China's Foreign Policy Think Tanks: Explaining Institutional Developments and Shifting Roles Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades eines Doktors der Philosophie am Fachbereich Sozialwissenschaften der Universität Hamburg vorgelegt von Pascal Abb aus München Hamburg, 2013 Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Patrick Köllner, Universität Hamburg Zweitgutachterin: Prof. Dr. Heike Holbig, Universität Frankfurt a.M. Ort und Datum der Disputation: Hamburg, 5. November 2013 2 This thesis was written as the result of a dissertation project funded by the Landesexzellenzinitiative Hamburg, which allowed me to participate in the Hamburg International Graduate School for the Study of Regional Powers, jointly organized by the University of Hamburg and the GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies. Due to this grant, I was able to pursue my own studies by linking up with GIGA´s China specialists, conducting the necessary field research trips, and taking advantage of internal review mechanisms to improve the quality of my work. This thesis not have been completed without the excellent supervision of Patrick Köllner, who went out of his way to provide very speedy, thorough and insightful commentary on my drafts. Heike Holbig and Nele Noesselt also offered very valuable suggestions on how to improve parts of this thesis from a sinological perspective. My colleague Nadine Godehardt shared her experience on conducting research in China and introduced me to some of her contacts there, giving me a leg up on my own work. During my own trips to Beijing and Shanghai, I was able to take advantage of the hospitality of China Foreign Affairs University and Fudan University, allowing me to gather first-hand knowledge about these institutions and witnessing the education of China´s next generation of IR specialists. I am particularly grateful to Tong Xin, Qu Bo and Chen Yugang, who not only took the time to answer my questions about their own institutes, but also introduced me to colleagues at other important think tanks. My other interview partners were too numerous to name here, but I am deeply grateful for our talks and the insights that I could glean from them. 3 4 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 China´s rise and the growing influence of think tanks ......................................................................................... 7 1.2 Literature review .................................................................................................................................................................. 9 1.3 Research gap and aims of the study .......................................................................................................................... 12 1.4 Structural outline of the study ..................................................................................................................................... 13 2. Analytical framework and research design ......................................................................... 15 2.1 Definition: what is a think tank? ................................................................................................................................. 15 2.2 Typology ................................................................................................................................................................................ 16 2.2.1 Think tank roles and activities: three ideal types ............................................................................................. 17 2.3 Theoretical framework ................................................................................................................................................... 20 2.3.1 Existing models ................................................................................................................................................................ 20 2.3.2 Synthesis and model development .......................................................................................................................... 26 2.3.3 Organizational creation .............................................................................................................................................. 26 2.3.4 Processes of organizational change: environmental effects ........................................................................ 29 2.3.5 Internal factors ................................................................................................................................................................ 32 2.4 Model presentation and summary ............................................................................................................................. 33 2.5 Methods used in this study ........................................................................................................................................... 36 3. Case Selection and Descriptions ......................................................................................... 38 3.1 Selection criteria ................................................................................................................................................................ 38 3.2 Case profiles ........................................................................................................................................................................ 39 3.2.1 Academies and academy-affiliated institutes .................................................................................................... 39 3.2.2 Agency- and ministry-affiliated institutes ........................................................................................................... 45 3.2.3 Universities and university-affiliated institutes ................................................................................................ 50 4. Intellectuals and the state in modern China ....................................................................... 56 4.1 Conceptual background .................................................................................................................................................. 56 4.1.2 Definition of "intellectuals" ........................................................................................................................................ 56 4.1.2 Distinct groups ................................................................................................................................................................. 60 4.2 Structural environment: State, Party and Nation ................................................................................................ 61 4.2.1 The party-state ................................................................................................................................................................ 61 4.2.2 The nation-state .............................................................................................................................................................. 64 4.3 Historical trends and phases ........................................................................................................................................ 66 4.3.1 State building and Thought Reform, 1949-57 ................................................................................................... 66 4.3.2 Hundred Flowers and Anti-Rightist movements, 1957-58 ........................................................................... 67 4.3.3 Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution, 1958-76 ................................................................................ 68 4.3.4 Reform era, 1978 - 1989 .............................................................................................................................................. 70 4.3.5 Tiananmen and its aftermath, 1989 - present ................................................................................................... 72 4.3.6 From control to cooptation, 2002-2012 ............................................................................................................... 73 4.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................ 74 5. Political conditions: Interests of decisionmakers ................................................................ 76 5.1 Introduction: political elites and primary interests ........................................................................................... 76 5.2 Legitimation strategies ................................................................................................................................................... 77 5.2.1 Revolutionary-ideological strategy ........................................................................................................................ 78 5.2.2 Evolutionary-developmental strategy ................................................................................................................... 79 5.2.3 Domestic strategy choices, 1949-2002 .................................................................................................................. 80 5.3 Foreign Policy strategies ................................................................................................................................................ 82 5.3.1 Alignment with the challenger: 1949-1960