HOUSING MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2011 Dudley Housing Market Intelligence Report ‐ 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................8 1.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................8 1.2 THE HOUSING STOCK....................................................................................................................................9 1.3 THE ECONOMIC CLIMATE...............................................................................................................................9 1.4 THE FUTURE POPULATION .......................................................................................................................... 10 1.5 THE HOUSING MARKET .............................................................................................................................. 11 1.6 AFFORDABILITY AND ENTRY TO MARKET HOUSING .......................................................................................... 11 1.7 MIGRATION AND MOVING HOUSEHOLDS....................................................................................................... 12 1.8 HOUSEHOLDS MOVING WITHIN DUDLEY........................................................................................................ 13 1.9 HOUSEHOLDS WITH SUPPORT NEEDS ............................................................................................................ 13 1.10 OLDER PERSONS HOUSEHOLDS .................................................................................................................... 13 1.11 BLACK AND MINORITY ETHNIC HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................. 14 1.12 FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND........................................................................................................................ 15 1.13 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 18 2 SURVEY METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................20 2.1 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................... 20 2.2 PURPOSE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES................................................................................................................. 20 2.3 THE LOCAL AREA....................................................................................................................................... 21 2.4 METHODOLOGY........................................................................................................................................ 23 2.5 SAMPLING ............................................................................................................................................... 24 2.6 PROMOTION ............................................................................................................................................ 24 2.7 SURVEY PROCESS AND RESPONSE ................................................................................................................. 24 2.8 DATA VALIDITY ......................................................................................................................................... 26 2.9 SURVEY WEIGHTING .................................................................................................................................. 26 2.10 GUIDANCE MODEL .................................................................................................................................... 27 2.11 DEFINITIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 27 2.12 DATA SOURCES......................................................................................................................................... 27 2.13 SURVEY HOUSEHOLD DATA......................................................................................................................... 28 2.14 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ................................................................................................................................. 28 3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ...........................................................................................................................29 3.1 KEY FINDINGS........................................................................................................................................... 29 3.2 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 29 3.3 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 30 3.4 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, OCCUPATION AND WORK PLACE DATA ................................................................... 30 3.5 INCOMES AND HOUSING COSTS ................................................................................................................... 32 3.6 EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS .............................................................................................................................. 33 3.7 EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS SEEKING TO MOVE .................................................................................................... 37 3.8 CONCEALED HOUSEHOLDS SEEKING TO MOVE ................................................................................................ 37 4 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE.......................................................................................................................39 4.1 KEY FINDINGS........................................................................................................................................... 39 4.2 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 39 4.3 EXISTING POPULATION PROFILE ................................................................................................................... 39 4.4 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................... 41 4.5 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ......................................................................................................................... 41 4.6 AGE STRUCTURE FORECAST 2008 ‐ 2033 ..................................................................................................... 42 5 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK ............................................................................................................45 5.1 KEY FINDINGS........................................................................................................................................... 45 5.2 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 45 5.3 CURRENT HOUSING IN DUDLEY .................................................................................................................... 46 5.4 UNDER AND OVER‐OCCUPATION ................................................................................................................. 48 5.5 SHARED FACILITIES .................................................................................................................................... 49 5.6 DUDLEY HOME IMPROVEMENT SERVICE ........................................................................................................ 49 2 Dudley Housing Market Intelligence Report ‐ 2011 5.7 ADEQUACY OF PRESENT DWELLING / IMPROVEMENT REQUIRED ........................................................................ 49 5.8 ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS ............................................................................................................ 55 6 THE BOROUGH HOUSING MARKET........................................................................................................56 6.1 KEY FINDINGS........................................................................................................................................... 56 6.2 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 57 6.3 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 57 6.4 NATIONAL PICTURE ................................................................................................................................... 58 6.5 REGIONAL PICTURE.................................................................................................................................... 58 6.6 AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES ............................................................................................................................ 59 6.7 SALES TRANSACTIONS ................................................................................................................................60 6.8 AFFORDABILITY........................................................................................................................................