REVIEW OF THE PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SYSTEM Contract OTR-0000-C-00-3438-00 Prepared for Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance Agency for International Development Washington, DC 20523 Prepared by Charles Holliday Science Applications International Corporation 205 Montecito Avenue Monterey, CA 93940 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................... .. 1 SECTION I Introduction... ........... 2 SECTION II Background and Current Practices. 3 SECTION III Domestic Bulletin Review. 12 SECTION IV Alternative Recommendations ......... 16 SECTION V Comments..... 34 SECTION VI Summary .. 36 REFERENCES . ........... ..... 39 APPENDIX.......... .. 41 i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report details the results of a review of the Philippine tropical cyclone warning system. In particular, warning message content and structure was analyzed with respect to how well it causes appropriate public response. This analysis considers the findings of other researchers (most notably Mr. Amadore and colleagues of PAGASA) and the body of knowledge about what motivates people to respond. Mr. Holliday was on-scene at PAGASA while warnings were being issued for one of the two major 1984 typhoon disasters (Agnes, November 1984) and he also surveyed a portion of the disaster area. To this extent many of his impressions are first hand. Mr. Holliday has offered fifteen specific recommen­ dations which, he argues persuasively, should improve public response to PAGASA warnings. All of his recommendations are within the capability of PAGASA to perform with little or no additional assets. Few, if any, appear to require legisla­ tive or ministerial level approval or changes. None require additional communications hardware although the full measure of improvement cannot be realized without a reliable communi­ cations system. Probably the most important recommendations are those which suggest technical changes in the public signal system as well as procedural changes in establishing and changing signals. Of slightly lesser importance is a rec­ ommended re-phrasing of the signal messaes to emphasize the important and to reduce clutter. -1­ Section I INTRODUCTION Typhoon' damage and casualty statistics in the Philippines indicate a disturbing trend in the proportional increase in loss of life compared to damage in recent decades (Kintanar, et al., 1979). The recent disastrous typhoons Nitang (Ike), and Undang (Agnes) during 1984 in which 1800 deaths occurred, unfortunately, proves further evidence of this trend. In the-case of typhoon Ike (1028 killed) track pre­ diction offered relatively few problems, key warning informa­ tion was released *in sufficient time for precautions to be taken, and post disaster interviews revealed most residents hdd heard the warnings in repeated radio broadcasts (Amadore and Holliday, 1985). However, few heeded this advice. The WMO's study of human response to tropical cy­ clone warnings (WMO, 1982) states that a successful warning system encompasses more than just the preparation and dissemi­ nation of warning messages to the population at risk. It must also take into account the human reaction element, and those factors which will trigger an appropriate response to the hazard threat. Thus, a vital function of any warning message is to ensure it produces the desired effect on the audience addressed. The content of the warning, and the wording used is of great importance if it is to be persuasive. Following recommendations by Sanders (1984), this paper reviews aspects of the present PAGASA warning message content and structure, and offers an analysis of alternatives for developing portions of the domestic bulletin. -2­ Section II BACKGROUND - CURRENT PRACTICES 1. Area of Responsibility PAGASA warnings are prepared when tropical cyclones cross westward of 1350 east longitude (south of 250 north latitude) and remain east of 115' east longitude in the South' China Sea. If the tropical cyclone poses a threat to the islands, Domestic Bulletins are prepared. Bulletins to shipp­ ing are issued as long as the storm remains within the area of responsibility. ­ 2. Warning Terminology The alerting system for domestic interests is 6,lin­ eated into three successive threat levels utilizing a signal numbering system (combining wind condition and time of arrival). Definitions for these signals are given below (WMO, 1982). a. Public Storm Signal One (PSS #1): Existence of a tropical cyclone. Winds up to 50 KPH (32 kt) may be expected in the display area within 36 hours. b. Public Storm Signal Two (PSS #2): Tropical cyclone is approaching or passing close to locality. Winds of 60 KPH-100 KPH (32-55 kt) ma be expected in the display area within 24 hours. c. Public Storm Signal Three (PSS #3): The center of the tropical cyclone is expected to pass close to or over the display area. Winds in excess of 100 KPH (55 kt) would be expected over these areas within the next 12 hours. -3­ 3. Domestic Bulletin a. Issuance Times This warning message is prepared for the general public and disseminated to domestic interests every 6 hours (5 AM, 11AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM). Supplement­ ary advisories may be issued if a severe typhoon threatens Manila, otherwise such advisories are in" frequent. b. Format and Content The domestic bulletin is structured into a four-part