VALP Modelling BCC NE Bucks Local Plan Tests -Technical Report TN02 | 2 30/05/19 BCC NE B ucks Loc al Plan T ests -Tec hnical Report BCC NE Bucks Local Plan Tests -Technical Report VALP Modelling Project No: BRJ10150 Document Title: NE Bucks Local Plan Tests -Technical Report Document No.: TN02 Revision: 2 Date: 30/05/19 Client Name: BCC Client No: BCC Project Manager: Mily Parveen Author: Catherine Hill File Name: M:\Transport Modelling\BRJ10150 VALP Model Runs\Technical Work\Reports\Countywide modelling report\Countywide Modelling Report- VALP 290519.docx Jacobs U.K. Limited NONE www.jacobs.com © Copyright 2019 Jacobs U.K. Limited. The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Jacobs. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs constitutes an infringement of copyright. Limitation: This document has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of Jacobs’ client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs and the client. Jacobs accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this document by any third party. Document history and status Revision Date Description By Review Approved 0 28/02/19 Draft CH TW MP 1 09/04/19 Revision after client comment CH/TP MP MP 2 30/05/19 Revision after client comment CH/TP MP MP TN02 1 NE Bucks Local Plan Tests -Technical Report Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................................ 4 1.2 Scope of study .................................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Development scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Mitigation options ................................................................................................................................ 5 1.5 Structure of report ............................................................................................................................... 5 2. Modelling Methodology ................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 6 3. Development Scenarios ................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 8 3.2 Development summary....................................................................................................................... 8 3.2.1 Do Something ..................................................................................................................................... 9 4. Mitigation options ........................................................................................................................... 10 4.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 10 4.2 Option generation ............................................................................................................................. 10 4.3 Options for appraisal ........................................................................................................................ 10 5. Results ............................................................................................................................................. 12 5.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 12 5.1.1 Congestion ratio ............................................................................................................................... 12 5.1.2 Change in travel time ........................................................................................................................ 12 5.2 Summary of impacts ......................................................................................................................... 14 5.2.1 DM Scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 14 5.2.2 DS scenario ...................................................................................................................................... 16 5.2.3 DS1 scenario .................................................................................................................................... 18 5.2.4 DS2 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 22 5.2.5 DS3 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 26 5.2.6 DS4 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 30 5.2.7 DS5 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 34 5.3 Bletchley Bypass Removal Sensitivity Test...................................................................................... 38 5.3.1 DS Scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 38 5.3.2 DS1 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 40 5.3.3 DS2 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 42 5.3.4 DS3 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 44 5.3.5 DS4 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 46 5.3.6 DS5 Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 48 6. Summary and conclusion .............................................................................................................. 50 6.1 Summary of results ........................................................................................................................... 50 6.2 Summary of individual development impacts ................................................................................... 51 6.3 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................... 52 TN02 2 NE Bucks Local Plan Tests -Technical Report Appendix A. Phase 3 Methodology and Assumptions (taken from the Phase 3 Technical Note, Section 2) Appendix B. Congestion Ratio Plots Appendix C. Change in Travel Time Plots TN02 3 NE Bucks Local Plan Tests -Technical Report 1. Introduction 1.1 Background Jacobs is framework consultant to the Transport for Buckinghamshire Alliance (TfB) between Ringway Jacobs and Buckinghamshire County Council (BCC). Under the terms of this contract, Jacobs is commissioned to undertake transport planning, modelling and appraisal projects on behalf of BCC. Jacobs has previously been commissioned to undertake transport modelling assessments of the impacts of Local Plan developments in Buckinghamshire. Work on the first, second and third phase of the Countywide Local Plan Modelling project, which used a strategic transport model of Buckinghamshire, was undertaken and completed as part of that commission. Further details of this work can be found in the Phase One Forecast Modelling Report 1, the Phase Two Forecast Modelling Report 2 and the Phase 3 Technical Note 3. Following the Vale of Aylesbury Local Plan (VALP) Examination in Public (EiP), Buckinghamshire County Council (BCC) and Aylesbury Vale District Council (AVDC) have asked Jacobs to undertake further modelling using updated Aylesbury and Countywide strategic models, as well as local junction models of Buckingham, in order to assess the impacts of the Local Plan in more detail. This report will build on previous Countywide modelling as AVDC have requested an assessment of new sites around Milton Keynes through the use of new forecast scenarios tested through the Countywide model. The additional sites for assessment are at Eaton Leys and Salden Chase Extension with a revision in development quantum at the previously assessed Shenley Park site. The Phase 3 countywide ‘Do something’ (DS) scenario will be retained as a comparator for the purpose of this modelling, and five further DS scenarios will be developed. 1.2 Scope of study The most recent Countywide modelling undertaken was the Phase 3 work, in which ‘Do minimum’, ‘Do something’, and ‘Do something with mitigation’ scenarios were