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 11 Technology Development: End-game Approach Present Anticipated Future Needs Research Teams Research New Teams Products / Processes Research Teams ByBy firstfirst definingdefining thethe desireddesired productproduct // processprocess andand thethe anticipatedanticipated technologytechnology needs,needs, researchresearch teamsteams cancan betterbetter coordinatecoordinate theirtheir effortsefforts andand aa higherhigher raterate ofof returnreturn onon technologytechnology developmentdevelopment cancan bebe realizedrealized faster.faster. DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 12 Direct Methanol Oxidation Fuel Cells: CH OH + H OO Research and Development Issues 3 2 2 Catalyst Formulation Methanol Crossover Catalyst Synthesis Catalyst Performance Surface Chemistry Catalyst Fabrication Support Effects Carbon Support CO2 H2O Anode Kinetics Membrane Performance Cathode Kinetics MEA Fabrication Reaction Mechanism Pressurized Operation Increase Power Density Membrane Synthesis Methanol Concentration Membrane Transport Fluid Flow Increase Efficiency Properties Heat Transfer Improve System Life Direct Methanol Theory Oxidation Fuel Cell Modeling Catalyst Performance In situ Diagnostics Methanol Crossover Decrease Cost Electrochemical Corrosion Membrane Performance . MEA Fabrication . ) Optimum Temperature 2 400 . Optimum Fuel MeOH/O2 Catalyst Deactivation Single Cell 300 Corrosion Performance Water Management Team: Membrane Stability 200 • Universities Fuel Impurities DARPA Program • Industry 100 Low-Cost Separator Materials Begins • Federal Labs Low-Loaded/Low-Cost Catalysts • Small Businesses Low-Cost Membranes 0 MEA Fabrication (mW/cm Power Density 1970 1980 1990 Simple Assembly 2000 Balance-of-Plant Year DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 13 DARPA Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Program: Team Approach (“Cooperation”) University Centers •USC • IIT • Harvard • University of Illinois • CWRU (Clemson, Iowa) Catalyst, Membrane, and MEA Synthesis and Optimization SmallSmall Businesses Businesses •• Giner, Giner, Inc. Inc. Federal Labs ••PSITPSIT •JPL • LANL •Analytic•Analytic Power Power •NRL • ANL •• Lynntech Lynntech Catalyst, MEA, and Stack •ICET•ICET Testing and Evaluation •H•H Power Power Catalyst,Catalyst, MEA, MEA, Stack, Stack, and and SystemSystem Development Development Industry • IFC • 3M • DuPont • Gore Manufacturing Development: Catalyst, Membrane, MEA, Fuel Cell Stack, and Power Module DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 14 Micro Air Vehicle Development: Overstressing the system Potential Missions • Surveillance/reconnaissance • Communications • Chem/bio sensing Components • Motors/batteries • Sensors – Camera – Infrared – Radar – Chem/bio • Radios • GPS • Gyros/control systems • Software DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 15 Micro Air Vehicles: Reality Visible Imagery 1 hour, 47 min flight time Human Piloted ) o Self-stabilized Pitch angle ( DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 16 The Next Generation: Nano Air Vehicles • Goals Performance – 7.5 cm maximum dimension – 10 gram total weight with 2 gram payload Investment (time, resources) – 1000 m range at 5 – 10 m/sec and return – >60 second hover • Develop and demonstrate – Aerodynamic design tools – Lightweight efficient propulsion and power – Navigation, communications and control – Advanced manufacturing and packaging DARPA Innovation 11-05 slide 17 Low-cost Titanium Production: Stimulating new ideas and new applications The titanium value chain Applications ORE TiCl4 Ti Sponge Ti Ingot Ti Alloy Mill Product < $0.1/kg $1/kg $7-10/kg $15-30/Kg >$40/kg TiO2 $1/kg DARPA Program <$4/kg Ti DARPA Innovation