LEBANON WATER PROJECT WATER SECURITY ANALYSIS FOR REGIONAL WATER ESTABLISHMENTS (RWE) AND LITANI RIVER AUTHORITY (LRA) FINAL WATER SECURITY ASSESSMENT AUGUST 2019 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by DAI Global LLC. Deliverable 5-Water Security Assessment 1 Deliverable 5-Water Security Assessment i LEBANON WATER PROJECT WATER SECURITY ANALYSIS FOR REGIONAL WATER ESTABLISHMENTS (RWE) AND LITANI RIVER AUTHORITY (LRA) FINAL WATER SECURITY ASSESSMENT PHASE I – IDENTIFICATION AND STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTATIONS FOR POTENTIAL SANITATION PROJECTS PHASE I – IDENTIFICATION AND STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTATIONS FOR POTENTIAL SANITATION PROJECTS Program Title: Lebanon Water Project Sponsoring USAID Office: Lebanon Contract Number: AID-268-N-15-00001 Contractor: DAI Global LLC (DAI) Date of Publication: August, 2019 Author: Lebanon Water Project DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Deliverable 5-Water Security Assessment ii Contents TABLE OF FIGURES .................................................................................................. V LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................... VI LEBANON WATER PROJECT .................................................................................. 7 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 8 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ........................................................................................................................................ 9 BASELINE CONDITIONS ....................................................................................... 11 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................................................... 11 Beirut-Mt. Lebanon Water Establishment .................................................................................................. 11 WATER AVAILABILITY IN BEIRUT-MT. LEBANON .................................................................................................. 12 Beirut-Mt. Lebanon Groundwater Budget ................................................................................................. 12 Beirut-Mt. Lebanon Surface Water Availability......................................................................................... 12 Nahr Beirut River Basin ............................................................................................................................ 12 Nahr Damour River Basin ........................................................................................................................ 12 Awali River Basin ..................................................................................................................................... 12 Nahr Ibrahim River Basin ......................................................................................................................... 12 Nahr el Kalb River Basin ........................................................................................................................... 12 TREND ANALYSIS ................................................................................................... 14 HYDRO-CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ............................................................................................................................... 14 Total Annual Rainfall Trend of Beirut-Mt. Lebanon ................................................................................. 14 Surface Water Level Trends .......................................................................................................................... 15 The Awali River ........................................................................................................................................ 15 The Damour River .................................................................................................................................... 16 The Beirut River ....................................................................................................................................... 16 The Kalb River .......................................................................................................................................... 17 The Ibrahim River .................................................................................................................................... 17 Temperature Trends for Beirut-Mt. Lebanon ........................................................................................... 17 Groundwater Level .......................................................................................................................................... 18 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ................................................................................................... 18 ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS ................................................................................................................................. 19 Population Growth .......................................................................................................................................... 19 Urban Areas Growth in Beirut-Mt. Lebanon ............................................................................................ 20 Water usage and demand per sector .......................................................................................................... 21 SYNTHESIS ................................................................................................................................................................... 22 WATER SECURITY ASSESSMENT ....................................................................... 24 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................................................ 24 HOUSEHOLD WATER SECURITY ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................ 27 Indicator Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................................ 27 Deliverable 5-Water Security Assessment iii Dimension Score .............................................................................................................................................. 28 ENVIRONMENT WATER SECURITY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................ 29 Indicator Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................................ 29 Dimension Score .............................................................................................................................................. 30 ECONOMIC WATER SECURITY ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................. 31 Indicator Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................................ 31 Dimension Score .............................................................................................................................................. 32 HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................................. 33 Indicator Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................................ 33 Dimension Score .............................................................................................................................................. 34 WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................... 36 Indicators Conceptual Framework .............................................................................................................. 36 Dimension Score .............................................................................................................................................. 37 WATER GOVERNANCE ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................... 38 Indicator Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................................ 38 Dimension Score .............................................................................................................................................. 39 WATER SECURITY INDEX FOR BEIRUT MT. LEBANON ............................... 40 SYNTHESIS ................................................................................................................................................................... 40 PROJECTIONS .......................................................................................................... 44 PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................... 44 POPULATION PROJECTION ......................................................................................................................................