Identifying Command, Control and Communication Networks from Interactions and Activities Observations Georgiy Levchuk, Ph.D., Aptima Inc. Yuri Levchuk, Ph.D., Aptima Inc. CCRTS, 2006 © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 1 Agenda Challenges of tactical operations Proposed integrated solution concept Focus of this research: adversary organization identification Technical approach Results and conclusions © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 2 3 Major Challenges of Tactical Operations Conflicts Trends Technology/Information Trends Adversary’s Trends 70 4500 Past 60 4000 Large-size forces of well-known 3500 50 organizational forms 3000 40 Current 2500 Main telephone lines 30 Small- to moderate-size militia 2000 Mobile cellular forces taking many less #, Millions subscribers 20 1500 Internet users organized forms # of US forces ops forces US # of 10 1000 Future: Adaptive Enemy 0 500 Almost unrestricted ability to 1946-1969 1970-1990 1991-2006 0 connect and coordinate 1992 1998 2004 2010 (est) Years Year Can change size and adapt Past Past structure Slow-time conflict Mainly hard-line communications Numbered engagements Current Internet traffic doubles/year Current 630,000 phone lines installed/week Tactical Planning Issues Asymmetric threats and 50,000 new wireless users/day changing missions 650M SIGINT cables generated High manpower needs (~0.001% to products) Takes long time Future: Increased # of Ops 34M voice mail messages/day High info gaps, complexity, Fast-paced engagements 7.7M e-mails sent/min overload Larger number of and Future: Data Explosion Biases of human decisions higher time criticality Data impossible to analyze manually © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 3 Solution: A System to Aid Battlefield CMDR to Design Effective Counteractions against Tactical Adversary Semi-automated System CMDR & planning staff Battlefield Execute attacks against enemy Gather intel INPUT PRODUCT •comm. intercepts predicted enemy C2 vulnerabilities & counteractions, •events structure, CMDR counter-action disruptions & probes •actions roles, & intent impact assessment plan Outcome: enemy’s performance Challenges degrades Complexity: large data amounts & –incorrect actions –delayed commands solution space to explore –missed critical information and Criticality: limited time for decision engagements Uncertainty: large data gaps © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 4 Notional Scenario: Support Spring Offensive of Urbanistan Government Mission: US SOF assist the army of Urbanistan (AOU) in Suburbistan their spring offensive against the territories held by the Urbanistan militant rebel coalition called True Sons of Urbanistan Dizzikh (TSU). Qashcow ● ● Eddiren Gosh ● Situation: TSU irregulars are well concealed in towns and Ruralstan mountains of their Liberated Zone. Extensive system of tunnels and caves. Porous borders with neighboring countries. Gollyadov: Field Commander of semi- Enemy Command and Control: TSU is led by a independent network of several disparate organizations, formation. Staff of 4-7 ranging from informal cells to military structure. competent personnel. Coordinates with Mountain Martyrs. “Liberated Lions Brigade : 10-12 people, some with FSU Zone” military training. CMDR Abbadirov – Former Soviet Spetsnaz officer. Mountain Martyrs Detachment Uses cell system. Supported by an Qashcow Tribal Council: 10-15 people, control up to 200 influential deputy and 2-3 senior local fighters. Report to Abbadirov but often stays neutral advisers. © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 5 Notional Scenario: Support Spring Offensive of Urbanistan Government Mission: US SOF assist the army of Urbanistan (AOU) in Suburbistan their spring offensive against the territories held by the Urbanistan militant rebel coalition called True Sons of Urbanistan Dizzikh (TSU). Qashcow ● ● Eddiren Gosh ● Situation: TSU irregulars are well concealed in towns and Ruralstan mountains of their Liberated Zone. Extensive system of tunnels and caves. Porous borders with neighboring countries. Enemy Command and Control: TSU is led by a network of several disparate organizations, ranging from informal cells to military structure. Original Plan of the offensive: AOU forces penetrate the Liberated Zone along 4 avenues of approach. NLT H+72 seal the borders. “Liberated Zone” © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 6 Notional Scenario: Support Spring Offensive of Urbanistan Government Mission: US SOF assist the army of Urbanistan (AOU) in Suburbistan their spring offensive against the territories held by the Urbanistan militant rebel coalition called True Sons of Urbanistan Dizzikh (TSU). Qashcow ● ● Eddiren Gosh ● Situation: TSU irregulars are well concealed in towns and Ruralstan mountains of their Liberated Zone. Extensive system of tunnels and caves. Porous borders with neighboring countries. Enemy