format following an order of specific details first and warning information second. Its contents in­ clude the following: (1) location and characteristics (2) 12-hr forecast position (3) signal coverage, and storm effects (4) precautionary information. All bulletins begin with a lead paragraph citing the tropical cyclone's location (expressed both as distance and direction relative to a geographic reference point, and as latitude and longitude of the cyclone center), maximum winds near the center (Kph), and the valid time/date of this infor­ mation. In addiiton, a 12-hour movement forecast (direction (16 points of the compass) and speed (Kph)] is provided in­ cluding a well-known reference point (island, island group or city). The second section is short, stating the future location of the cyclone center (12 hours from valid time) in terminology of the preceding paragraph (distance and direction relative to a geographic point, and latitude/longitude). -4­ Bulletins summarize all signal coverage in effect in the third section. The detail of geographical assignment in signal display is dependent on the tropical cyclones relative distance to the archipelago. Storms not of immediate threat (usually PSS#-l) require only broader geographic reference such as large islands (i.e., Samar, Leyte) or island groups (i.e., eastern Visayas). For storms of more immediate threat (PSS#2/3), coverage is expressed in specific province listing including smaller offshore islands (i.e., Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogan and Catanduanes). Each signal level paragraph includes a brief sentence regarding the threat elements likely to affect a locality. The standard elements used are shown in Table 1, and include general weather, wind gust character, and coastal water conditions. The degree of severity is based upon the signal level assigned. Precautionary information is assigned to the final paragraph usually of one sentence length which also contains the time of next bulletin issuance. Precautionary advice is given when PSS#2 or #3 are in effect (see Table 1). Under these conditions, the public is advised to "Take all precau­ tions, and watch for the next bulletin". -5­ Table 1 Hazard Elements and Precautionary Information Contained in the Domestic Bulleti-h General Wind Coastal Weather Conditions Water Conditions Precautions SIGNAL - PSS #1 Occasional Occasional Moderate to Rains/Rains Gusty Rough (Less than 60 Kph) PSS#2 Rains/ Gusty/ Rough and Take all Stormy Strong Gusty Dangerous Precautions (60-100 to Small Watch for Kph) Seacraft next Bulletin PSS#3 Stormy Strong/Gusty Very Rough and Take all Very Strong Dangerous to all Precautions Gusty Seacraft Watch for (above 100 next Bulletin Kph) -6­ c. Examples of Domestic Bulletins (1) Typhoon possible threat to the Archipelago DOMESTIC BULLETIN NUMBER 01 ISSUED AT 10:45 AM 03 NOVEMBER 1984 AT 10:00 AV, TODAY, 03 NOVEMBER TYPHOON "UNDANG" WAS LOCATED 1050 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BORONGAN, SAMAR OR AT 9.3 DEG NORTH LAT. 134.8 DEG. EAST LONG., WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 145 KPH NEAR THE CENTER.-- IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 22 KPH IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SAMAR. FORECAST POSITION: AT 8PM 03 NOV. 830 KMS EAST SOUTHEAST OF BORONGAN, SAMAR OR AT 9.9 DEG. NORTH LAT. 132.8 DEG, EAST LONG. PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL NUMBER ONE NOW HOISTED OVER EASTERN VISAYAS AND NORTHEASTERN MINDANAOIHERE OCCASIONAL RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS OF NOT MORE THAN 60 KPH WILL BE EXPERIENCED TOMORROW. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 PM TODAY. -7­ (2) Typhoon Passing Close to Archipelago DOMESTIC BULLETIN NUMBER FIVE ISSUED AT 10:50 AM JUNE 21, 1985 AT 10AM TODAY 21 JUNE TYPHOON KURING WAS ESTIMATED 540 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF APARRI CAGAYAN OR AT 16.4 DEG N LAT 126.4 DEG E LONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130 KPH NEAR THE CENTER. IT.' IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW AT 18 KPH IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON. FORECAST POSITION: AT 8PM 21 JUNE 380 .KM ESE OF APAPRI CAGAYAN OR AT 17.0 DEG N LAT 124.9 DEG E LONG. PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL NUMBER TWO NOW HOISTED OVER CAGAYAN AND ISABELA WHICH WILL HAVE RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY BECOMING STORMY TOMORROW. COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ROUGH AND DANGEROUS TO SEA CRAFTS. PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL NUMBER ONE REMAINS HOISTED OVER METRO MANILA AND REST OF LUZON WHERE OCCASIONAL RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OF NOT MORE THAN 60 KPH WILL BE EXPERIENCED TODAY. COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH. PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL NUMBER ONE OVER VISAYAS IS NOW LOWERED. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM TODAY. -8­ (3) Typhoon Center will Strike Archipelago DOMESTIC BULLETIN NUMBER FIVE ISSUED AT 10:45AM 01 SEPTEMBER 1984 AT 10AM TODAY, 01 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON NITANG WAS ESTIMATED 390 KM EAST OF SURIGAO CITY OR 265 KM EAS 'SOUTHEAST OF GUIUAN, SAMAR OR AT 09.7 DEG N LAT 129.1 DEG E LONG., WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 185 KPH NEAR THE CENTER.