GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS Carolyn Pumphrey Editor May 2008 Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted. ***** The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. 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ISBN 1-58487-352-3 ii CONTENTS Preface..............................................................................vii Introduction Carolyn Pumphrey........................................................1 1. DEFINING THE PROBLEM .........................................23 A National Security Issue? How People Tried to Frame Global Warming Spencer R. Weart .......................................................23 The Science of Climate Change Robert W. Corell.........................................................45 A Threat Assessment Richard A. Matthew.................................................. 55 Commentator James A. Rotenberg.................................................... 69 Discussion ........................................................................71 2. HUMAN SECURITY .....................................................77 Water, Climate Change, and Human Security Erika Weinthal............................................................77 On Climate Change and Infectious Disease: Implications for Political Destabilization and Conflict Andrew Price-Smith ..................................................86 Climate Change, Population Movements, and Conflict Timothy J. McKeown..................................................99 iii Commentator David Gilmartin.......................................................119 Discussion .....................................................................124 3. U.S. NATIONAL DEFENSE.......................................127 Climate Change: Complicating the Struggle against Extremist Ideology Kent Hughes Butts...................................................127 Under What Conditions Could Climate Change Pose a Threat to U.S. National Security? Joshua Busby.............................................................142 The “Perfect Storm” John T. Ackerman.....................................................155 Commentator Gregory M. Douquet................................................175 Discussion .....................................................................178 4. MEETING THE CHALLENGE ..................................187 International Diplomacy Dennis Tänzler ........................................................187 Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change: The Role of the Corporation Simon Rich ..............................................................202 Climate Change in the American Mind Anthony Leiserowitz................................................213 Commentator Marvin S. Soroos..................................................... 227 iv Discussion .....................................................................232 5. PREPARING FOR A CHANGED ENVIRONMENT..........................................................237 Achilles’ Other Heel: Early Warning Systems Michael H. Glantz....................................................237 Good Governance and Stability Robert H. Dorff.........................................................253 Defense Planning Henry H. Gaffney, Jr................................................260 Commentator William Schlesinger................................................. 273 Discussion .....................................................................276 6. OPPORTUNITIES OR OBSTACLES FOR THE MILITARY ..................................................281 Climate, Energy, and Security—A Related Set of Challenges E. Thomas Morehouse, Jr.........................................281 Military Technology and Renewable Energy David A. Sheets........................................................302 Warfare and Climate Change Karen Lesley Hulme..................................................312 Commentator Christopher H. Schroeder.........................................333 Discussion .....................................................................338 v 7. THE U.S. MILITARY: PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE................................347 The Role of the Military in Civil Support Bert B. Tussing.........................................................347 Peace Operations William L. Nash........................................................366 The Strategic Challenges of the U.S. Army in the Face of Global Climate Change Douglas V. Johnson II..............................................373 Commentator Richard J. Kilroy, Jr..................................................379 Discussion .....................................................................384 8. KEYNOTE AND SUMMATION..................................391 Keynote Address Paul J. Kern..............................................................392 Synopsis and Concluding Remarks Richard Weitz...........................................................408 General Wrap Up .........................................................420 About the Contributors .....................................................431 vi PREFACE On March 30-31, 2007, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and the Triangle Institute for Security Studies (TISS) held a colloquium on “Global Climate Change: National Security Implications.” The 2-day event took place in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and was well- attended by both academics and members of the U.S. Government and the Armed Forces. This edited volume is based on this event. It reflects, as closely as possible, the form and content of the conference. Each chapter is based on a conference panel. The final chapter contains a keynote talk by General Paul Kern (USA-Ret.) and concluding remarks by Dr. Richard Weitz. The first seven chapters each contain three essays, a comment, and a discussion. The essays are not exact reproductions of the talks given at the conference. They remain true in spirit and length to the originals but have been adapted to be read. The question and answer sessions have been abbreviated in the interests of space. The reader who would like to hear exactly what was said at the conference is invited to turn to the video-taped proceedings which are posted on the TISS web site at www.tiss-nc.org. The linkage between climate change and national security has received increasing attention over the last year, and the colloquium provided some timely insights. TISS would thank all those who made it possible. Too many individuals and institutions provided conceptual and other help along the way to be enumerated here. But we would like to acknowledge a few in particular. First, we owe thanks to the U.S. Army War College (USAWC) both for generous financial support and for recognizing this as a subject worthy of serious intellectual discussion. Second, we owe thanks to the vii participants. Their collegiality and professionalism made organizing this event a rare pleasure and the conference itself a success. Besides these, the editor would like to express personal gratitude to a few individuals: Dr. Timothy McKeown, UNC-Chapel Hill, who first suggested that TISS look at the security implications of climate change; Dr. Kent Butts, USAWC, who insisted in the face of the skeptics that such a conference would be worth doing; Dr. Alex Roland, TISS Acting Director, who was instrumental in framing the agenda; and Dr. Douglas Johnson, SSI, who assisted from start to finish. Thanks also go to Michelle Koeneke for her invaluable assistance in organizing the conference and to Joseph W. Caddell, Jr., who read this manuscript. Last but not least, thanks go to Lowell Pumphrey, who wrote his senior thesis on the “Economics of Power Alcohol” (Princeton, 1936). He lived to learn all about the conference, though not to see the completion of this book. This volume is dedicated to him. CAROLYN PUMPHREY, Ph.D. Program and Outreach Coordinator Triangle Institute for Security Studies viii INTRODUCTION Carolyn Pumphrey Triangle Institute for Security Studies The Evolution of a Problem. Until fairly recent times no one thought climate changed, let alone was influenced by human activities. By the 19th