Command and Control: TSU is led by a network of several disparate organizations, ranging from informal cells to military structure. Original Plan of the offensive: AOU forces penetrate the Liberated Zone along 4 avenues of approach. NLT H+72 seal the borders. Defeat larger units of TSU with the help of US air “Liberated assets and AOU armor. Zone” © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 7 Notional Scenario: Support Spring Offensive of Urbanistan Government Mission: US SOF assist the army of Urbanistan (AOU) in Suburbistan their spring offensive against the territories held by the Urbanistan militant rebel coalition called True Sons of Urbanistan Dizzikh (TSU). Qashcow ● ● Eddiren Gosh ● Situation: TSU irregulars are well concealed in towns and Ruralstan mountains of their Liberated Zone. Extensive system of tunnels and caves. Porous borders with neighboring countries. Enemy Command and Control: TSU is led by a network of several disparate organizations, ranging from informal cells to military structure. Original Plan of the offensive: AOU forces penetrate the Liberated Zone along 4 avenues of approach. NLT H+72 seal the borders. Defeat larger units of TSU with the help of US air “Liberated assets and AOU armor. NLT H+240 force Zone” TSU fighters into several base towns. Isolate and conduct clean-up operations.. © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 8 Notional Scenario: Support Spring Offensive of Urbanistan Government Original Plan of the offensive: AOU forces Suburbistan penetrate the Liberated Zone along 4 avenues of Urbanistan approach. NLT H+72 seal the borders. Dizzikh Defeat larger units of TSU with the help of US air Qashcow ● ● Eddiren Gosh ● assets and AOU armor. NLT H+240 force Ruralstan TSU fighters into several base towns. Isolate and conduct clean-up operations.. Uncertainties in the Original Plan: - Movement of the enemy units (and rapid concentration of forces in well protected areas) - Attempted points of massive exfiltration of TSU into the Dizzikh region and/or across the border - Events that may influence the outcome (e.g., cross-border instigation of uprising in Ruralstan’s town of Gosh) Info to Help Reduce Uncertainty : “Liberated Mountain Martyrs CMDR - Name Zone” - Structure of the enemy C2 Unknown - Locations of the enemy leadership Abbadirov - Ties between TSU and groups in Ruralstan’s Gollyadov town of Gosh NetSTARNetSTAR:: UtilizeUtilize friendlyfriendly inteintell capabilitiescapabilities (US(US multi-INTmulti-INT capabilitiescapabilities plusplus UrbaniUrbani IntService’sIntService’s HUMINT)HUMINT) ttoo fillfill inin thethe blanksblanks inin thethe InfoInfo © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 9 Notional Scenario: Support Spring Offensive of Urbanistan Government Original Plan of the offensive: AOU forces Suburbistan penetrate the Liberated Zone along 4 avenues of Urbanistan approach. NLT H+72 seal the borders. Dizzikh Defeat larger units of TSU with the help of US air Qashcow ● ● Eddiren Gosh ● assets and AOU armor. NLT H+240 force Ruralstan TSU fighters into several base towns. Isolate and conduct clean-up operations.. Summary of NetSTAR findings and follow-up analysis: - Chief Leadership is located at Mountain Martyrs Cell - attempt to exfiltrate in/out/by sea is likely - area is likely well protected; - rapid concentration of forces if assaulted is likely Mountain - Secondary echelon of operational command is Martyrs with Lions Brigade (CMDR Abbadirov) Lions - may conduct a massive exfiltration of TSU into Brigade the Dizzikh region or across the border - likely to initiate distraction maneuvers to divert attention from Chief Leadership Projected enemy strategy: - Two main exfiltration brake-through efforts with possible rapid concentration of forces at Mountain Martyrs area of operations © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 10 Notional Scenario: Support Spring Offensive of Urbanistan Government NetSTAR-aided Plan of the offensive: Suburbistan - AOU forces penetrate the Liberated Zone along Urbanistan 4 avenues of approach. NLT H+72 seal the Dizzikh borders. Concentrate own forces to block Qashcow ● ● Eddiren Gosh ● movement of enemy forces towards Mountain Ruralstan NetSTAR-driven Martyrs. Block sea access. Set up ambush plan groups. modifications - Massive air strikes at Mountain Martyrs and Lions Brigade positions - Defeat larger units of TSU with the help of US air assets and AOU armor. - NLT H+240 force TSU fighters into several base Mountain towns. Isolate and conduct clean-up operations. Martyrs Lions Brigade © 2006, Aptima, Inc. 11 Desired Capability Identify Enemy C2 Structure and Likely Strategy Outcome of applying modified Plan: Enemy force concentration prevented, escape routs blocked; Enemy leadership captured/ annihilated; Enemy forces defeated Battlefield •disruptions & probes plan •observations NetSTAR-driven COA Projected Enemy recommendations: