PAGASA’s SEASONAL LONG-RANGE FORECASTS, PRODUCTS AND CLIMATE SERVICES Presented by: ANALIZA S. SOLIS SENIOR WEATHER SPECIALIST Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) PAGASA and Philippine climate in a nutshell Sub-seasonal to Seasonal forecast products Communicating Climate Information/ Provisioning climate services to user groups Challenges, Summary DOST-PAGASA The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA in a nutshell HILIPPINE as the National TMOSPHERIC, Meteorological and Hydrological EOPHYSICAL & Services (NMHS) of the Philippines is the“authoritative” voice in STRONOMICAL providing the warning for public ERVICES safety. DMINISTRATION 2016 TC Forecast Track Error Year 2016 OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR (KM) FORECAST ERROR (KM) TC Name INTENSITY TC Name 24 hr 48 hr 72 hr 24 hr 48 hr 72 hr 1 AMBO Tropical Depression AMBO 2 BUTCHOY 114.67 192.34 357.85 Typhoon BUTCHOY 114.67 192.34 357.85 3 CARINA 132.78 243.08 243.44 Severe Tropical Storm CARINA 76.20 PROTECTING LIVES, LIVELIHOODS AND 4 DINDO 86.15 146.43 154.21 Typhoon DINDO 86.15 146.43 154.21 5 ENTENG Severe Tropical Storm ENTENG 6 FERDIE 66.50 75.98 106.80 Typhoon FERDIE 66.50 75.98 106.80 7 GENER 83.63 180.90 314.44 Typhoon GENER 83.63 180.90 314.44 PROPERTIES THROUGH TIMELY, 8 HELEN 68.86 148.17 142.12 Typhoon HELEN 68.86 148.17 142.12 9 IGME 68.37 Typhoon IGME 68.37 10 JULIAN 53.48 Tropical Storm JULIAN 11 KAREN 84.49 170.31 360.29 Typhoon KAREN 74.81 186.46 ACCURATE AND RELIABLE WEATHER- 12 LAWIN 52.20 123.48 Super Typhoon LAWIN 52.20 123.48 13 MARCE 222.46 312.79 390.60 Tropical Storm MARCE 216.36 388.91 568.15 14 NINA 89.44 114.91 142.96 Typhoon NINA 89.44 114.91 142.96 Attained Average 93.59 170.84 245.86 Attained Average 90.65 173.06 255.22 RELATED INFORMATION AND Target 100 200 300 Target 100 200 300 DOST-PAGASA SERVICES The Weather and Climate Authority The country is susceptible and vulnerable to the impacts of weather and climate-related hazards… • 20 Tropical Cyclones in a year • Hazards associated with Tropical Cyclone - Strong Winds - Excessive Rainfall & Thunderstorms - Floods - Landslides/Mudflows - Storm Surges - Tornado • ITCZ • Monsoons • Low Pressure Area (LPA) • ENSO (droughts/floods) Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western DOST-PAGASA North Pacific (WNW) during the period 1948-2010 (data The Weather and Climate Authority used : JMA Data set) Cinco, et. al.,2011) Philippine Climatology SEASONAL MARCH OF RAINFALL ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE COUNTRY Southwest Monsoon Northeast Monsoon http://www.meted.ucar.educ http://www.meted.ucar.educ STATE OF PHILIPPINE CLIMATE Annual number of TCs that entered PAR 1951-2015 TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY (1951-2015) - Slightly decreasing trend in TC frequency - The number of extreme tropical cyclones (>150kph) continue to show a slightly increasing trend. The solid blue line indicates the annual total number of TCs in PAR (blue Annual number of extreme TCs (>150kph) that entered PAR from dashed line shows linear trend), solid dark gray line shows number of TCs 1951–2015. Blue bars represent La Niña years, red bars represent El that made landfall and crossed, and dashed light gray line shows number Niño years, and gray bars represent neutral years. of non-landfalling TCs. [Source: PAGASA, published in State of Phil. Climate,2016, OML] [ Source: PAGASA, published in State of Phil. Climate,2016, OML] Climate Monitoring, Sub-seasonal/Seasonal products and services CLIMATE MONITORING CHECKLISTS: https://web.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/climate/climate-monitoring/daily-rainfall. • Day-to-day rainfall monitoring and during Tropical cyclone passage; • Onset of rainy season; • Dry/wet spell; • monitoring NE/SW monsoon onset and cessation; • Temperature anomalies (SST, local) • ENSO monitoring (El Nino/ La Nina possible development) ENSO MONITORING, OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE GLOBAL ADVISORIES INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION SUMMARY CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook CENTERS Updated: 18 May 2017 CPC/ International • ENSO-neutral and El Niño are nearly equally favored Research Institute (IRI), during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall ENSO-neutral is favored through spring (MAM) 2017, with nearly equal chances (~45%) USA 2017. • ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active of El Niño and ENSO-neutral through the remainder of 2017. BureauAs of : 11of MayMeteorology 2017 • Tropical Pacific remains warmer than average (BOM)-Australia • The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, As of : 23 May 2017 meaning there is around a 50% chance—double the normal likelihood—of El Niño developing in 2017. Tokyo Climate • While the above-normal NINO.3 sea surface Center/JMA -Japan temperature (SST) persisted recently, clear signs of El As of: 12 May 2017 Niño development were not observed in April. • The probability is 50% that El Niño event will emerge by the beginning of boreal autumn. (based from SSTA averaged over NINO.3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W) APEC Climate Center, • indicates persistent positive temperature anomaly Busan, S. Korea across the tropical Pacific with the positive El Niño- As of : 25 May 2017 Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. WMO • Most climate models surveyed indicate that basin-wide as of: 28 April 2017 ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through April-June 2017, followed by a 50-60% chance of El Niño Based from model output + Based from model output only development in the subsequent months Human judgment PAGASA: Nearly equal probability for ENSO-neutral and weak El Niño are likely in 2017. While uncertainty is still high in forecast made at this time of the year, all but one model falls within a 1.5ºC range, compared to a nearly 2.5ºC spread of model predictions last month.