Caution returns Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe Winter 2018 This publication contains general information only. The publication has been prepared on the basis of information and forecasts in the public domain. None of the information on which the publication is based has been independently verified by Deloitte and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, any of its member firms or any of the foregoing’s affiliates (collectively the “Deloitte Network”) take any responsibility for the content thereof. No entity in the Deloitte Network nor any of their affiliates nor their respective members, directors, employees and agents accept any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness, or in relation to the use by any recipient, of the information, projections or opinions contained in the publication and no entity in Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies thereon. Caution returns | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe Introduction The Central European (CE) private equity (PE) market Croatia and Lithuania are all expected to grow at second fund on €21m, putting it well on its way to its may be reverting to its usual pace of activity following under 3.0%. €55m target after launching in January. A new fund a prolonged period of large exits and fundraisings as has been launched for the Baltics, with Lithuanian well as strong levels of deal-doing. While we remain Exit activity continues apace, with the headline-hitting asset manager Invalda INVL seeking €200m for its confident conditions remain conducive to transacting, homeruns of 2017 giving way to a steadier flow of INVL Baltic Sea Growth Fund to back Baltic businesses respondents are hinting at some caution as we enter mid-market exits dominated by local players. They with revenues of €20-100m, with a first close on a less certain period politically and thus economically. have continued to deliver divestments – 20 during our €100m expected by the end of this year. Other This is reflected in economic expectations as well as observation period – with Poland accounting for six, players to be on the fundraising trail include Innova, our Index, which dropped to 105, its lowest level in Lithuania hosting four and the Czech Republic three. which held a first close in April for its latest vehicle; three years. BaltCap, Abris, MCI and Jet all delivered multiple exits Value4Capital, which announced an €80m first close for their investors. in January 2018 for its €150m Poland Plus fund, is CE’s main trading partners, the EU and the US, are expected to hold a final close on its latest fund in the both in times of flux, with the former grappling with The continued flow of exits is helping to drive coming months. Brexit and what it will mean for the bloc, as well as fundraisings, with Mezzanine Management exceeding Italy’s 2019 draft budget. The US had just delivered its target to reach a final close on €264m for its Fund Progress on the fundraising trail should mean there divisive mid-term election results as this survey went IV. The fund attracted a fifth of its commitments is capital available to deploy into promising CE out, and is battling over trade terms with China. The from local investors, a fairly new development in the businesses. Respondents anticipate a continuation proportion of economic pessimists is thus growing, as region and excellent vindication of CE’s continued of activity levels, with three-quarters (75%) of has been the case since Spring 2017. convergence with Western Europe. It also attracted respondents expecting no change, up from two-thirds a sizeable commitment from a major Asian investor (67%) in our last survey. Expectations of an uptick Despite this apparent caution, GDP growth in the CE for the first time. The China CEE Fund is deploying are at a six-year low, with just a tenth (11%) expecting economies is among the highest in the EU, with CE its latest fund, which held a first close in February activity to increase, down markedly from 31% in the expected to end the year at 4.0%, while Q3 growth 2018 on $800m. BaltCap reached its €100m hard cap Spring. in the eurozone reached a five-year low of 0.2%1. for its Infrastructure Fund over the summer and Jet Slovakia, Poland and Bulgaria are expected to clock Investment closed its latest fund on CZK 4bn (€153m) Financing these deals should remain possible on up over 3.5% next year, though the Czech Republic, in October. Tera Ventures held a first close for its attractive terms, with 93% of respondents expecting 1 https://www.focus-economics.com/regions/euro-area 3 Caution returns | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe liquidity levels to remain the same (82%) or increase Finding opportunities in this dynamic market and (11%) over the next semester. Under a tenth (7%) guiding them along their growth journey is a challenge expect funding to be less available over the coming as well as a privilege for the region’s deal-doers. months, down markedly from nearly a fifth (17%) in We look forward to working with them to transact the last survey. tomorrow’s success stories. The prospects offered in CE remain alluring and so attract non-local players in addition to the region’s core deal-doers. This summer saw Highlander Europe, a US-based growth backer, open its second office in the region, with a Romania presence added to its Mark Jung Warsaw office. The firm cited ‘great promise’ in the Partner, Private Equity Leader region as its reason for the opening. Deloitte Central Europe 4 Caution returns | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe Central European Private Equity Index: Key findings The private equity market in Central Europe has cooled somewhat following a bumper 2017 which was marked by large exits and fundraisings. The current market is one of mid-market opportunities, whether entries or exits, and a number of funds are being raised in this space. The economic backdrop should remain the same, with three-quarters of respondents (75%) expecting it to continue (73%) or improve (2%). A quarter of respondents (25%) believe conditions will worsen over the coming months, up from a fifth (21%) last semester. This may have impacted the Index, which dropped to 105, its lowest level in three years. While confidence is faltering somewhat, conditions remain conducive to deal doing: Q3 growth has slowed but remains strong, forecast to grow at 3.4% in 2019, substantially faster than the eurozone, forecast to grow at 1.7% next year.2 The majority of respondents (75%) expect activity levels to continue, up from last survey, though just a tenth expect activity to increase, down from nearly a third (31%) in the Spring. Deals should be funded by the region’s liquid leverage markets, with 82% expecting current liquidity to be maintained and another tenth (11%) expecting it to increase further. Capital for investment is expected to compete most intensely for market leaders, with 64% expecting these businesses to be the most sought-after. While they are the perennial hotspot for investment, this survey’s response is the highest in two years. 2 https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/eurozone 5 10 12 14 16 18 6 Central EuropePEConfidenceIndex doing versus portfolio management. However in this survey, we find that the Index metrics, such as the outlook for market activity and the balance of deal- Confidence is often based on economic expectations and reflected in other when2018, rising confidence saw the Index remain above its ten-year average. The drop reverses the 18-month rally seen between Autumn and Spring 2016 The Index accelerated its decline to end the at 105, lowest level in three years. 20 40 60 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 Mar. 2003 156 Sep. 2003 148 Mar. 2004 139 Sep. 2004 154 Mar. 2005 14 Sep. 2005 9 155 Mar. 2006 153 Oct. 2006 159 Apr. 2007 11 Oct. 2007 8 102 Apr. 2008 increased, as tends to be the case when confidence dips(see page9). Index’s fall is reflected is in expectations of portfolio management, which has latest shift is gentler, though the Index’s slide steeper. An area where the proportion of pessimists doubled from atenth to afifth(see page 7). The to decline over the coming months, whereas in our previous survey, the markers. For example, aquarter of respondents expect economic conditions confidence decline is sharper than the downturn in prospects for these other 48 Oct. 2008 78 Apr. 2009 117 Oct. 2009 140 Apr. 2010 Caution returns | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe 13 Oct. 2010 8 153 Apr. 2011 70 Oct. 2011 101 Apr. 2012 71 Oct. 2012 101 Apr. 2013 127 Oct. 2013 144 Apr. 2014 114 Sep. 2014 130 Apr. 2015 92 Sep.2015 124 Apr. 2016 109 Sep. 2016 11 Apr. 2017 3 130 Nov. 2017 123 May. 2018 105 Nov. 2018 Caution returns | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe Economic climate (May 2018 vs November 2018) Survey Results 2% Economic climate 25% Deal-doers expect the current economic backdrop to be maintained, with The proportion of pessimists has been growing since Spring 2017, and indeed three-quarters of respondents (75%) expecting it to remain the same (73%) economic growth has slowed in the last few months following a strong run: November or improve (2%). Q3 growth stood at 3.8%, the slowest level of growth for the region in nearly 2018 two years, and down from 4.2% in Q23. While slowing, GDP growth in the Hopes for an improvement have abated, with a quarter of respondents (25%) CE economies is among the highest in the European Union, with Q3 growth anticipating conditions to worsen over the coming months, up from a fifth in the eurozone at a five-year low of 0.2%4.