ANL/ESD-21/2 Assessment of Light-Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the United States, 2010 – 2020 Energy Systems Division About Argonne National Laboratory Argonne is a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory managed by UChicago Argonne, LLC under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. The Laboratory’s main facility is outside Chicago, at 9700 South Cass Avenue, Lemont, Illinois 60439. For information about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY Online Access: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free at OSTI.GOV (http://www.osti.gov/), a service of the US Dept. of Energy’s Office of Scientific and Technical Information. 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ANL/ESD-21/2 Assessment of Light-Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the United States, 2010 – 2020 by David Gohlke and Yan Zhou Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory June 2021 CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................. vi LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................ vii ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... 9 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 9 2 DATA AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................ 11 3 NATIONAL-LEVEL IMPACTS............................................................................................ 14 3.1 PEV Sales ........................................................................................................................ 14 3.2 Electric Miles Traveled ................................................................................................... 15 3.3 Electricity Consumption by PEVs ................................................................................... 16 3.4 Gasoline Consumption Reduction ................................................................................... 17 3.5 Carbon Dioxide Emissions .............................................................................................. 18 3.6 Contextual Comparisons ................................................................................................. 19 4 VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS .......................................................................................... 21 4.1 All-Electric Range ........................................................................................................... 21 4.2 Energy Efficiency ............................................................................................................ 22 4.3 Size Class and Vehicle Weight ........................................................................................ 23 4.4 Vehicle Performance ....................................................................................................... 25 4.5 Vehicle Manufacturing and Assembly ............................................................................ 26 4.6 Vehicle Price ................................................................................................................... 29 4.7 Battery Capacity and Cathode Chemistry ....................................................................... 30 5 SENSITIVITY ANALYSES .................................................................................................. 32 5.1 Traveler Behavior ............................................................................................................ 32 5.2 Vehicle Sales and Stock .................................................................................................. 32 5.3 Comparable ICE Vehicles ............................................................................................... 33 6 CONCLUSIONS..................................................................................................................... 35 7 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 37 FIGURES 1 Annual electric vehicle miles assumed to be traveled by PEV type and range; total PHEV VMT included for comparison .................................................................................... 12 2 Baseline monthly vehicle miles assumed, derived from (FHWA, 2021) ............................... 13 3 Annual sales of PEVs in the United States by year ................................................................ 14 4 Sales shares of PEVs in the United States by manufacturer, 2011–2019 ............................... 15 5 Electric vehicle miles traveled by LDVs by year ................................................................... 16 iii FIGURES (CONT.) 6 Electricity consumption by PEVs by year .............................................................................. 17 7 Gasoline displacement from ICE vehicles by LDV PEVs by year ......................................... 18 8 National average carbon dioxide emissions from electricity production by year (from EPA, 2021c) .................................................................................................................. 19 9 Portion of key national metrics which are due to PEVs in the United States by year, 2010–2020 ...................................................................................................................... 20 10 All-electric range for PEVs. Left side: sales-weighted average of range in new vehicles sold in each month. Right side: stock-weighted average range for all on- road vehicles. .......................................................................................................................... 21 11 Electric efficiency for PEVs. Left side: distance-weighted average efficiency for new vehicles sold in each month. Right side: distance-weighted average for all on-road vehicles. ..................................................................................................................... 22 12 Cumulative sales of PEVs by EPA size class ......................................................................... 23 13 Average new PEV equivalent test weight compared with all LDV (all size classes, left; cars only, right) ................................................................................................................ 24 14 Average performance indicators for PEVs sold in each month .............................................. 25 15 Assembly location for PEVs sold in the United States through 2020 .................................... 26 16 Assembly location by month and annual sales-weighted AALA domestic content for PEVs sold in the United States from 2010 to 2020 ........................................................... 27 17 Assembly location by month for BEV and PHEV from 2010 to 2020 ................................... 28 18 Average MSRP for PEV sold from 2010 to 2020; average expenditure for light- duty vehicles from BEA included for comparison ................................................................. 29 19 Battery capacity added each year for LDV PEVs in the United States .................................. 31 TABLES 1 Annual Sales of New PEVs, and Total Annual eVMT, Gasoline Reduction, Electricity Consumption, and CO2 Emissions Reduction by On-Road PEVs ........................ 10 2 New Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity (GWh) for BEV and PHEV Each Year Since 2010......................................................................................................................................... 31 3 Comparison of Total Gasoline Reduction and CO2 Emissions Reduction with Different ICE Vehicles for Comparison ................................................................................