… Models continue to diverge from MJJ As of mid-May, 24% of combined through end of the year ranging from a dynamical and statistical models predict moderate El Niño to a weak La Niña. ENSO- neutral conditions, while 76% predicts weak El Niño conditions for the May-June-July 2017 season. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 May 2017). ENSO MONITORING, OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected) ENSO MONITORING, OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE CPC/NOAA NMME Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook NMME averages indicate ENSO- neutral conditions are favored to continue through MJJ 2017 These are the participating models being used in PAGASA’s Consensus Forecast. ONE-MONTH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SYSTEM (RUNNING 10-DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST) from GEPS/JMA/TCC https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climps/extended/map_prec.html could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, • Initial runs made 2013; weather and • produced and updated every hydrological events Thursday by PAGASA; across the country • from JMA/TCC GEPS: http://ds.data.jma.go. jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/o utline/index.html 10-DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FARM OPERATIONS utilizing NOAA GFS 10-DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FARM OPERATIONS 6-Mar ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/ Project Areas Ave. Temperature (°C) Rainfall(mm/day) Total Cloud Cover Rel. Humidity (%) Wind Min Max Mean Total Description Description Mean Mean Speed (mps) Mean Direction Tayum (Abra) 20 33 27 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 88 1 E Bucay (Abra) 19 33 26 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 85 1 E Pilar (Abra) 21 33 27 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 92 1 E • zyGrib - GRIB File Viewer Weather data Tineg (Abra) 17 32 25 < 60 LIGHT RAINS MOSTLY SUNNY 94 1 ESE Langiden (Abra) 22 33 28 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 92 1 ENE Daguioman (Abra) 16 29 22 < 60 LIGHT RAINS PARTLY CLOUDY 96 1 ESE visualization Malibcong (Abra) 17 29 23 < 60 LIGHT RAINS PARTLY CLOUDY 98 1 ESE Peñarrubia (Abra) 20 33 27 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 88 1 E Villaviciosa (Abra) 20 33 27 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 89 1 E Dolores (Abra) 19 33 26 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 87 1 E • Being updated every Tuesday and Friday Bangued (Abra) 21 34 27 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 90 1 ENE San Quintin (Abra) 22 34 28 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 93 1 ENE Pidigan (Abra) 22 34 28 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 92 1 ENE San Juan (Abra) 19 32 26 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 88 1 E Tubo (Abra) 16 30 23 < 60 LIGHT RAINS MOSTLY SUNNY 91 1 ESE Manabo (Abra) 19 33 26 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 86 1 E Lacub (Abra) 17 31 24 < 60 LIGHT RAINS MOSTLY SUNNY 97 1 ESE San Isidro (Abra) 21 34 27 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 90 1 E Boliney (Abra) 16 31 24 < 60 LIGHT RAINS PARTLY CLOUDY 91 1 ESE Danglas (Abra) 20 33 27 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 89 1 ENE La Paz (Abra) 20 33 27 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 89 1 ENE Bucloc (Abra) 17 31 24 0 NO RAIN MOSTLY SUNNY 89 1 ESE Lagayan (Abra) 19 32 26 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 88 1 E Luba (Abra) 18 32 25 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 88 1 ESE Lagangilang (Abra) 19 33 26 0 NO RAIN SUNNY 88 1 E Licuan-Baay (Abra) 17 32 25 0 NO RAIN MOSTLY SUNNY 92 1 ESE Tabaco City (Albay) 22 30 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 89 2 NE Guinobatan (Albay) 21 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 94 2 NE Legazpi City (Albay) 22 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 90 2 NE Malinao (Albay) 22 30 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 88 2 NE Tiwi (Albay) 22 30 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 88 2 NE Libon (Albay) 21 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 93 2 NNE Oas (Albay) 21 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 92 2 NNE Bato Lake (Albay) 22 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 94 2 NNE Ligao City (Albay) 21 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 93 2 NNE Bacacay (Albay) 23 29 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 84 3 NNE Pio Duran (Albay) 22 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 91 2 NNE Jovellar (Albay) 22 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 91 2 NNE Daraga (Albay) 22 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 91 2 NNE Manito (Albay) 23 29 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 86 3 NNE Camalig (Albay) 21 31 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 92 2 NE Santo Domingo (Albay) 22 29 26 0 NO RAIN CLOUDY 89 2 NE Polangui (Albay)